THURSDAY MINORS THREAD 6/15 ... Soroka continues scoreless streak

[Enscheff]

So your fine with wasting innings on an arm that is likely to explode in the minor league when the pitcher is proving he is close to being ready. This binary thought process of promoting during a certain time because of service time is short sighted. Get pitchers up when they are fresh. Let another team worry about when they get injurred.

The arm is going to blow up no matter what. When it blows up, the guy is shelved for a year. You JUST admitted the arm has a good chance to blow up and lose a year, so wouldn't you rather have that year come out of 6.8 years of control rather than 6 years of control?

Seriously, resource management is not overly complicated. So far, the only promotion they've botched is Swanson. Let's hope he remains the only one.

[Enscheff]

I think its a smaller thing in the context of baseball.

I understand what you are saying, but there is such a thing as being too clever.

I would not have promoted Swanson last season, but my reason would have been that he was scuffling in AA, not that he should be held down another year (why not two?) to maximize future returns.

I would not start Soroka in the majors because he'll be 20 with little experience above AA. And I'd hold him down as long as it seemed feasible. But when you starting thinking about -- well will the Braves really contend in 2018, maybe it would be better to hold him until June 2019 you start losing me.

At the end of the day, I am also not sure that I believe that utility of these decisions ultimately amounts to a ton. Between players that don't pan out, players that sign extensions, players that excel and hit arbitration, players that are traded, injured, etc., these things are not likely to be that important. Do the little things well, sure, but don't run your organization obsessing over it. At the end of the day, the purpose of the organization is to sell tickets to fans. I see that sentiment from some on here and disagree with it sometimes, but ultimately they are correct. That's the point. When a team like the Braves are rebuilding like they are, I think its better to pull the bandaid and embrace it. But when you step out of that phase (and I think next year is probably the target) you should start operating like a baseball club again.

When I say next year is the target (maybe it should be 2019), I just mean a change in focus from prioritizing prospects to prioritizing the produce at the MLB level. I could certainly see the argument for one more year of stopgaps and sell offs at the deadline though.

The fact you even posited this question shows you have no idea what you are talking about.

The reason "not two" is because the Braves would have controlled him through his 20s by waiting until a month into this season. Starting Swanson's clock early to contribute to a losing team at the end of a losing season was pure stupidity. Literally nobody other than John Hart and a select group of posi-Barves think it was a good idea.

[Southcack77]

The fact you even posited this question shows you have no idea what you are talking about.

The reason "not two" is because the Braves would have controlled him through his 20s by waiting until a month into this season. Starting Swanson's clock early to contribute to a losing team at the end of a losing season was pure stupidity. Literally nobody other than John Hart and a select group of posi-Barves think it was a good idea.

Literally no one in my post was arguing that Swanson should have been called up when he was.

[mfree80]

I think its a smaller thing in the context of baseball.

I understand what you are saying, but there is such a thing as being too clever.

I would not have promoted Swanson last season, but my reason would have been that he was scuffling in AA, not that he should be held down another year (why not two?) to maximize future returns.

I would not start Soroka in the majors because he'll be 20 with little experience above AA. And I'd hold him down as long as it seemed feasible. But when you starting thinking about -- well will the Braves really contend in 2018, maybe it would be better to hold him until June 2019 you start losing me.

At the end of the day, I am also not sure that I believe that utility of these decisions ultimately amounts to a ton. Between players that don't pan out, players that sign extensions, players that excel and hit arbitration, players that are traded, injured, etc., these things are not likely to be that important. Do the little things well, sure, but don't run your organization obsessing over it. At the end of the day, the purpose of the organization is to sell tickets to fans. I see that sentiment from some on here and disagree with it sometimes, but ultimately they are correct. That's the point. When a team like the Braves are rebuilding like they are, I think its better to pull the bandaid and embrace it. But when you step out of that phase (and I think next year is probably the target) you should start operating like a baseball club again.

When I say next year is the target (maybe it should be 2019), I just mean a change in focus from prioritizing prospects to prioritizing the produce at the MLB level. I could certainly see the argument for one more year of stopgaps and sell offs at the deadline though.

I think there is a fine line between being guided by the stats and being ruled by them. I really like to see the Braves being guided by the numbers, but get a little nervous when folks suggest being ruled by them.

Sometimes you make exceptions for reasons that we here in the internet world may not be aware of. I suspect that players and agents know which teams consistently play games with service time. I won't try to predict how that plays out in contract negotiation, but I'll bet it is not ignored.

[clvclv]

I think there is a fine line between being guided by the stats and being ruled by them. I really like to see the Braves being guided by the numbers, but get a little nervous when folks suggest being ruled by them.

Sometimes you make exceptions for reasons that we here in the internet world may not be aware of. I suspect that players and agents know which teams consistently play games with service time. I won't try to predict how that plays out in contract negotiation, but I'll bet it is not ignored.

Going to cost the Cubs a TON of cash for playing that game with Bryant and Borass.

[Enscheff]

Going to cost the Cubs a TON of cash for playing that game with Bryant and Borass.

Yeah, because Kris Bryant represented by Scott Boras wasn't going to cost huge dollars anyways.

What a stupid comment.

[auyushu]

Yeah, because Kris Bryant represented by Scott Boras wasn't going to cost huge dollars anyways.

What a stupid comment.

Seriously, when has Boras ever not had his client sign for the highest offer, ever? Bringing up Furcal early sure worked out for us back when Boras was his agent and we wanted to extend him right?



Outside of certain players such as Huddy who really like the area and sign for cheap, players are going to take the most money they can get on a winning team, that's why paying attention to service time is so important.

[auyushu]

If he is that good he will also be extended for however long they want to keep him.

I love how people act like we are the Dodgers and can sign people for whatever we want with no concerns. If he's that good as you say he's going to be worth 30+ mil a year, and no, we won't be able to sign Soroka for however long we can keep him. The Braves are a mid to low payroll team, we can only afford to sign 2-3 or our players to high dollar long term deals (and that's not including 30+ deals), ignoring service time is just plain dumb for a team with such tight payroll constraints.

[bravesfanMatt]

I love how people act like we are the Dodgers and can sign people for whatever we want with no concerns. If he's that good as you say he's going to be worth 30+ mil a year, and no, we won't be able to sign Soroka for however long we can keep him. The Braves are a mid to low payroll team, we can only afford to sign 2-3 or our players to high dollar long term deals (and that's not including 30+ deals), ignoring service time is just plain dumb for a team with such tight payroll constraints.

you can buy out arb years ++ for 90% of prospect after they arrive. Very few ever come up and are superstars that want to wait until FA.. They take the hometown deal that guarantees them MILLIONS.. look at Mad bum and Sale for example. Even FF is below market contract. If we want to sign Swanson or Soroka for cheap, then I am 90% sure we can. (cheap is a relative term I know)

Yes Soroka might be worth 30 million at some point.. but if the team waits to sign him when he becomes that, then they failed. Inking younger guys to team friendly deals comes with it own risks of course. That is why you get them cheaper though.

[Southcack77]

you can buy out arb years ++ for 90% of prospect after they arrive. Very few ever come up and are superstars that want to wait until FA.. They take the hometown deal that guarantees them MILLIONS.. look at Mad bum and Sale for example. Even FF is below market contract. If we want to sign Swanson or Soroka for cheap, then I am 90% sure we can. (cheap is a relative term I know)

Yes Soroka might be worth 30 million at some point.. but if the team waits to sign him when he becomes that, then they failed. Inking younger guys to team friendly deals comes with it own risks of course. That is why you get them cheaper though.

I'd add that if he's a 30m dollar player that the braves can't sign - he's gone anyway.

You are taking about one season at max arbitration value that you may be saving.

That could be valuable, it could not be valuable, but it's not going to determine the fate of the franchise.

[Enscheff]

I'd add that if he's a 30m dollar player that the braves can't sign - he's gone anyway.

You are taking about one season at max arbitration value that you may be saving.

That could be valuable, it could not be valuable, but it's not going to determine the fate of the franchise.

Nope, but mess it up with 10 players over a 5-10 year period and it will certainly determine the fate of the franchise.

Lose $10M in value from the Swanson promotion. Another $10M with Soroka. Another $10M by promoting Albies needlessly. Yet another with Wright.

For a team with a $150M "pie in the sky everything is great in the new stadium" payroll, but probably closer to $120M, those $10M chunks of lost value are going to add up quickly.

[Horsehide Harry]

It's a business. Smart management runs it like a business. Good businesses don't give money away.

[auyushu]

you can buy out arb years ++ for 90% of prospect after they arrive. Very few ever come up and are superstars that want to wait until FA..

Very few my butt, the Sale and Madbum deals are the exception, not the rule. You may get an extra year or two, but for every Sale there is a Heyward, Furcal, or Francoeur (worked out for us of course) that isn't interested in signing team friendly extensions. Wasting a year of team control under the assumption you can extend them is a very foolish business practice long term.

[Heyward]

Tough to say with Soroka.

He's flat out dominating double A at 19 years old. What more do you have to do with him?

Yes him starting at 20 years old next year would be dumb for a mid-market team but with the depth the Braves have pitching, it is what it is. I'm good with it either way but i can see the case for starting him if he dominates in ST.

Folty, Julio and i guess Newcomb if he doesnt completely suck are only guaranteed spots next year.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Super impressed with how well Soroka is doing and his pitching looked sick based on TalkingChop gifs last night, but I do want to see him in AA the rest of the year. I want to see more dominance away from Trustmark since it's a major pitcher's park (read the splits in a comment there, it's pretty significant).

[auyushu]

Super impressed with how well Soroka is doing and his pitching looked sick based on TalkingChop gifs last night, but I do want to see him in AA the rest of the year. I want to see more dominance away from Trustmark since it's a major pitcher's park (read the splits in a comment there, it's pretty significant).

Those are some mighty strong splits home/away, weird that he has so much better of a k rate at home versus away. Probably SSS there I'm sure on the Ks.

[rico43]

Yeah, because Kris Bryant represented by Scott Boras wasn't going to cost huge dollars anyways.

What a stupid comment.

Your self-righteous superiority is starting to wear thin even on people who, in most part, agree with you. Tone down the put downs, why don't you? If you can't tolerate fools, put them on ignore. Name calling does not move the discussion forward.
For what it's worth, your on-point rebuttals of some of the stuff here is valuable.

[Russ2dollas]

Tough to say with Soroka.

He's flat out dominating double A at 19 years old. What more do you have to do with him?

Yes him starting at 20 years old next year would be dumb for a mid-market team but with the depth the Braves have pitching, it is what it is. I'm good with it either way but i can see the case for starting him if he dominates in ST.

Folty, Julio and i guess Newcomb if he doesnt completely suck are only guaranteed spots next year.

He skipped high a

No way he should skip aaa. Maybe he gets up next year with injury or roster expansion

Weigel Newcombe and Simms need the first shot imo. Or if the decide sims in a bp arm or not good enough a one year vet might be worth it. Dickey or medlen

Let him build up innings and see aaa after a full year in aa

[Heyward]

He skipped high a

No way he should skip aaa. Maybe he gets up next year with injury or roster expansion

Weigel Newcombe and Simms need the first shot imo. Or if the decide sims in a bp arm or not good enough a one year vet might be worth it. Dickey or medlen

Let him build up innings and see aaa after a full year in aa

Odds are he wont start right away in 18, but if he dominates in ST. It will be worth discussing.

[Russ2dollas]

Odds are he wont start right away in 18, but if he dominates in ST. It will be worth discussing.

Why?

He was young at draft. He skipped high a. So now he's basically skipped two grades. It's only been a half a season in aa.

Why skip 3 grades with no aaa? We likely are looking at an 18 rotation of Tehran folty Newcombe. Why wouldn't you give weigel a shot before soroka?