Kemp and the Quest for 1 bWAR

[thewupk]

These calculations are based on the Braves 128 remaining games and Kemp playing in 116 of them. Kemp has seemed to improve on his DRS number and is on pace to end the year at only -12. While not good that's a step up from previous seasons. So assuming he ends the year -12 in DRS and plays in roughly 140 total games he would need to end the season with an ~800 OPS to reach the 1 bWAR mark. Certainly doable at this point. If his defense starts to tank even worse he would need to step up his offensive game to balance it out.


I'll make updates to this throughout the season.


Update: Kemp is on pace for -18 runs right now instead of the -12 he was when the first post was made. So at this point he needs to finish the season with an 850 OPS instead of the 800 OPS that was originally stated.

[msstate7]

KEMvP gonna lead the rangers to the WC after the deadline.

[nsacpi]

I think he will end up with 2

[smootness]

I think he will end up with 2

He would have to be even better than he's been so far to get to 2.

[smootness]

Since he already has 0.3 bWAR in his back pocket, I think it'd be interesting to see what he would need to do from here on out to accumulate 0.7

[thewupk]

Since he already has 0.3 bWAR in his back pocket, I think it'd be interesting to see what he would need to do from here on out to accumulate 0.7

Assuming the same level of defensive play he would need to have around a 775 OPS the rest of the way to reach 0.7. That's assuming he only misses like 8 more games the rest of the year. So a different level of defensive play and or playing more or less games would change that. But that's a decent ballpark number to go off of for now.

[smootness]

Assuming the same level of defensive play he would need to have around a 775 OPS the rest of the way to reach 0.7. That's assuming he only misses like 8 more games the rest of the year. So a different level of defensive play and or playing more or less games would change that. But that's a decent ballpark number to go off of for now.

He's certainly capable of that offensively.

[thewupk]

He's certainly capable of that offensively.

I agree. The hot offensive start and better than expected defensive play to this point has given him some padding.

[GovClintonTyree]

He's certainly capable of that offensively.

No ****. He's way better hitter than he's given credit by WARriors. An excellent hitter, even.

[thethe]

No ****. He's way better hitter than he's given credit by WARriors. An excellent hitter, even.

His fielding metrics are bogus this year as well.

You can't find me more than 2-3 plays that you said, "A good LF makes that play".

[thewupk]

No ****. He's way better hitter than he's given credit by WARriors. An excellent hitter, even.

Excellent? We'll see how his numbers shake out when his BABIP isn't above 400. He's probably going to end up in the 120-125 WRC+ range offensively is about what I expected.

[Carp]

I think he easily has a .800+ OPS by years end. He's already spent a full half season as a Brave, and has a .880 OPS so far. I think that level of production is a little too optimistic to expect for the rest of the season. But I think he could easily keep up a .825 OPS or better for the rest of the season.

[Enscheff]

He will definitely be able to continue an .800-.850 pace in OPS. His defense will just get worse and worse as this lost season drags on, and his WAR will suffer accordingly.

[GovClintonTyree]

I think he easily has a .800+ OPS by years end. He's already spent a full half season as a Brave, and has a .880 OPS so far. I think that level of production is a little too optimistic to expect for the rest of the season. But I think he could easily keep up a .825 OPS or better for the rest of the season.

Closer to .900, I'll wager. He'll hit his first 20 by accident.

[msstate7]

3-3, 2b tonight

KEMvP bout to snow plow MLB pitching

[nsacpi]

3-3, 2b tonight

KEMvP bout to snow plow MLB pitching

Kemp offended by this thread

[thewupk]

Kemp offended by this thread

A little motivation is all it took. I think Kemp is going to come in at my 1.5 WAR mark.

[thethe]

How many singles does he turn into doubles because he is slow? Kemp is a bad defensive outfielder. I think everybody sees that but homers on this board.

So point them out. Like I said I can clearly remember 2 plays where I said that was a bad play.

The thing about these defensive metrics is that we have no clue how they are claculated. We don't see spread charts and percentages of likely balls to be caught by an average left fielder. Everyone just closes their eyes and treats them like the gospel.

Offensive stats are awesome. Less subjectivity.

[smootness]

We don't see spread charts and percentages of likely balls to be caught by an average left fielder.

Actually, I'm pretty sure you can find these. Enscheff posted some in the offseason.

[sturg33]

Offensive stats are awesome. Less subjectivity.

There is plenty of subjectivity... offensive stat don't account for bloops, and softly hit balls that find holes, and whether or not the defense was in a shift or not.

The argument can be played both ways.

Kemp is pretty dagon awful out there. I remember several plays where I would have assumed the ball could have been caught but it drops in front of him. I also see several plays where the left fielder should be making the play, but Ender does instead. And then the fact that he hurt his hamstring diving for a ball a normal left fielder catches standing up, causing him to miss 2 weeks, also has negative value.

Kemp will be a good player for us if he continues to hit this well. If he continues to hit this well, he will be out performing the last 4 years of his career at age 32... impossible? no. improbably? yes.