Did you mean to say "my"? Do you have access to a source of statcast data?Originally Posted by thewupk
Did you mean to say "my"? Do you have access to a source of statcast data?
I do NOT want to trade him now.
Other teams are wise to try to buy low on Teheran right now, and the Braves would be foolish to sell low on him.
The time to trade him was 1-2 years ago, not now that the Braves are less than a year away from fielding an 80-85 win team. The Braves completely wasted 2-3 years of peak value to have him be a part of the team we are expecting to see in 2018...they took the risk and paid that heavy price, so now they need to realize that reward.
Teheran still has ~$40M in surplus value with the ability to cut him loose a year early. If you assume these first couple months are a blip, which any contender looking to acquire him surely must be doing, then he needs to be priced accordingly.
jpx7 (07-06-2017)
I would move him as part of a tandem or multi-player package IF it helped me get who I wanted, even at the risk of giving up some surplus value.
The surplus value assumes he doesn't continue to trend down. I guess that's possible. But, it's equally possible that he craters at some point and has negative value.
From the latest MLBTR chat:
BrewerFan
4:57 Which of the Brewer's stud prospects are they most likely to give up for pitching and who is a reasonable get for them?
Jason Martinez
4:58 I don't think they go all out for a frontline guy this year. I can see them trading Ryan Cordell for a back-of-rotation guy.
Cordell is a RHed hitter slashing .284/.349/.506 (.855 OPS) in AAA. He has played 10+ games this year in CF, LF, RF, and 3B.
If the Braves could somehow flip Garcia for Cordell it would be a huge win. Cordell could be exactly the 4th OFer this roster needs.
jpx7 (07-06-2017)
I wonder if they would do a Clark, Phillips & Lara for Teheran and Johnson. They have a number of OF rated higher and Lara is more of a long term lottery pick.
That may look like selling low on Teheran but I think you get a starter at least of one of Clark and Phillips and maybe more. Lara is a long range type of guy who is boom or bust.
Add the Royals to list of possibly matches. Heyman says they are likely buyers in search of starter on expiring deal and bullpen help.
https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/roy...k-like-buyers/
Heyman also mentions in other columns that Braves have fielded interest on Teheran from Houston among others. Also says Jaime Garcia has drawn interest.
Nothing earth shattering maybe already posted.
https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/ins...ch-value-sell/
I think it just depends on what someone offers for Teheran. His value is at a low point, but if the Astros are dumb and offer Tucker (which would clearly never actually happen), you take it. If they offer Fisher, I don't think you do, unless they can throw more on top of that.
The Braves completely wasted 2-3 years of Teheran's peak value on losing teams, and now might sell low on him?
I can' think of a single more wasteful use of resources. If the Braves trade him now it proves without a shadow of a doubt they have no idea how to maximize the value of assets.
Hopefully the smarter FOs in the game don't take advantage of the stone aged Braves.
17 minutes. not bad, but you can do better.
No question they made a mistake by not trading him. However, they might compound the mistake by not trading him now, even at a lower return that what they could have gotten back.
The supposition is that trading him now would be trading him at a low point. However, that assumes to a certain extent that he will get better or at least will get no worse. If he continues to decline then a year from now we may be looking back to today and saying "they should have moved him when they had the chance."
If the return is "good enough," and I think we are past the point of "must win the trade," then I think a smart FO would pull the trigger.
The obvious problem is that he's lost another tick off the FA, which is now averaging 90.9. It has steadily declined from 93.7 back in 2011, and the Braves missed the boat on seeing that. His FA is, quite simply, getting hammered.
I realize saying "they already paid the price of keeping Teheran, so they can't sell him now" is ignoring the principle of sunk cost, but I have to think it's reasonable to expect him to revert back to something closer to what he was than what he has been this season.
I just wish they would have traded him during the rebuild. What a foolish waste of a very valuable asset.
Accepting 50% of Teheran's 2014-2016 value is going to be a tough pill to swallow, and will be a tough sell to the fans.
The question becomes: what return constitutes "good enough"?
My assumption is Teheran has a surplus value in the $30M-$40M range and is worth a Top 50 prospect, even now. I don't want to see the Braves go for quantity over quality, ever, so I want a legit Top 50 guy...not a Top 100 guy plus some filler.
So the Astros have been mentioned as interested. This would be an excellent buy-low opportunity for them, and is the type of move I expect from such a smart FO.
Kyle Tucker is not in play. Derek Fisher (who may be better than I give him credit for)? One of their non-Martes RHPs?
Yuck. Any deal centered around that for Teheran would be infuriating.
So, besides the usual hot air about "surplus value," at least a couple of posters know exactly what other teams were offering and that those potential deals would've improved the club. Mmm hmm...
You can't have it both ways. You can't say that no good offers were on the table because he wasn't good enough to draw those offers then turn around and demand they not trade him because of how good he is.
I think there were always "good" offers on the table for him. I don't think there were ever Shelby Miller type offers for him. But, guess what? The Miller deal was an outlier and would be recognized as such by a good FO. What were the offers? Who knows. Sometimes the offers are generated by the fact that a FO, quietly or not, makes it know that they would be willing to deal a player. Coppy made it known he didn't plan to trade him under ANY circumstances and, while everyone knows that as GM speak, it painted him into a corner of having to obviously "win a trade" OR keep him. For one team to win a trade it means the other team has to lose that trade. We weren't the only ones to see what happened to Dave Stewart after he so obviously lost a trade to the Braves...
I'm hopeful that the Braves will be able to couple him with another player of value (even if limited) and get a good return. Even if they have to take players who are outside the Top 50 now but will be in the top 50 next year, as long as they are getting the chance at high end talent, I would be ok with it. Something like Teheran & Adams to the Yankees for Blake Rutherford (a top 50 guy but far away) or a package of Andujar, Florial and Jorge Guzman
I wish. Just a typo.
Ventura's Stolen Bases
We should trade Adams for another 1B, since 1B is our primary place of need right now.
We should have figured out Freeman could play 3B 10 years ago while we still had Casey Kotchman. Thanks Frank Wren.
This might be our best bet for a Teheran deal considering the hitters they've accumulated.
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
Sources: #Brewers are prepared to buy at Trade Deadline and have begun background work on Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray and other starters. @MLB
I see it two ways. If Julio can put a few good starts together and begins to look like the old Julio. If I'm looking to improve, Julio's stuff isn't as good a Gray, but he has produced, he has stayed healthy and he is signed longer. If I can get him somewhat cheaper (not a ton cheaper but a bit cheaper)...why would I not? Gray and Quintana have not set the world on fire either but will probably be asking for a lot.
I like the Astros also, because they have so much riches with bats, they could trade from an area of strength to make something happen. It wouldn't be that big of a deal for them to take a bit of a gamble on Julio.
I say we absolutely keep him, but then again....I think we have already seen the peak for him, and his real value lies in his contract, which is dwindling away as we speak. So, maybe now is the time if a decent offer is there.
Gammons:
The Braves have shown significant progress, and with several very promising young pitchers in Double-A and international prospects like Ronald Acuna on the way, John Coppolella would like to make a couple of moves to edge up towards the wild card in 2017, he says “what we do has to be done with a focus on 2018.”
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