I'd sure love to take the $10MM the Braves squandered on Colon (and, to a lesser extent, the $7.5MM misspent on Dickey) and offer it up as salary relief in a prospect light deal with Detroit for Verlander.Originally Posted by UNCBlue012
I'd sure love to take the $10MM the Braves squandered on Colon (and, to a lesser extent, the $7.5MM misspent on Dickey) and offer it up as salary relief in a prospect light deal with Detroit for Verlander.
That Kemp deal kills me.
That's a lot of money on our book for 3 years
Assuming Gray produces 1 win for the rest of the year at a cost of $1M and change, times the 2x contender's premium, he likely has almost $20M in surplus value this year. He is controlled via arb for 2 more seasons that will cost about $15M. If he produces 6 WAR over those 2 seasons, that's another $45M in surplus value.
The Astros have the following valuable prospects according to BA's midseason list (with estimated surplus value):
8. Bregman ($71.6M)
29. Martes ($33.9M)
32. Musgrove ($32.6M)
35. Tucker ($41.8M)
47 Paulino ($25.0M)
94 Fisher ($20.2M)
We can piece those values together to get $65M. We know Bregman is untouchable, and Tucker is likely off limits (they would have Q or Sale if they were willing to trade him). Musgrove and Martes are already in the MLB rotation, so maybe they are off limits too?. A package of Paulino plus Fisher is likely not enough to get Gray. Maybe Musgrove/Martes plus Fisher plus 2 other notable parts? Maybe include Whitley as a way to not include Musgrove/Martes?
I'm guessing one of Martes/Musgrove plus Fisher plus 2 other parts for Gray.
Last edited by Enscheff; 07-20-2017 at 11:35 AM.
I'm not a huge fan of doing it, but what do you think a package of Braves prospects for Gray look like?
10. Acuna ($69.7M)
23. Allard ($36.7M)
25. Albies ($53.7M)
33. Soroka ($32.1M)
41. Wright ($28.2M)
42 Newk ($27.7M)
55. Anderson ($20.8M)
72. Maitan ($21.9M)
76. Gohara ($16.1M)
Plus position players just outside to Top 100 like Pache and Waters that are probably worth ~$20M each (though I may be letting my homerism overvalue Waters).
Assuming Wright, Acuna and Maitan are off limits (Albies appears to be available for some reason), the package to get Gray NOW would either be Albies plus 2-3 filler guys, or heavy on pitching...something like Allard/Soroka plus Gohara plus 2 other parts.
If the Braves try to get Gray in the offseason, his value drops significantly from $65M to $45M. Making a deal at that time makes a lot more sense for the Braves.
I wouldn't be opposed to consolidating 2-3 pitching prospects into a solid TOR SP this offseason. The ones I wouldn't want to trade would be Wright and Soroka...the rest can be traded for their surplus value. Just don't trade any position players.
Last edited by Enscheff; 07-20-2017 at 12:20 PM.
I agree that Tucker is likely untouchable, but do we know he is simply because they don't have Quintana or Sale? Moncada and Jimenez are both better prospects.
Everything we heard during all the trade talks was that a Tucker and Martes package wasn't happening, ever.
I think folks took that to mean Tucker was untouchable.
Not sure I'd buy now. Is rather wait till the off-season and see if we can pry Archer away from TB. Just my opinion but Archer is better then Gray. thoughts?
Agreed 100%. And I'd raise you one step further...
I would wait until the 2018 trade deadline, make sure the Braves are contenders, and THEN trade for a guy like Archer. Or a rental of Machado/Donaldson at 3B.
Make sure the Braves are actually in contention before making serious acquisitions.
Yeah, I think that's probably right. Was just mentioning that the packages they ultimately got included better prospects than Tucker and are arguably as good as a Tucker/Martes package.
You do have to weigh, though, that at the deadline you're paying more. Will you ultimately pay more at the 2018 deadline than you would have in the offseason? Tough to say, but it's a risk.
Not sure about the deadline would rather have Archer for the whole year.
Archer
Teheran
Folty
Dickey
Newcomb/Sims
I think RA at 8 mil is a safer bet then buying a #4 starter see Bartolo. Question is can we get Archer without including Folty.
The Braves would be paying a 2x premium for the last 2 months of 2018 and the playoffs, but they KNOW they are contenders at that point. They are also more sure whichever pitcher they acquire will be healthy for those 2 months.
That's the whole reason the contender's premium exists.
Pitchers are the most "win now" assets in the game because they are so likely to get hurt. So when you acquire one, you better be able to won NOW with him. The bulk of their value is realized very early in the term of team control.
Yeah, that's also a whole year the Braves are on the hook if he gets hurt. And a whole year the Braves can under perform and not even be contenders.
There's a reason the contender's premium exists...
"High" is relative. We aren't getting a Quintana return for him. However, if we sell Garcia, better do it in the next 2 weeks or the return will be less than if we attempted to sell at another time. If we wait, we'll get a bag of balls instead of a $500 pitching machine.
Out of those pitchers you listed, skills wise I'm not sure who I'd take over Garcia. Estrada and Liriano have been wrecks. If Cahill would stay healthy, I'd take him over Garcia. Most of the pitchers on that list are junkerballers.
Astros farm system is deep. Guys not on the BA top 100 list like Teoscar Hernandez, Ramon Laureano, Yordan Alvarez, Daz Cameron, Garret Stubbs, Jason Martin. Alvarez and Laureano will probably be on the pre-season to be honest.
Sure, I get that. But if you feel pretty confident about being a contender and can get him for cheaper in the offseason than you will 4 months later, it might prove worth it. Again, it's a risk, but one that could pay off.
I generally hate buying at the deadline. I think it usually works out worse for the team buying.
The only reason to buy at the deadline for a non-contending team is because that player is who you want and if you don't act, he goes to another team.
For example, if Coppy had a boner for Quintana, he would have had to get him NOW or else he loses his chance to get him for 3 years
50PoundHead (07-20-2017)
There's no Quintana return for anyone on that list, so it's all about who thinks they need a 5th starter to go the rest of the way during the regular season. It will be strictly cost/benefit on the part of the seller. My guess is those who are interested in obtaining a starter have contacted the teams of the guys who are listed. This is where you have to trust your scouting staff to know that you aren't asking too much when you try to peddle one of these guys. Garcia could net one decent guy or two "meh" guys. Seeing we gave up three "mehs," I can only hope we don't lose on the "meh" scale.
jpx7 (07-20-2017)
I think the Yanks wanted Frazier, but they also knew that the Red Sox wanted him. He's an upgrade for them and it keeps him off third base for the Red Sox. But this is case in point of what you're saying.
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