Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 33

Thread: .500

  1. #1
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,339
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,383
    Thanked in
    7,532 Posts

    .500

    I'm curious, who here thinks this team will finish above .500. Not can. But will. As in who believes there is a better than 50% chance this team will finish above .500.

    The consensus around here (which I share) is that this is a 75-80 win team. If this analysis is correct it would take some luck...but not a lot of luck to get above .500.

    Our current pace is for 68 wins. But I think we are playing better than that. Going into today we were one below the pythagorean and another 1 below due to sequencing. So to some extent the 68 win pace understates the underlying performance. I think based on what we've seen so far 75-80 still seems right.

    Who will be Brave enough to say over .500? Don't let anyone intimidate you. Have the courage of your convictions.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-16-2017 at 07:38 PM.

  2. #2
    Mashin' to Mississippi
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Posts
    505
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    17
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    162
    Thanked in
    102 Posts
    Nope. Not with current starting pitching. Hope I am wrong. If the starters don't improve some (and I do think they will), 75 wins ain't happening.

  3. #3
    Making Atlanta Great Again!
    #MAGA!

    Promises MADE, Promises KEPT!
    The Chosen One's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    School of Hard Cox
    Posts
    25,330
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    8,590
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    9,747
    Thanked in
    5,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I'm curious, who here thinks this team will finish above .500. Not can. But will. As in who believes there is a better than 50% chance this team will finish above .500.

    The consensus around here (which I share) is that this is a 75-80 win team. If this analysis is correct it would take some luck...but not a lot of luck to get above .500.

    Our current pace is for 68 wins. But I think we are playing better than that. Going into today we were one below the pythagorean and another 1 below due to sequencing. So to some extent the 68 win pace understates the underlying performance. I think based on what we've seen so far 75-80 still seems right.

    Who will be Brave enough to say over .500? Don't let anyone intimidate you. Have the courage of your convictions.
    Im convinced this team is ready for the second Wild Card berth this year.
    Forever Fredi


  4. The Following User Says Thank You to The Chosen One For This Useful Post:

    JohnAdcox (05-17-2017)

  5. #4
    Shift Leader CyYoung31's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    24,232
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,032
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    9,985
    Thanked in
    5,476 Posts
    We need to overhaul our pitching staff.

  6. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to CyYoung31 For This Useful Post:

    Hawk (05-17-2017), jpx7 (05-17-2017)

  7. #5
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,339
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,383
    Thanked in
    7,532 Posts
    The path to finishing above .500 will have to include getting about 10 WAR from the starting rotation. So far the starting rotation (all of them combined) are below 1 WAR. So obviously someone(s) will have to step up. I think we need the following to happen:

    1) Julion has to pitch like Julion

    2) One of the other starters has to step up

    3) One of the young uns in AAA gets inserted into the rotation and does the job

    There are some alternative scenarios that work as well. Such as several of the current incumbents stepping up big time. Or a trade that upgrades the rotation.

    Those scenarios are less likely. One way or another we need the starting pitching to improve to get to .500.

    To give courage to the timid, I'm gonna step up and be Brave: I think the 2017 Braves will finish above .500.

    There I said it.

  8. The Following User Says Thank You to nsacpi For This Useful Post:

    Runnin (06-24-2017)

  9. #6
    Hessmania Forever
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    13,990
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    4,885
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    7,670
    Thanked in
    4,938 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I'm curious, who here thinks this team will finish above .500. Not can. But will. As in who believes there is a better than 50% chance this team will finish above .500.

    The consensus around here (which I share) is that this is a 75-80 win team. If this analysis is correct it would take some luck...but not a lot of luck to get above .500.

    Our current pace is for 68 wins. But I think we are playing better than that. Going into today we were one below the pythagorean and another 1 below due to sequencing. So to some extent the 68 win pace understates the underlying performance. I think based on what we've seen so far 75-80 still seems right.

    Who will be Brave enough to say over .500? Don't let anyone intimidate you. Have the courage of your convictions.
    Not I said the cat. Depending on how things unfold, I am wary about predicting that our record will be better than last year's.

  10. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to 50PoundHead For This Useful Post:

    Hawk (05-17-2017), jpx7 (05-17-2017)

  11. #7
    I <3 Ron Paul + gilesfan sturg33's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    52,428
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,018
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,077
    Thanked in
    5,742 Posts
    Well with today's news, I'd say that ship has sailed

  12. #8
    Shift Leader CyYoung31's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    24,232
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,032
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    9,985
    Thanked in
    5,476 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The path to finishing above .500 will have to include getting about 10 WAR from the starting rotation. So far the starting rotation (all of them combined) are below 1 WAR. So obviously someone(s) will have to step up. I think we need the following to happen:

    1) Julion has to pitch like Julion

    2) One of the other starters has to step up

    3) One of the young uns in AAA gets inserted into the rotation and does the job

    There are some alternative scenarios that work as well. Such as several of the current incumbents stepping up big time. Or a trade that upgrades the rotation.

    Those scenarios are less likely. One way or another we need the starting pitching to improve to get to .500.

    To give courage to the timid, I'm gonna step up and be Brave: I think the 2017 Braves will finish above .500.

    There I said it.
    You owe me 500 bucks.

  13. #9
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,248
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    9,995
    Thanked in
    6,104 Posts
    The Braves had almost no chance to finish .500 with Freeman.

    Without Freeman they have little chance of finishing at .400.

  14. #10
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,339
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,383
    Thanked in
    7,532 Posts
    Losing Freeman for 10 weeks will cost us 3-4 wins.

  15. #11
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,380
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,502
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,175
    Thanked in
    3,894 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Losing Freeman for 10 weeks will cost us 3-4 wins.
    And still might be around that 81 win mark.

  16. #12
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,650
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,719
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,732
    Thanked in
    5,830 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    And still might be around that 81 win mark.
    The Braves were on pace for 73 wins with Freeman hitting at an all-time great level. Let's not get carried away here.

  17. #13
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,339
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,383
    Thanked in
    7,532 Posts
    Realistic path to finishing above .500:

    Replacement level starting point is 48 wins.

    Pen + backup catcher: 5 wins. Total 53.

    Outfield 10 wins. Total 63. (can slice it several ways, I'm thinking 5 from Inciarte, 3 from Kemp, 2 from Muk).

    Freeman/Adams 6 wins. Total 69.

    Swanson + Phillips 3 wins. Total 72.

    Third. Zero. Total 72.

    Flowers. 3 wins. Total 75. Yes I know that would represent a career best. But I believe in the late bloomer.

    Starting pitchers. 7 wins. Total 82.

    One way or another we will get a bit more from the rotation than we have so far. Jaime Garcia's last start was promising. I haven't given up on Colon, but if he continues to struggle, I could see Sims or Newcomb providing an upgrade. 7 wins from the rotation is not a lot.

    A mid-season upgrade at third would be helpful.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-23-2017 at 09:29 AM.

  18. #14
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,339
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,383
    Thanked in
    7,532 Posts
    One more thought on .500. External considerations are favorable. We have three poor to very poor teams in our division. Schedule will help us.

  19. #15
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,380
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,502
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,175
    Thanked in
    3,894 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    One more thought on .500. External considerations are favorable. We have three poor to very poor teams in our division. Schedule will help us.
    I also think your MIF projection is low. But some could argue that others were high.

  20. #16
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,339
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,383
    Thanked in
    7,532 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I also think your MIF projection is low. But some could argue that others were high.
    the two horses I'm riding hard are Inciarte and Flowers

  21. #17
    It's OVER 5,000! cajunrevenge's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    uranus
    Posts
    24,974
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    4,477
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    3,785
    Thanked in
    2,703 Posts
    My pre seasons prediction was 84 wins. That was assuming full health from Freddie. Adams has impressed me though so I think 78-80 wins is my new prediction factoring in the injury. Before that trade I would have said 75. I had no clue a decent bat like Adams could be or would be acquired.
    "Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.

    It’s over."


    Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.

  22. #18
    Where's My Cup of Coffee?
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    1,147
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    196
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    338
    Thanked in
    261 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    One more thought on .500. External considerations are favorable. We have three poor to very poor teams in our division. Schedule will help us.
    The schedule has been helping us the entire time really, FG just did an article on easiest schedules so far, and we were third among the easiest schedules. Obviously having the Marlins, Mets, and Phils in our division will keep our schedule from getting too brutal, but our schedule gets tremendously harder in the second half. If we aren't above .500 by the break I certainly can;t see us getting there after with a tougher schedule.

  23. #19
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,339
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,383
    Thanked in
    7,532 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by auyushu View Post
    The schedule has been helping us the entire time really, FG just did an article on easiest schedules so far, and we were third among the easiest schedules. Obviously having the Marlins, Mets, and Phils in our division will keep our schedule from getting too brutal, but our schedule gets tremendously harder in the second half. If we aren't above .500 by the break I certainly can;t see us getting there after with a tougher schedule.
    That's a good point. Although some of our early series against the Mets came before they were decimated by injuries. But yeah, I generally agree that we need to be above .500 at the break to have a good chance of finishing there. There should be some offset, however, from getting Freeman back.

  24. #20
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,886
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    481
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    431
    Thanked in
    314 Posts
    Yes. They will. Colon has to go and we have to stop giving leads away. Only a handful under its stupid to give up on the season mid June.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •