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Thread: .500

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    .500

    I'm curious, who here thinks this team will finish above .500. Not can. But will. As in who believes there is a better than 50% chance this team will finish above .500.

    The consensus around here (which I share) is that this is a 75-80 win team. If this analysis is correct it would take some luck...but not a lot of luck to get above .500.

    Our current pace is for 68 wins. But I think we are playing better than that. Going into today we were one below the pythagorean and another 1 below due to sequencing. So to some extent the 68 win pace understates the underlying performance. I think based on what we've seen so far 75-80 still seems right.

    Who will be Brave enough to say over .500? Don't let anyone intimidate you. Have the courage of your convictions.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-16-2017 at 07:38 PM.

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    Nope. Not with current starting pitching. Hope I am wrong. If the starters don't improve some (and I do think they will), 75 wins ain't happening.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I'm curious, who here thinks this team will finish above .500. Not can. But will. As in who believes there is a better than 50% chance this team will finish above .500.

    The consensus around here (which I share) is that this is a 75-80 win team. If this analysis is correct it would take some luck...but not a lot of luck to get above .500.

    Our current pace is for 68 wins. But I think we are playing better than that. Going into today we were one below the pythagorean and another 1 below due to sequencing. So to some extent the 68 win pace understates the underlying performance. I think based on what we've seen so far 75-80 still seems right.

    Who will be Brave enough to say over .500? Don't let anyone intimidate you. Have the courage of your convictions.
    Im convinced this team is ready for the second Wild Card berth this year.
    Forever Fredi


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    Shift Leader CyYoung31's Avatar
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    We need to overhaul our pitching staff.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    The path to finishing above .500 will have to include getting about 10 WAR from the starting rotation. So far the starting rotation (all of them combined) are below 1 WAR. So obviously someone(s) will have to step up. I think we need the following to happen:

    1) Julion has to pitch like Julion

    2) One of the other starters has to step up

    3) One of the young uns in AAA gets inserted into the rotation and does the job

    There are some alternative scenarios that work as well. Such as several of the current incumbents stepping up big time. Or a trade that upgrades the rotation.

    Those scenarios are less likely. One way or another we need the starting pitching to improve to get to .500.

    To give courage to the timid, I'm gonna step up and be Brave: I think the 2017 Braves will finish above .500.

    There I said it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I'm curious, who here thinks this team will finish above .500. Not can. But will. As in who believes there is a better than 50% chance this team will finish above .500.

    The consensus around here (which I share) is that this is a 75-80 win team. If this analysis is correct it would take some luck...but not a lot of luck to get above .500.

    Our current pace is for 68 wins. But I think we are playing better than that. Going into today we were one below the pythagorean and another 1 below due to sequencing. So to some extent the 68 win pace understates the underlying performance. I think based on what we've seen so far 75-80 still seems right.

    Who will be Brave enough to say over .500? Don't let anyone intimidate you. Have the courage of your convictions.
    Not I said the cat. Depending on how things unfold, I am wary about predicting that our record will be better than last year's.

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    Well with today's news, I'd say that ship has sailed

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The path to finishing above .500 will have to include getting about 10 WAR from the starting rotation. So far the starting rotation (all of them combined) are below 1 WAR. So obviously someone(s) will have to step up. I think we need the following to happen:

    1) Julion has to pitch like Julion

    2) One of the other starters has to step up

    3) One of the young uns in AAA gets inserted into the rotation and does the job

    There are some alternative scenarios that work as well. Such as several of the current incumbents stepping up big time. Or a trade that upgrades the rotation.

    Those scenarios are less likely. One way or another we need the starting pitching to improve to get to .500.

    To give courage to the timid, I'm gonna step up and be Brave: I think the 2017 Braves will finish above .500.

    There I said it.
    You owe me 500 bucks.

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    The Braves had almost no chance to finish .500 with Freeman.

    Without Freeman they have little chance of finishing at .400.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Losing Freeman for 10 weeks will cost us 3-4 wins.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Losing Freeman for 10 weeks will cost us 3-4 wins.
    And still might be around that 81 win mark.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    And still might be around that 81 win mark.
    The Braves were on pace for 73 wins with Freeman hitting at an all-time great level. Let's not get carried away here.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Realistic path to finishing above .500:

    Replacement level starting point is 48 wins.

    Pen + backup catcher: 5 wins. Total 53.

    Outfield 10 wins. Total 63. (can slice it several ways, I'm thinking 5 from Inciarte, 3 from Kemp, 2 from Muk).

    Freeman/Adams 6 wins. Total 69.

    Swanson + Phillips 3 wins. Total 72.

    Third. Zero. Total 72.

    Flowers. 3 wins. Total 75. Yes I know that would represent a career best. But I believe in the late bloomer.

    Starting pitchers. 7 wins. Total 82.

    One way or another we will get a bit more from the rotation than we have so far. Jaime Garcia's last start was promising. I haven't given up on Colon, but if he continues to struggle, I could see Sims or Newcomb providing an upgrade. 7 wins from the rotation is not a lot.

    A mid-season upgrade at third would be helpful.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-23-2017 at 09:29 AM.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    One more thought on .500. External considerations are favorable. We have three poor to very poor teams in our division. Schedule will help us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    One more thought on .500. External considerations are favorable. We have three poor to very poor teams in our division. Schedule will help us.
    I also think your MIF projection is low. But some could argue that others were high.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I also think your MIF projection is low. But some could argue that others were high.
    the two horses I'm riding hard are Inciarte and Flowers

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    My pre seasons prediction was 84 wins. That was assuming full health from Freddie. Adams has impressed me though so I think 78-80 wins is my new prediction factoring in the injury. Before that trade I would have said 75. I had no clue a decent bat like Adams could be or would be acquired.
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  22. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    One more thought on .500. External considerations are favorable. We have three poor to very poor teams in our division. Schedule will help us.
    The schedule has been helping us the entire time really, FG just did an article on easiest schedules so far, and we were third among the easiest schedules. Obviously having the Marlins, Mets, and Phils in our division will keep our schedule from getting too brutal, but our schedule gets tremendously harder in the second half. If we aren't above .500 by the break I certainly can;t see us getting there after with a tougher schedule.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by auyushu View Post
    The schedule has been helping us the entire time really, FG just did an article on easiest schedules so far, and we were third among the easiest schedules. Obviously having the Marlins, Mets, and Phils in our division will keep our schedule from getting too brutal, but our schedule gets tremendously harder in the second half. If we aren't above .500 by the break I certainly can;t see us getting there after with a tougher schedule.
    That's a good point. Although some of our early series against the Mets came before they were decimated by injuries. But yeah, I generally agree that we need to be above .500 at the break to have a good chance of finishing there. There should be some offset, however, from getting Freeman back.

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    Yes. They will. Colon has to go and we have to stop giving leads away. Only a handful under its stupid to give up on the season mid June.

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