Page 10 of 18 FirstFirst ... 89101112 ... LastLast
Results 181 to 200 of 341

Thread: Kemp and the Quest for 1 bWAR

  1. #181
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,668
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    What is the significance of 18m when the roster is projected to be filled with so many internal candidates making next to nothing?
    I guess it depends on when you think our realistic timetable is to compete. As it stands we have Markakis through 2018 and Kemp through 2019. Together they cost the Braves around 29 million in salary. Who is going to be a star free agent after the 2018 season? If we could move Kemp then we would have 29 million off the books to go after someone to push us over the edge with our young team. If 2020 is your time frame then I would try and move Kemp and possibly eat a lot of the contract to get someone who can help us in the future. Then we are done paying for Kemp after 2019 and can allocate resources for someone in FA then. Think 2018 is the year? Then keeping him might be a better option.

  2. The Following User Says Thank You to thewupk For This Useful Post:

    Dalyn (05-21-2017)

  3. #182
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,811
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    29
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    887
    Thanked in
    589 Posts
    Hey you guys remember back when people thought Kemp was good in CF lol?

  4. #183
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    7,772
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    270
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,491
    Thanked in
    1,150 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    That's just the deal. If this season is lost (you have to think it is), then in keeping him...you are betting he can stay healthy and keep producing the same. Although I think he will remain productive....I don't see him doing what he is this year. If we could move even most of his contract and gain a prospect...it would be a MAJOR win. It would clear most or all of the HO money and also give us Wentz and whatever prospect we gain in the trade. It would almost offset the prospects we gave up... not completely, but close. It would literally "almost" erase one of the worst trades in Braves history.
    To me it isn't about saving the Oliveira deal. That's done.

    It's clearing 18 million dollar contract that his last two teams have paid to go away.

    If the FO thinks he's going to put up this offense for two more seasons then all power to them, but I think clearing the cap space to spend on younger pieces might be a better thing.

  5. #184
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    7,772
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    270
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,491
    Thanked in
    1,150 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I guess it depends on when you think our realistic timetable is to compete. As it stands we have Markakis through 2018 and Kemp through 2019. Together they cost the Braves around 29 million in salary. Who is going to be a star free agent after the 2018 season? If we could move Kemp then we would have 29 million off the books to go after someone to push us over the edge with our young team. If 2020 is your time frame then I would try and move Kemp and possibly eat a lot of the contract to get someone who can help us in the future. Then we are done paying for Kemp after 2019 and can allocate resources for someone in FA then. Think 2018 is the year? Then keeping him might be a better option.
    I think 2019 is possible. Heck, I suppose under fairly unlikely circumstances 2018 could be a playoff year. I think spending 29 million on 3B and SP could maybe go a long way.

  6. #185
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,567
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,179
    Thanked in
    3,898 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I think 2019 is possible. Heck, I suppose under fairly unlikely circumstances 2018 could be a playoff year. I think spending 29 million on 3B and SP could maybe go a long way.
    We may not have a need for a SP next year assuming the option on Dickey is exercised. Then Colons salary is allocated to the reat of the team and SRod is back. I really don't see why having Kemp money on the books a big deal.

  7. #186
    It's OVER 5,000! zbhargrove's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Bismarck, ND
    Posts
    11,135
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    766
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,672
    Thanked in
    1,967 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    We may not have a need for a SP next year assuming the option on Dickey is exercised. Then Colons salary is allocated to the reat of the team and SRod is back. I really don't see why having Kemp money on the books a big deal.
    You need one more experienced very good/ace pitcher... sorry that's reality. You can't expect ours rookies to be excellent out of the gate. That rarely happens with pitchers.

  8. #187
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,567
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,179
    Thanked in
    3,898 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    You need one more experienced very good/ace pitcher... sorry that's reality. You can't expect ours rookies to be excellent out of the gate. That rarely happens with pitchers.
    Dickey/Teheran are vets. You need good pitchers first and foremost.

  9. #188
    Making Atlanta Great Again!
    #MAGA!

    Promises MADE, Promises KEPT!
    The Chosen One's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    School of Hard Cox
    Posts
    25,337
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    8,593
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    9,752
    Thanked in
    5,746 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Dickey/Teheran are vets. You need good pitchers first and foremost.
    Neither of those two are good either.
    Forever Fredi


  10. The Following User Says Thank You to The Chosen One For This Useful Post:

    Dalyn (05-21-2017)

  11. #189
    It's OVER 5,000! zbhargrove's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Bismarck, ND
    Posts
    11,135
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    766
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,672
    Thanked in
    1,967 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Dickey/Teheran are vets. You need good pitchers first and foremost.
    Yeah show me who's good that we have? We only have average to slightly above average pitchers at the moment with no guarantee of ANY prospect panning out. We need an established young consistent 1 or 2 and I don't see how it could be argued otherwise.

  12. #190
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,567
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,179
    Thanked in
    3,898 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Yeah show me who's good that we have? We only have average to slightly above average pitchers at the moment with no guarantee of ANY prospect panning out. We need an established young consistent 1 or 2 and I don't see how it could be argued otherwise.
    How do you propose we get that guy? Chris Sale doesn't get traded every year.

  13. #191
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,567
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,179
    Thanked in
    3,898 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Forever Fredi View Post
    Neither of those two are good either.
    I refuse to believe that Teheran has turned to poo overnight. I suspect that is he dealing with some injury issues and at some point this season he will get back to what hes done for his career.

    I just don't see that big pitcher that will be acquire via trade. There are good ones like Quintana/Archer but nothing to the caliber of Sale. We also need to find out which of these young guys can pitch.

    Sometimes, the best thing for a young pitcher is to pitch with a lead. If that is the case then we need to keep Kemp. Maybe it will fade but it seems clear to me that he has a new found motivation to play this game and it is showing in his production. Why trade one fo the best right hand power hitters in baseball? All for a prospect on a team that has by far the best farm system in baseball? For salary relief with no glaring needs (aside from 3B) and a multitude of options from the farm to give us cheap labor? It doesn't make sense to me. The team wants to win. The fans want to win. The time is now - well 2018.
    Natural Immunity Croc

  14. #192
    Boras' Client
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Posts
    4,121
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    528
    Thanked in
    406 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I refuse to believe that Teheran has turned to poo overnight. I suspect that is he dealing with some injury issues and at some point this season he will get back to what hes done for his career.

    I just don't see that big pitcher that will be acquire via trade. There are good ones like Quintana/Archer but nothing to the caliber of Sale. We also need to find out which of these young guys can pitch.

    Sometimes, the best thing for a young pitcher is to pitch with a lead. If that is the case then we need to keep Kemp. Maybe it will fade but it seems clear to me that he has a new found motivation to play this game and it is showing in his production. Why trade one fo the best right hand power hitters in baseball? All for a prospect on a team that has by far the best farm system in baseball? For salary relief with no glaring needs (aside from 3B) and a multitude of options from the farm to give us cheap labor? It doesn't make sense to me. The team wants to win. The fans want to win. The time is now - well 2018.
    Why trade him? Here are a few reasons:

    1. He has an expensive contract and probably can't keep this level up through 2019.

    2. Realistically, most of our young talent begins to pay off around the same time as his contract is up.

    3. Trading an older hitter for a younger hitter (closer to MLB ready), would line up with our rebuild time frame, and would/could pay off for years longer than 2.5 years of Kemp.

    4. $20 million goes a long way in adding talent.

    Obviously if we have a chance for a wild card...sure...keep him. Otherwise, cash that Kemp chip in while you can.

  15. #193
    It's OVER 5,000! zbhargrove's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Bismarck, ND
    Posts
    11,135
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    766
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,672
    Thanked in
    1,967 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    How do you propose we get that guy? Chris Sale doesn't get traded every year.
    Who knows who will be available for trade the next two years?

  16. #194
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,430
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    Why trade him? Here are a few reasons:

    1. He has an expensive contract and probably can't keep this level up through 2019.

    2. Realistically, most of our young talent begins to pay off around the same time as his contract is up.

    3. Trading an older hitter for a younger hitter (closer to MLB ready), would line up with our rebuild time frame, and would/could pay off for years longer than 2.5 years of Kemp.

    4. $20 million goes a long way in adding talent.

    Obviously if we have a chance for a wild card...sure...keep him. Otherwise, cash that Kemp chip in while you can.
    I think "the value proposition" has to be put very high in evaluating any trade offer for Kemp and another other player for that matter. What is the expected productivity of said player and what is the expected surplus value given his contract. Since I want to "win" any trade, especially one that involves transferring current production to the future, I want a bit more in the return that the expected surplus value.

    The question of Kemp's expected productivity is an interesting one. His play since coming to Atlanta suggests he has more left in the tank than appeared to be the case in San Diego. Even his defense has shown signs of improvement, though he remains a below average defender.

    He is on pace for a 3-4 WAR season. Some of that has to be discounted. The .409 BABIP certainly suggests the need for some discounting. Some weight also has to be given to his 2015 & 2016 performances.

    My take is that he is likely to produce about 2 wins per season for the balance of his contract. If some team came along with an offer that effectively values him at 3 wins or more, I would accept the offer.

  17. #195
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,385
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,392
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,745
    Thanked in
    1,974 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Where is our long term power bat option otherwise?
    You were pretty high on Rodriguez before the season weren't you?


    Regardless, we can sign someone for much younger or cheaper that can give us similar overall value or trade for someone.

  18. #196
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,430
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    You were pretty high on Rodriguez before the season weren't you?

    He's also high on Dustin Peterson. And also Travis Demeritte, who can probably make the move to left fairly easily. And Alex Jackson, who could be moved back to left.

  19. #197
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,567
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,179
    Thanked in
    3,898 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    You were pretty high on Rodriguez before the season weren't you?


    Regardless, we can sign someone for much younger or cheaper that can give us similar overall value or trade for someone.
    Who is the option that can give us what Kemp has since he has been acquired? Why are people acting like what he is doing is replaceable with just money?
    Natural Immunity Croc

  20. #198
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,567
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,179
    Thanked in
    3,898 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    He's also high on Dustin Peterson. And also Travis Demeritte, who can probably make the move to left fairly easily. And Alex Jackson, who could be moved back to left.
    Dustin Peterson is not a power bat like Kemp. Not sure what I've said about Demeritte aside from the fact that hte deal to acquire him was highway robbery.

    I am high on Jackson but he is at least 2 years from being in the discussion for the MLB team.
    Natural Immunity Croc

  21. #199
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,385
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,392
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,745
    Thanked in
    1,974 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Who is the option that can give us what Kemp has since he has been acquired? Why are people acting like what he is doing is replaceable with just money?
    Well Kemp isn't likely to continue what he's done so far either...

  22. #200
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Look at Kemp's BABIP. Then look at this career BABIP. If that doesn't tell you how sustainable his current offensive production is, nothing will.

Similar Threads

  1. Mike Trout and the Quest to be the Best
    By zitothebrave in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 20
    Last Post: 06-19-2018, 04:38 PM
  2. Starting pitching bWAR
    By msstate7 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 26
    Last Post: 06-28-2017, 04:39 PM
  3. Kemp
    By msstate7 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 69
    Last Post: 12-16-2016, 09:56 PM
  4. GDT 9/16 Nationals vs Braves; Quest for No. 1 pick resumes!
    By rico43 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 09-17-2016, 03:10 AM
  5. Ichiro and the Quest for 3000 MLB hits
    By zitothebrave in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 04-21-2015, 12:37 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •