Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread

[Russ2dollas]

It's probably illustrative to do the Gray valuation again. I can't remember where I posted it before, so I'll try to replicate it.

Gray is projected to produce 1.1 fWAR at a cost of $1.2M for the rest of this season. Multiplying by a 2x contender's premium, that's about $20M in surplus value just for this year.

Gray will probably earn ~$15M in his final 2 years of arbitration, and is probably projected to produce ~6 WAR over that time. That's a surplus value of about $45M over the next 2 years with limited downside risk due to the fact he can simply be non-tendered.

So how do the Braves get to $65M in surplus value to get him right now? Here's the updated values of the Braves Top 100 prospects:

Wright $32.10
Acuna $69.67
Albies $45.34
Soroka $32.56
Allard $30.72
Gohara $15.20
Anderson $17.03
Maitan $20.82

Plus Pache and Waters in the $15M+ range each.

I get this. But if I'm the braves I'm only buying if the price comes down to my price.

No way I do allard. I'd want to get at least one fa team option in an extension

Anderson plus pache plus mueller plus Blair or wisler. That's probably my top. Maybe I'd include gohara but I'm not sure.

[Enscheff]

I get this. But if I'm the braves I'm only buying if the price comes down to my price.

No way I do allard. I'd want to get at least one fa team option in an extension

Anderson plus pache plus mueller plus Blair or wisler. That's probably my top. Maybe I'd include gohara but I'm not sure.

If you look at the returns the A's tend to get for their premium players, they always seem to value guys that are MLB-ready.

Coppy may be able to get the bulk of the deal centered around older guys like Sims, Newk, DPete, Rio, etc.

That's the most posi spin I can put on this for you guys haha.

[Russ2dollas]

That's one way to handle it. But the further it goes a long the less he will be worth. Maybe he is more valuable to the Braves than he is on the open market for a trade.

Looks like if you get the MLB number 2 and 3 from the mariners you get a decent chance at a solid 5 for next year. Maybe you kick in wisler or blair

[Russ2dollas]

If you look at the returns the A's tend to get for their premium players, they always seem to value guys that are MLB-ready.

Coppy may be able to get the bulk of the deal centered around older guys like Sims, Newk, DPete, Rio, etc.

That's the most posi spin I can put on this for you guys haha.

Love this. Look if beane says I'm keeping him fine. Try again in the offseason. If someone pays the premium like q then you happily lose the bid

Maybe you sell
Anderson-top 50. Top 5 pick.
Rio-money all is good at platoons right?
Sims-good numbers. Ready. May have best value in that park. Former first rounder
Blair-former top 50 ready now
Pache. Top 100 with upside.

Take the poo poo platter

[Heyward]

If you look at the returns the A's tend to get for their premium players, they always seem to value guys that are MLB-ready.

Coppy may be able to get the bulk of the deal centered around older guys like Sims, Newk, DPete, Rio, etc.

That's the most posi spin I can put on this for you guys haha.

This is true, they didnt get full value for Donaldson, Doolittle/Madson among others.

But if we could get him for Allard as the big piece and then some MLB parts, that would be a win for Coppy.

[Oklahomabrave]

The cash savings would make sense if we are trying to pick up someone like Axford from the A's to reduce prospect cost.

[Enscheff]

Love this. Look if beane says I'm keeping him fine. Try again in the offseason. If someone pays the premium like q then you happily lose the bid

Maybe you sell
Anderson-top 50. Top 5 pick.
Rio-money all is good at platoons right?
Sims-good numbers. Ready. May have best value in that park. Former first rounder
Blair-former top 50 ready now
Pache. Top 100 with upside.

Take the poo poo platter

This is an excellent point I hadn't yet considered.

The A's may be the team that values Sims the most out of all MLB teams. High Ks, lots of flyballs....perfect for Oakland's stadium.

He has also been skipped over in favor of Blair for no real reason, which could be because the A's covet him.

At this point I would be shocked if he WASN'T part of the trade to get Gray.

[ixiXSolidXixi]

At mlbtv they just talk that we should try to get Machado. For Albies and a pack of pitchers because this should get fans to the seats.

[Enscheff]

At mlbtv they just talk that we should try to get Machado. For Albies and a pack of pitchers because this should get fans to the seats.

Those guys are brilliant

[Pugfan]

It's probably illustrative to do the Gray valuation again. I can't remember where I posted it before, so I'll try to replicate it.

Gray is projected to produce 1.1 fWAR at a cost of $1.2M for the rest of this season. Multiplying by a 2x contender's premium, that's about $20M in surplus value just for this year.

Gray will probably earn ~$15M in his final 2 years of arbitration, and is probably projected to produce ~6 WAR over that time. That's a surplus value of about $45M over the next 2 years with limited downside risk due to the fact he can simply be non-tendered.

So how do the Braves get to $65M in surplus value to get him right now? Here's the updated values of the Braves Top 100 prospects:

Wright $32.10
Acuna $69.67
Albies $45.34
Soroka $32.56
Allard $30.72
Gohara $15.20
Anderson $17.03
Maitan $20.82

Plus Pache and Waters in the $15M+ range each.

I'd give them Newcomb, Allard and Waters

[Hudson2]

I'd give them Newcomb, Allard and Waters

No way I give that much for Gray

[Heyward]

@Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #Brewers fading in Sonny Gray discussions.

Braves vs Yankees for Gray.

[Oklahomabrave]

@Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #Brewers fading in Sonny Gray discussions.

Braves vs Yankees for Gray.

Maybe Astros

[Deester11]

No way I give that much for Gray

Waters can't be traded yet anyway. I wouldn't do that trade either though. Just no to Gray.

[Enscheff]

Maybe Astros

If the Astros aren't willing to include Tucker, and the Yanks aren't willing to include Torres or Frazier, Allard might end up being the biggest chip available to the A's.

[TheBravos]

Or we could be smart and just say no. If real contenders (who are more desperate than us),won't give up their good prospects...that should tell you something.

[Oklahomabrave]

If the Astros aren't willing to include Tucker, and the Yanks aren't willing to include Torres or Frazier, Allard might end up being the biggest chip available to the A's.

I had similar thoughts. I don't want to "outbid" anyone for Gray, but if nobody else is willing to include their top prospects I'd be happy
To out depth everyone else.

[Oklahomabrave]

I had similar thoughts. I don't want to "outbid" anyone for Gray, but if nobody else is willing to include their top prospects I'd be happy
To out depth everyone else.

Of course when I thought Quintana might be had for slightly less than his value the Cubs gave up Eloy. We'll see though.

[Enscheff]

Of course when I thought Quintana might be had for slightly less than his value the Cubs gave up Eloy. We'll see though.

I'm not saying it's a good idea to get Gray right now, nor do I think the Braves are likely to get him for some sort of discount.

I'm mainly just tossing out ideas where trading for Gray wouldn't be a complete disaster.

[chop2chip]

If Allard is the centerpiece, then I think we should give Gray a go.