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Thread: .500

  1. #21
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Posi-Braves were scarce when I started this thread. They do lots of yapping when the team is winning. Otherwise they lack the courage of their convictions. And when Freeman got hurt they scattered to the hills. Injuries are part of a game. Winning ballclubs overcome them.

    A friend of mine told me an interesting story. I don't know if its true, but I'll share it.

    According to my friend...

    a posi-brave walks into a bar. The bartender asks him, how do you do that?

    do what? replies the clueless posi-Brave

    Walk without a spine...says the bartender

    don't know if its a true story, but I wanted to share it
    “It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.” Senator Bob Corker

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  3. #22
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    As we near the halfway point of the season, I thought it would be useful to look at the departures from projections of individual players and what it implies for the team's record the rest of this year and next year. I'm going to put the departures from projections into 3 broad categories: 1) those that are "real" and can be expected to continue going forward, 2) those that represent good or bad breaks (you can book those but should not expect them to carry forward), and 3) noise.

    I won't say much about category 3. It involves players out-performing or under-performing but not in a major way. In rare cases, all of the deviations in this category break in the same direction and cause the team's record to deviate from projections. I don't think this has happened with the Braves this year. Rather the important deviations have been in the first two categories.

    Category 1 is the most important one because those are the kinds of developments that have more long-lasting implications. I think within this category there are three players who have performed in a way that would make me raise their projected production going forward (Freddie Freeman, Inciarte and Flowers) and one that would make me lower their projected production (Teheran). The net though is fairly significant, about 5 wins between those four. So if you think this was a 75-80 win team at the start of the season, with the changes in expected production of those four you would have to think this is now a 80-85 win team, assuming everything else is about equal with the rest of the roster.

    Category 2 are the good and bad breaks that you can book but should not anticipate carrying forward. There have been two big ones in the first half. One was literally a break--of Freddie's wrist, which should have cost us about 3 wins over the 8-10 weeks he was out. But this has been largely offset by the acquisition of Matt Adams and his hot streak.

    It could turn out that Adams' hot streak is more than a hot streak. The longer it continues the more likely it is something that should be classified as a Category 1 deviation from projections, something "real." I'm not quite ready to go there. It is instructive to compare the improvement we've seen in Adams and Flowers. With Adams a big chunk in the improvement is from ISO. With Flowers it is from the strikeout rate. An improvement in strikeout rate for the kinds of sample sizes we are talking about is more likely to be real or sustainable. The other difference is that the improvement in strikeout rate from Flowers has been going on for a bit longer than the improvement in ISO from Adams.

    I don't mean to imply that there is a black and white distinction between what we've seen from Adams and Flowers this year. But I think there is enough of a difference to say that one is more likely to carry forward to a significant extent over the next year.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 06-25-2017 at 09:51 AM.
    “It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.” Senator Bob Corker

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    It's OVER 5,000! Tapate50's Avatar
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    Is Seitzer doing a great job?

    I know it isn't measurable, but he seemed like he worked with Dansby a ton getting him out of his funk.
    "No thanks, I'd rather sit in the balcony" - Abe Lincoln

  5. #24
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Schedule is about the get tougher, but I like our chances of finishing the season above .500
    “It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.” Senator Bob Corker

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  7. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    -1

    Schedule is about the get tougher, but I like our chances of finishing the season above .500
    yeah, the Braves had it easy for June.. I think I have us winning 17 games in July.. but my glasses are colored homer for sure.

    ** edit.. I have us winning more against the gNats this month.. I think they are in trouble.. still a good lineup, but missing Eaton and Turner plus no pen has them very vulnerable.

  8. #26
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    They play hard and they are out-playing their numbers to this point. Say whatever you want about Adams, but he's helped keep the team afloat. I think Snitker is a terrible--and I mean ridiculously bad--in-game manager, but he must be doing something right.

  9. #27
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    They play hard and they are out-playing their numbers to this point. Say whatever you want about Adams, but he's helped keep the team afloat. I think Snitker is a terrible--and I mean ridiculously bad--in-game manager, but he must be doing something right.
    They've been winning some close games, which always helps. Mott, Freeman and even Jackson have recently been given some high leverage situations and handled them well. I think that's going to be a key. If we are to finish above .500, we're not going to be able to rely entirely on the back end of the pen to handle the high leverage situations.
    “It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.” Senator Bob Corker

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    They've been winning some close games, which always helps. Mott, Freeman and even Jackson have recently been given some high leverage situations and handled them well. I think that's going to be a key. If we are to finish above .500, we're not going to be able to rely entirely on the back end of the pen to handle the high leverage situations.
    Agree. Everyone in the bullpen is going to have to get tough outs. Interesting to see how Brothers does. Bullpens can be like track relay teams in that you keep handing off the baton and hope the guy you hand it to can keep up the pace. Too few relay runners participating results in exhaustion. I think the one thing Coppolella has done in acquiring guys like Luke Jackson is getting some guys who throw serious gas in the pen. Could be a lot of mixing and matching as the season wears on, but if Snitker can get guys into roles where they can succeed, .500 isn't out of the question.

  11. #29
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    If we are going to talk about the success of the pen in the second half then I think we have to talk about Minter. Braves aren't going to play any service time game with a reliever whose arm is about to explode. I would be shocked if he isn't on the roster come August 1st...maybe even sooner.

    If everything you read about him is true this is a guy that could be relied upon as a high leverage arm immediately.
    Warm feelings guy!

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    As we move further into the season the 500 mark seems much more realistic.

    This team is good and will only get better.
    Warm feelings guy!

  13. #31
    It's OVER 5,000! Tapate50's Avatar
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    Heyoo!!!
    "No thanks, I'd rather sit in the balcony" - Abe Lincoln

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  15. #32
    Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is. jpx7's Avatar
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    It was a wild ride, while it lasted.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

  16. #33
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    It was a wild ride, while it lasted.
    taint over...unlike the wimpy pozzies around here I don't run for the hills when the team loses a few
    “It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.” Senator Bob Corker

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