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Thread: 6/14 JT vs Harper

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Dickey has a team option. It's not likely to be picked up next year. My guess is that the Braves will probably roll into next season with Teheran and Folty. I'm thinking maybe two prospect slots and another veteran on short term deal in the fifth slot.
    Let's hope they shop for a better veteran option in 2018.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    Let's hope they shop for a better veteran option in 2018.
    Bartolo? Lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Dickey has a team option. It's not likely to be picked up next year. My guess is that the Braves will probably roll into next season with Teheran and Folty. I'm thinking maybe two prospect slots and another veteran on short term deal in the fifth slot.

    Looking at a list of FA pitchers, it's tough to find a decent guy to sign for that 5th spot. My biggest desire there is someone who can just consistently throw 170+ plus innings, even if the innings aren't good. Wade Miley would be an option, but he has a team option for $12MM. Even if it's not picked up, he may want more than 1 year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    Let's hope they shop for a better veteran option in 2018.
    It will be tough to get a better option that's willing to take a 1-year deal, which is all I think the org will want to give.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    It will be tough to get a better option that's willing to take a 1-year deal, which is all I think the org will want to give.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Looking at a list of FA pitchers, it's tough to find a decent guy to sign for that 5th spot. My biggest desire there is someone who can just consistently throw 170+ plus innings, even if the innings aren't good. Wade Miley would be an option, but he has a team option for $12MM. Even if it's not picked up, he may want more than 1 year.
    Could be another small trade too - like what they did for Jaime Garcia or Brandon Phillips. Someone with an extra starter on expiring deal taking back a far away prospect or even some like Wisler or Blair with more control?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Could be another small trade too - like what they did for Jaime Garcia or Brandon Phillips. Someone with an extra starter on expiring deal taking back a far away prospect or even some like Wisler or Blair with more control?
    I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Blair or Wisler or both packaged up in a smaller deal. Both are getting passed by in the organization, but another pitching needy team may think they can salvage something. Wouldn't be for much.

    If Garcia and Phillips keep playing well, they'll both be gone, almost guaranteed, just no need for them here and teams will be interested. Doesn't really even matter what the return is.

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    The time to trade Teheran was 2 years ago during the rebuild when his value was high and the Braves had no hope of winning in the foreseeable future.

    Now that the rebuild is over and his value is much lower it's time to keep him.

    Anyone that "knows baseball" knows this!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Could be another small trade too - like what they did for Jaime Garcia or Brandon Phillips. Someone with an extra starter on expiring deal taking back a far away prospect or even some like Wisler or Blair with more control?
    That's true. I'm sure there's a way to look at who's got 1 year left on their deal.

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    A tidbit on what we can realistically expect for Garcia:

    Jackson
    4:39 Can Jaime Garcia to the Cubs for Mark Zagunis and Victor Caratini work?

    Jason Martinez
    4:40 Definitely not both. Maybe one, but it really depends on the state of the Cubs' SP in a month and Jaime Garcia would need to be on a roll. Probably not even one of them, though.

    Those are the #9 and #14 prospects in the Cubs system, and would slot in the 15-25 range in the Braves system. And one of them is probably too steep for Garcia.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 06-15-2017 at 11:33 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    A tidbit on what we can realistically expect for Garcia:

    Jackson
    4:39 Can Jaime Garcia to the Cubs for Mark Zagunis and Victor Caratini work?

    Jason Martinez
    4:40 Definitely not both. Maybe one, but it really depends on the state of the Cubs' SP in a month and Jaime Garcia would need to be on a roll. Probably not even one of them, though.

    Those are the #9 and #14 prospects in the Cubs system, and would slot in the 15-25 range in the Braves system.
    Not sure who this is, but he really can't say that, every year teams overpay at the deadline. Value doesn't equal value when teams sense a post-season run.

    And that's not me saying the Braves are going to get a great return here, but I think the piece(s) coming back would be relatively strong.

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    I think Caratini is an AL player. From what I've read he's not going to stick at C and doesn't really have a position. Can definitely hit, however.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Preacher View Post
    Not sure who this is, but he really can't say that, every year teams overpay at the deadline. Value doesn't equal value when teams sense a post-season run.

    And that's not me saying the Braves are going to get a great return here, but I think the piece(s) coming back would be relatively strong.
    He's one of the main writersd at MLBTR. I would guess those guys have a good feel for trade values.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    He's one of the main writersd at MLBTR. I would guess those guys have a good feel for trade values.
    I like MLBTR, no doubt he's got a good feel, but its hard to line up value a month before the deadline. It doesn't take much to go over to BA's trade history articles and see how often teams will overpay at the deadline. He may be right, I tend to think the Braves will walk away from Garcia with a nice young piece that has some real upside.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Preacher View Post
    I like MLBTR, no doubt he's got a good feel, but its hard to line up value a month before the deadline. It doesn't take much to go over to BA's trade history articles and see how often teams will overpay at the deadline. He may be right, I tend to think the Braves will walk away from Garcia with a nice young piece that has some real upside.
    Cubs are a sabre-friendly organization. Not saying they wouldn't inquire about Garcia but they would likely expect him to pitch closer to his 4+ FIP the res of the year instead of the 3.1 ERA he currently has.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Cubs are a sabre-friendly organization. Not saying they wouldn't inquire about Garcia but they would likely expect him to pitch closer to his 4+ FIP the res of the year instead of the 3.1 ERA he currently has.
    Their staff is a mess right now. Arrieta and Lackey both look like they've regressed heavily, with Lackey probably being finished. I think they could use Jaime. But you're not gonna get a ton (obviously). Rental + health concerns.

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    Garcia is not a guy any contender is going to acquire with plans to slot him into a postseason rotation. So they are buying him for 2 months of regular season production to get them in the playoffs, where he will then be a long man out of the BP.

    We are talking about a guy that will be paid $4M for those 2 months, and can maybe provide ~1 win over that time. That's a surplus value of ~$5M. That's not even half the value of a Top 200 prospect, much less anything resembling a Top 100 prospect.

    A back-end SP simply isn't that valuable to playoff contenders. They will be lucky to get half the value they gave up for him...which wasn't much.

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    Yeah, but just think we still have Colon and Dickey...they will bring a HAUL!! #jokingtheycouldntbringbackapackofchewinggum

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Garcia is not a guy any contender is going to acquire with plans to slot him into a postseason rotation. So they are buying him for 2 months of regular season production to get them in the playoffs, where he will then be a long man out of the BP.

    We are talking about a guy that will be paid $4M for those 2 months, and can maybe provide ~1 win over that time. That's a surplus value of ~$5M. That's not even half the value of a Top 200 prospect, much less anything resembling a Top 100 prospect.

    A back-end SP simply isn't that valuable to playoff contenders. They will be lucky to get half the value they gave up for him...which wasn't much.
    I disagree that there is not a team that wouldn't consider starting him in a playoff series. Experienced starter with playoff experience having a decent year. Third or fourth starter? Sure.

    The Braves got an actual prospect for Lucas Harrell. Let's not dismiss the chances before it happens.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Garcia is not a guy any contender is going to acquire with plans to slot him into a postseason rotation. So they are buying him for 2 months of regular season production to get them in the playoffs, where he will then be a long man out of the BP.

    We are talking about a guy that will be paid $4M for those 2 months, and can maybe provide ~1 win over that time. That's a surplus value of ~$5M. That's not even half the value of a Top 200 prospect, much less anything resembling a Top 100 prospect.

    A back-end SP simply isn't that valuable to playoff contenders. They will be lucky to get half the value they gave up for him...which wasn't much.
    Not faulting this logic at all, with the HUGE caveat that it really is all based on what's on the market at the time. After all the price for relievers was crazy at the deadline in years passed and I doubt the return (war) equaled what was given up...
    Ivermectin Man

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