Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread

[Enscheff]

Some valuation arithmetic on Verlander.

First production projections: 3 WAR in 2018 (age 36), 2 WAR each in 2019 and 2020.

Second, assume his 2020 option is guaranteed. I think this has to be done to get him to waive his no trade rights.

Third, assume the Tigers pony up 10M in 2018 and 2019 and 5 M in 2020. This leaves the acquiring club on the hook for 18M in 2018 and 2019 and 17 M in 2020.

In the above scenario the acquiring team is paying 53M for 7 wins. Assuming a FA market price this upcoming off-season of 9M per win, this implies a surplus value of about 10M or slightly over 1 win. My guess is that we would have to send a package of prospects worth 2-3 wins to get him under the terms outlined above. This could be a single player along the lines of Toussaint or Pache or Wilson. Or a larger package of lesser players.

I would like to see us make this sort of deal. We take on a significant salary obligation (which is more than covered by the expiring contracts of Colon and Garcia) but at the same time avoid losing any of our core prospects.

It gives us a 2018 rotation of Verlander, Teheran, Folty, Dickey and Newcomb.

With Gohara, Soroka, Allard and Sims starting 2018 in AAA and Wright in AA, it positions us to start trading out of a major league pitching surplus as early as mid 2018 to fill areas of need (ie third base and maybe corner outfield and catcher).

If we cannot excute a trade along those lines, plan B for me would be to find a starting pitcher willing to sign on to a 3 year or less deal. The premium guys will get a longer deal, but guys like Cobb, Lynn or Jaime Garcia might settle for 3 years or less.

I do attach a significant amount of importance to limiting the length of any contract taken on either via trade or free agency for a veteran pitcher. Imo the risk in these contracts is usually the years not the AAV.

FG did an analysis on Verlander's value: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/getti...tin-verlander/

They didn't take into account guaranteeing his option year to convince him to waive his NT clause, and I think that is a very logical thing to consider in a Verlander trade.

They came up with the same negative value of about -$15m that I did before the deadline.

The Tigers will have to pay down about half of his contract to get Top 75-100 guy plus some filler.

I could get on board with the Braves giving up a Top 100 pitcher plus some filler for Verlander at 3/40 to 3/45.

[sturg33]

FG did an analysis on Verlander's value: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/getti...tin-verlander/

They didn't take into account guaranteeing his option year to convince him to waive his NT clause, and I think that is a very logical thing to consider in a Verlander trade.

They came up with the same negative value of about -$15m that I did before the deadline.

The Tigers will have to pay down about half of his contract to get Top 75-100 guy plus some filler.

I could get on board with the Braves giving up a Top 100 pitcher plus some filler for Verlander at 3/40 to 3/45.

I think Verlander is a good value at his current contract... I would bank on 3 WAR per season for next two years, and I think there is some mega upside there.

For $25M a year... I think worst case you're paying market value and best case you're getting a huge bargain

[Southcack77]

Eerily similar to the defense of the BJ Upton contract IIRC.

Upton was at least a really good defender. Moustakas is below average.

[jpx7]

3/5 of the entire Tigers rotation all in one quick, easy trade. Yeah, that sounds realistic!

This is exactly why there needs to be a roll eyes emoji here.

<-- That's what this is for.

[thethe]

No takers on Cole Hammels instead?

[nsacpi]

FG did an analysis on Verlander's value: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/getti...tin-verlander/

They didn't take into account guaranteeing his option year to convince him to waive his NT clause, and I think that is a very logical thing to consider in a Verlander trade.

They came up with the same negative value of about -$15m that I did before the deadline.

The Tigers will have to pay down about half of his contract to get Top 75-100 guy plus some filler.

I could get on board with the Braves giving up a Top 100 pitcher plus some filler for Verlander at 3/40 to 3/45.

Guaranteeing the option year would imply a financial obligation of 78M over the next three years. If the Tigers picked up half (39M) they would have a reasonable claim for a Top 100 prospect. What I'm advocating for is a deal in which they picked up less (25M) and settle for a prospect just outside the top 100. Someone like Touki, Pache or Wilson.

[50PoundHead]

Upton was at least a really good defender. Moustakas is below average.

I don't put that much stock in defensive analytics, but Upton has a negative dWAR for his career.

[Southcack77]

I don't put that much stock in defensive analytics, but Upton has a negative dWAR for his career.

I stand corrected. I should have looked it up.

[Oklahomahawk]

No takers on Cole Hammels instead?

I like Hammels. I wonder what it would take to get him, relative to all the other big names we throw around on a daily basis?

[Enscheff]

Apparently the Yanks were in on Bruce to the end to help in the DH role, but wanted the Mets to pay all his salary: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...&post-id=99860

Coppy need to be on the phone with Cashman trying to sell him Adams.

[mfree80]

Apparently the Yanks were in on Bruce to the end to help in the DH role, but wanted the Mets to pay all his salary: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...&post-id=99860

Coppy need to be on the phone with Cashman trying to sell him Adams.

I strongly suspect he is!

[zbhargrove]

Please trade Adams to the Yankees

[DirkPiggler]

Apparently the Yanks were in on Bruce to the end to help in the DH role, but wanted the Mets to pay all his salary: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...&post-id=99860

Coppy need to be on the phone with Cashman trying to sell him Adams.

Adams could hit a lot of lucky fly balls in that park.

[NinersSBChamps]

Apparently the Yanks were in on Bruce to the end to help in the DH role, but wanted the Mets to pay all his salary: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...&post-id=99860

Coppy need to be on the phone with Cashman trying to sell him Adams.

Except how would that work? Coppy and the gang need to shed payroll apparently and the Yankees wanted the Mets to pay the remainder for Bruce. Doubt the Yankees are going to change their tactic and would want the Braves to pay Adams.

[msstate7]

Except how would that work? Coppy and the gang need to shed payroll apparently and the Yankees wanted the Mets to pay the remainder for Bruce. Doubt the Yankees are going to change their tactic and would want the Braves to pay Adams.

Bruce = 13 million
Adams = 2.8 million

[NinersSBChamps]

Bruce = 13 million
Adams = 2.8 million

How much was Srod making that the Braves couldn't keep him on the books?

[mfree80]

How much was Srod making that the Braves couldn't keep him on the books?

They estimated saving $7.5M by trading S-Rod... but more importantly, the Braves have younger, cheaper players who can do the same thing as he can. Save money for sure, but clear away a barrier to some younger guys.

[CyYoung31]

Adams would be a monster in that park.

[Horsehide Harry]

If not traded, there is a good chance Adams will be non-tendered in the offseason...

[bravesfanMatt]

I am not so sure Adams would clear waivers. He would be more of an off season type trade imo.