Is the rebuild in trouble?

[Slippyjms]

I understand this might be a bit premature but I also feel is something that needs to be discussed. Instead of busting out Swanson is busting at the MLB level. At the same time Albies has been struggling a bit in AAA. As unfortunate as it would be I think there has to be some thought as to what if both bust and what the plan from there would be. We also have no long term solution at 3b.

In addition our pitching has been shaky. Tehran has fallen on hard times and Blair and Wisler have already busted. Also we still don't have that true ace in the organization. I've got Folty and Newk on the list of potiental true aces but neither are consistent.

I feel like our long term core right now just consists of Freeman Inciarte Acuna and Matian.

[smootness]

Uh, no?

And LOL on writing off Swanson and Albies.

[NinersSBChamps]

You must be new around here. The John's can do wrong. If players don't reach their potential it's not the Braves fault...somewhere along the lines someone messed up a scouting report or something.

[Julio3000]

I'm really disappointed with Swanson's 2017 but struggling=/= busting. I'm not particularly worried about Albies, either, given his age. Blair and Wisler--though they have been hyped at times--aren't really being counted on to be major foundational pieces. Inconsistency from the young arms is just par for the course, I think.

This team has a LONG way to go to be a real competitor, but saying that the rebuild is in trouble is more than a stretch. We have a highly-rated system and (at last) some position-player talent, albeit in the low minors. We have some trade chips and financial flexibility. Don't expect too much too soon and you won't be disappointed.

[bravesfanMatt]

You must be new around here. The John's can do wrong. If players don't reach their potential it's not the Braves fault...somewhere along the lines someone messed up a scouting report or something.

The Johns have messed up. Probably their biggest mistake was trying to please fans like you by trying to compete in 2017

[thewupk]

It's not in trouble but there have been several disappointing starts to the season by key players in the rebuild.

[nsacpi]

There has been one pattern that I find somewhat concerning. Which is that the positive surprises in terms of prospect performance have come mainly at the lower levels of the minors while the negative surprises have come mainly when prospects have hit AAA and the majors. It might be just a fluke. But so far we have yet to see any individual prospect acquired during the rebuild establish himself as a 2+ win player at the major league level. The ones who have reached the majors (and we have several who have at one time or another been ranked as a Top 100 prospect) have been a little slow so far in establishing themselves.

[smootness]

It's not in trouble but there have been several disappointing starts to the season by key player in the rebuild.

Swanson, sure. Albies, maybe a little. Beyond that, I'm actually very pleased with the way our guys have progressed this year.

Newcomb - steady or slightly up
Sims - up
Fried - maybe down a little, but his ST still has me up on him
Allard - way up
Soroka - way up
Acuna - way up
Weigel - steady or slightly up
Gohara - up
Touki - up
Demeritte - up
Riley - steady/slightly up
Jackson - up
Anderson - up
Wentz - up
Pache - up
Cruz - down
Sanchez - up
Wilson - up
Herbert - steady or slightly down
Cumberland - up
Davidson - down
Peterson - just started
Muller - hasn't started yet
Maitan/int'l signing - haven't started yet

I don't see many disappointing starts to key players.

[Hawk]

Somebody get Frank Wren on the horn.

[nsacpi]

Swanson, sure. Albies, maybe a little. Beyond that, I'm actually very pleased with the way our guys have progressed this year.

Newcomb - steady or slightly up
Sims - up
Fried - maybe down a little, but his ST still has me up on him
Allard - way up
Soroka - way up
Acuna - way up
Weigel - steady or slightly up
Gohara - up
Touki - up
Demeritte - up
Riley - steady/slightly up
Jackson - up
Anderson - up
Wentz - up
Pache - up
Cruz - down
Sanchez - up
Wilson - up
Herbert - steady or slightly down
Cumberland - up
Davidson - down
Peterson - just started
Muller - hasn't started yet
Maitan/int'l signing - haven't started yet

I don't see many disappointing starts to key players.

The disappointments look more substantial when you add the guys acquired during the rebuild who have hit the majors (and in some cases used up their prospect status). Wisler, Blair, Folty, Jace Peterson. Newcomb was ranked 24 on BA's 2016 list and dropped to 78 on their 2017 list. I don't think he'll be up on the mid-season list. Bethancourt (though not acquired during the rebuild) is another promising young player who dropped by the wayside. Others are a distant memory because they are no longer in the system (eg. Jenkins and Banuelos). And then there is Hector Olivera, who was a very highly ranked prospect when we acquired him. Your list also leaves off Minter, who unfortunately has hardly pitched this year.

[smootness]

The disappointments look more substantial when you add the guys acquired during the rebuild who have hit the majors (and in some cases used up their prospect status). Wisler, Blair, Folty, Jace Peterson. Newcomb was ranked 24 on BA's 2016 list and dropped to 78 on their 2017 list. I don't think he'll be up on the mid-season list. Bethancourt (though not acquired during the rebuild) is another promising young player who dropped by the wayside.

I know Newcomb has fallen in prospect rankings, but two things on that:

1) I'm only talking about this year.
2) I can't really explain why he's fallen so far. I can see him falling some since he hasn't brought his BB down, but he's been moving up levels and keeping his performance consistent, and his K rate has spiked back up so far this year in AAA. The BB rate at 24 is obviously a concern, but they have guys with bad BB rates all over the top 100. His performance has basically remained steady since we acquired him while he's moved up levels, and my opinion of him hasn't really changed.

I was really just focusing on the prospect side. I realize you didn't make that distinction, but I still consider this to be an iceberg with a huge majority of the key players still in the minors. I had hopes for guys like Wisler and Blair but never really saw them as key cogs in us becoming a contender.

[Preacher]

Swanson has me concerned, not writing him off, but he's 175 ABs into this season hitting .189/.276/.291 with 50 Ks, 1 SB and a bushel of errors. The good news is everyone has raved about the type of kid he is and his makeup, so he at least seems mentally equipped to handle a prolonged slump, but yea -- how he's performed is worrisome.

This may sound like denial, but I'm not really worried about Albies, he's too young and his track record is too good.

I made a post in another thread looking at our pre-season top-30 prospects, many have exceeded expectations or kept their heads above water. Really overall the minors have done very well.

[IslandBrave]

Albies is still the youngest player in AAA and has never even faced a pitcher his age. People flipping over his "struggles" are crazy. He's a college sophomore in AAA and is hitting .270.

[thewupk]

I'd consider our top 2 prospects (both top 10 in all of baseball) flopping to start the year a big deal. Fried is off to a disappointing start as well. Newcomb is still walking a ton of people and he's going to need to fix hat to be an effective pitcher at the big league level. While their stock was down compared to this point last year there was hope Blair or Wisler could turn things around and provide a solution to the back end of our rotation which we definitely need help with.

[TheBravos]

Many of the big original trade pieces have been disappointing. Many of the players we have drafted are looking great. Those players are a few years away, so the gap you see is from the big trade guys failing (for the most part), that were close to MLB ready.

Granted, the jury is still out on a few like Newk (and he looks promising), but Blair, Wisler, etc...really look like stinkers. Throw in loosing guys like Wood for HO and it hurts even more.

I'll never understand trading young guys like Simmons and Wood in a rebuild. It just makes zero sense. "Maybe" Kimbrel could make sense because why would we need an elite closer, but not the other two.

Luckily, we have drafted well and also done well on smaller trades. The failure of the oldest guys though, really set us back AT LEAST a year and probably two years.

OZ and Depete were hurt ...they'll be back to form by the end of the year no doubt.



Help is coming though!!

[thewupk]

Albies is still the youngest player in AAA and has never even faced a pitcher his age. People flipping over his "struggles" are crazy. He's a college sophomore in AAA and is hitting .270.

I don't think anyone is flipping out. But his walks going down and his strikeouts going up are concerning. For a player with limited power he's going to have to put the ball in play to be a successful hitter.

[cajunrevenge]

I think the only way the rebuild would be in trouble is if the team decides to change course and bring in a new front office. I remember Dayton Moore was close to being fired and most people thought the Royals should sell at the trade deadline the year they finally broke through.

[smootness]

I'd consider our top 2 prospects (both top 10 in all of baseball) flopping to start the year a big deal. Fried is off to a disappointing start as well. Newcomb is still walking a ton of people and he's going to need to fix hat to be an effective pitcher at the big league level. While their stock was down compared to this point last year there was hope Blair or Wisler could turn things around and provide a solution to the back end of our rotation which we definitely need help with.

One is 'flopping' in the majors. The other is 'flopping' at 20 in AAA. In other words, this stuff happens. It's not some extremely abnormal thing or anything to be overly concerned about at this point.

And yes, you pointed out some of the guys who have not seen their stock improve. Just about everybody else's has.

[smootness]

I don't think anyone is flipping out. But his walks going down and his strikeouts going up are concerning. For a player with limited power he's going to have to put the ball in play to be a successful hitter.

...and he's a college sophomore in AAA. It's really not concerning, as pretty much any prospect guy has said when asked. His K rate is normalizing, as is his BB rate, and his numbers across the board are improving.

[TheBravos]

...and he's a college sophomore in AAA. It's really not concerning, as pretty much any prospect guy has said when asked. His K rate is normalizing, as is his BB rate, and his numbers across the board are improving.

Also, he's coming off an elbow fracture?? That's not a injury you just come back at full speed from. I didn't expect him to back to his old self until late in the year at the earliest. Why is no one taking this into consideration ??? He isn't doing horrible either, just average.