Lol keep reaching bud.Originally Posted by Southcack77
Lol keep reaching bud.
The problem is which numbers are you looking at. Julio was never as good as his ERA sometimes suggested. Most fans and most FO's know this. Julio at his best as been a 3+ WAR pitcher which is a low #2 and good #3. He has never been an ace event though he has at times been the Braves best pitcher. Some people get confused over that. He was never going to bring back elite prospects because he has never been that good.
Last trade deadline Julio would of had an surplus value of ~65 million. More than twice what he has now. They could have gotten a high grade 55 FV player. Now I think at best they could get a low end 55 grade guy but most likely a 50 FV guy that makes the back end of top 100 lists. The longer they wait the worse it will get.
The ideal time would of been after 2014 when they traded several other players. Julio was coming off a good year and had years left on his contract. But the Braves tried that half in half out rebuild and it's hurt them.
He knows Julio should have been traded. He knows the return would have been a Top 50 guy plus another Top 100 guy.
However his blind loyalty to the FO prevents him from admitting it, so he grasps at any straw he can to "prove" himself right.
It's kinda of adorable actually. It's like watching someone defend their son after they get shot for breaking into someone's house.
If you mean that he should have been traded at the very beginning along with Hayward and Upton before he had the bad 2015, then I'll go with you there. I do think it would have been better to tear it all the way down and that was my preference.
If you can put actual names on the package coming back in 2016 at the deadline, maybe I can say where I would have taken the deal or not. But I don't think at that time that trading Teheran for a generic 55 FV player was especially pressing.
Teheran's value to the Braves isn't solely what he can realize in trade. It's his ability to fill a rotation spot for less than it would cost to replace him.
It's not just math. It's roster management, it is depth charts, it is budget, it is to some degree perception. And simply saying that there was a deal out there that the Braves should have taken for more prospect depth...I just don't think that is necessarily true. I'm content with the Braves having held on to him at the deadline even though I absolutely think they should have gone out and tried to find a great deal for him. I think they did that. I think if they had gotten an offer back that they liked they would have taken it. And I don't think the fact they didn't get one necessarily means that they had any sort of mistaken assumption about his value.
I'm sorry that he has pitched worse this year than he did last year. Just like I'm sorry that he was worse in 2015 than he was in 2014. But at the end of the day he's a major league rotation guy who should be pitching closer to the back of a rotation than the front.
I think the Braves got a fair offer for him. I also think they were holding out for a Miller type offer that they couldn't refuse. I agree that to the Braves Julio was more valuable to them then what his fair market value in a trade would be. To me that goes with trying to contend sooner than what should realistically expected. Some of that may be pressure on the John's above him I don't know.
If Hahn had followed Coppy's rebuild process, he would have done 1 of 2 things with Q:
1. Insisted the Cubs take Shields' contract as well as Q, thus accepting a prospect package half as valuable as the one he got. He would have then spent that money on a 4 year contract for a 1-2 WAR player to help the team be "palatable" in 2018 and the rest of the rebuild.
2. Insisted on the Cubs sending back a low quality MLB piece as part of the package, again lowering the prospect return, and again trying to be "palatable" in 2018 and the rest of the rebuild.
Obviously, Hahn chose a different rebuild process. Only a fool thinks Coppy's process is better.
Last edited by Enscheff; 07-13-2017 at 02:53 PM.
We are pretty close to understanding on this one.
By 2016, I just don't think the Braves needed to be taking whatever fair offer was on the table. There just wasn't an imperative for him to be moved and I say that even thinking that the Braves true window doesn't open until Kemp's contract clears.
Probably should have traded Teheran in 2014. I'm with you there.
If Coppy followed Hahn we would have probably dealt Freddie.
Reasonable people can disagree but Coppy has said from the get go that the organization's assessment of the market is that ATL can't afford a 5+ year rebuild.
I honestly don't get the praise for Hahn. He traded a stud pitcher for a stud prospect and a lottery ticket.
Top 50 and top 100 offer for Julio I might not take now, much less then. To use Braves prospects what if the return for Julio was Gohara plus Newcombe? Two high upside guys. But both have significant risk. That's not the type of return the board was expecting for Julio last deadline.
the White Sox traded for Shields in June and then decided to sell off all their young and valuable assets in July.
Kind of like Preller depleted his farm system and completely burned the major league club to the ground a few months later.
People have different strengths.
The fact we were in on Quintana tells me Julio is not in the least available...no matter the offer.
Which of these 2 statements have I said?
1. Hahn is doing an excellent job in the early stages of this rebuild.
2. Hahn has done every aspect of being a GM perfectly.
Which one have I said? Does your reading comprehension allow you to answer this question accurately?
I honestly don't think we should move Neck.
I'd trade him in heart beat if someone took the entire deal. Or if I could get a decent piece. But I'm not moving him for a 40 FV guy and saving a little money.
He doesn't block Acuna. He only makes 11 for one more year.
You could start Neck to keep Acuna down for some period of time or you could start Acuna from the jump. Keep Neck around to occasionally spell Acuna and Kemp. Probably a decent pinch hitter when you need a base hit with men on late. Could be a defensive sub for Kemp.
Typically you'd want your starter to be making the millions and your back up making 500K. But I don't see why it couldn't be the other way for a year. The Braves will want vets on the team. Nick is a solid player and teammate. I'd rather keep him than have them fill that bench role with another Bonifacio type.
Apparently your reading comprehension consistently allows you to respond to arguments that were never made.
Gray has seemed a better target for us to me than Quintana. I think we might be able to get him for Anderson. Or Wentz plus Touki. We'd be paying something close to the contender's premium in both cases.
Last edited by nsacpi; 07-13-2017 at 03:25 PM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
mlb trade rumor chat said probably two top 100 with neither guy being a headliner.
I think it's only 1.5 years of control so I don't see how he fits the window. But If I could get him for Touki, Riley, Mueller I'd do it and maybe deal him for more later or see if he'll do an extension. I don't think I'd give up Anderson for 1.5 years of Gray with his injury history.
2.5 years of control
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
The Braves would be better off playing out this season, signing a 2-3 WAR guy at 3B like Frazier, and rocking this lineup by the end of April:
Inciarte
Freeman
Frazier
Markakis
Kemp
Flowers
Swanson
Pitcher
Albies
Folty
Teheran
Newk
Dickey
Young Guy
and going for 80-85 wins. If they are in contention at the deadline, look to acquire a TOR like Archer or whoever will inevitably be available. Then push for a playoff slot.
They really need to end this foolish notion of accelerating the rebuild.
I go back and forth on whether we should prioritize picking up a starting pitcher or third baseman. If we go third I'd rather go with a trade (Solarte or Prado) than free agent (Frazier, Moose) where length of contract is likely to be an issue. We could afford to do both with a combination of Solarte and Gray.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Agreed...it's a year too early.
I'd definitely prefer to wait on assuming the risk of a SP until they know FOR SURE they are contenders.
As far as the exact guy to target for 3B...I could be convinced of almost anyone if the price is right.
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