Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread

[gilesfan]

The surplus value logic is worthless and I'm a "stathead." Different teams have different ranks on players and different teams are looking for different things/positions/traits/etc. A lot of times you will see teams have soured on a prospect in their system despite the national rankings being high.

[Super]

The surplus value logic is worthless and I'm a "stathead." Different teams have different ranks on players and different teams are looking for different things/positions/traits/etc. A lot of times you will see teams have soured on a prospect in their system despite the national rankings being high.

Yup. We have no clue how individual teams value players/prospects. It's all about eventual results.

[Chico]

Just like anything...surplus value of prospects it's a good tool but far from definitive

This...I do believe it's a good tool, but it's one of many tools.

[thewupk]

"The idea of trade value being defined by prospects’ place on a list somehow has come into prominence, and it is the height of absurdity, as if being top 50 on one person’s subjective list, as opposed to top 75, makes one particular trade more valuable than others."

Good read.

This is true. There isn't much difference between a low grade 55 FV player or a high grade 50 FV player.

[thewupk]

It is sort of a worthless point, to be honest, that also still has some level of truth haha.

If his argument is that surplus value figures are pulled out of thin air and attached to players based on their prospect list standing, then that's dumb. The figures are historical figures based on past data; that is how much surplus value prospects in those ranges have provided in the recent past.

But it still does bear repeating that figures like that derived from aggregate data will always give you that kind of progression. All it really says is that the people who rank prospects at least have some idea of what they're talking about. Prospects in the 1-10 range, in the aggregate, will be better than prospects in the 11-25 range. What that doesn't mean, though, is that a single prospect ranked 10 differs in any tangible way from a prospect ranked 15 or 20 in a given year. It all averages out over time, which is why the aggregate data gives you the results it does. But in a single instance? It's not really very useful at all in assigning any true value to a single prospect.

It's also why Fangraphs has gone to a FV based system instead of purely on their rankings in a top 100 list. As you said. Not all 1-10 or top 25 lists in a given year are equal.

[thewupk]

The surplus value logic is worthless and I'm a "stathead." Different teams have different ranks on players and different teams are looking for different things/positions/traits/etc. A lot of times you will see teams have soured on a prospect in their system despite the national rankings being high.

It's so worthless that almost every trade lines up....lol

[thewupk]

I doubt it works either. But I'd give it a shot. Maybe he'd bet on himself and instead of getting 25 million for 6 years he thinks he can get 30 for two and then get a bigger deal.

I thought Olivera made more...so yea....sucks. I still think we can afford to move Kemp and Neck to a bench role since the replacements will be so cheap. Everyone thinks Peterson and Acuna will out War those guys just on Defense, right? What's a reasonable WAR for those guys? 1 for Peterson with a shot at 2? 2 for Acuna with a shot at more? Our WAR for Kemp and Neck is close to zero, right?

I think 1 and 2 with upside for more is fair for both Peterson and Acuna. And yes Kemp and Neck are literally not worth any value to the Braves with their on the field performance. They should either be benched or dumped but that obviously isn't going to happen.

[Russ2dollas]

I think 1 and 2 with upside for more is fair for both Peterson and Acuna. And yes Kemp and Neck are literally not worth any value to the Braves with their on the field performance. They should either be benched or dumped but that obviously isn't going to happen.

I am assuming it won't either in real life....but maybe they will since they are doing it with Phillips now.

Honestly the Neck deal isn't that bad. Neck plays RF for a month of next season then you bring up Acuna. 11 million isn't that much. You'd have a minimum 4th OF that can play CF anyway so it's the same money. Neck is a pro and he won't cause a stink. He would probably be great to have as an option late when you need a single with runners on. He could play every 5th day if you wanted to spell Acuna and Peterson.

Kemp is the big hairy deal. I have to wonder if someone in the AL will take him to be a DH if we pay 20-30 million. I still don't know if the Coppy will do it but it needs doing. We could carry him as a bench player if we have to eat that much.

It would be weird if the Braves kept everyone and had Neck (11 million), Kemp (18 million + 3 from Pads) and Adams (8 million?) on the bench. It would be a good veteran bench. Comargo and Albies can play all over the infield. Acuna can back up CF. You could do it.

[TheBravos]

I am assuming it won't either in real life....but maybe they will since they are doing it with Phillips now.

Honestly the Neck deal isn't that bad. Neck plays RF for a month of next season then you bring up Acuna. 11 million isn't that much. You'd have a minimum 4th OF that can play CF anyway so it's the same money. Neck is a pro and he won't cause a stink. He would probably be great to have as an option late when you need a single with runners on. He could play every 5th day if you wanted to spell Acuna and Peterson.

Kemp is the big hairy deal. I have to wonder if someone in the AL will take him to be a DH if we pay 20-30 million. I still don't know if the Coppy will do it but it needs doing. We could carry him as a bench player if we have to eat that much.

It would be weird if the Braves kept everyone and had Neck (11 million), Kemp (18 million + 3 from Pads) and Adams (8 million?) on the bench. It would be a good veteran bench. Comargo and Albies can play all over the infield. Acuna can back up CF. You could do it.

They just saved 4.5 million from Garcia. Move Nick and eat that much of it (still saves you 7 mil.). Nick should be decently easy to move in that case. Kemp needs to go also...somehow....hopefully. He will be one hammy strain after another. I really think he would do better as a DH though with less wear and tear. He may do really REALLY well in the AL.

[ixiXSolidXixi]

Why we dont trade Markakis to Tigers for Upton they free money. We move Markakis contract. Then we can call Acuna and move Kemp maybe at mid season or just keep it until the end of the year.

[nsacpi]

Yup. We have no clue how individual teams value players/prospects. It's all about eventual results.

That's right. The individual team's valuations are not known. But that doesn't necessarily mean that surplus value based on publicly available prospect lists or projections of production is useless. It is a good though not perfect proxy for the unknown valuations of individual teams. When trades happen that don't make sense based on publicly available proxies for surplus value one of two things is happening. One of the teams has a valuation much different than the publicly available proxies. Or one of the teams is clueless and did something really dumb. I suspect most of the time it is the former, but I also believe that the latter happens as well from time to time.

By the way there are lots of other situations where proxies are used for something that is unknown. Firms hire workers based on education and references, which serve as a proxy for the worker's productivity. People buy and sell stocks based on projections of future profits, which serve as proxies for the unknown future path of profits. Using proxies for an unobservable variable is a very common thing in many fields.

[Super]

That's right. The individual team's valuations are not known. But that doesn't necessarily mean that surplus value based on publicly available prospect lists or projections of production is useless. It is a good though not perfect proxy for the unknown valuations of individual teams. When trades happen that don't make sense based on publicly available proxies for surplus value one of two things is happening. One of the teams has a valuation much different than the publicly available proxies. Or one of the teams is clueless and did something really dumb. I suspect most of the time it is the former, but I also believe that the latter happens as well from time to time.

By the way there are lots of other situations where proxies are used for something that is unknown. Firms hire workers based on education and references, which serve as a proxy for the worker's productivity. People buy and sell stocks based on projections of future profits, which serve as proxies for the unknown future path of profits. Using proxies for an unobservable variable is a very common thing in many fields.

I don't think they are useless, but used too much in making definitive statements.

[nsacpi]

I don't think they are useless, but used too much in making definitive statements.

If you look at post 2602 of this thread you will see yourself agreeing with another post that claims it is worthless.

[Super]

If you look at post 2602 of this thread you will see yourself agreeing with another post that claims it is worthless.

I agreed with the "teams value different players differently than others." I even mentioned it in my post. Curious why you chose to address me rather than the original poster of the "worthless" comment, though.

[nsacpi]

I should have quoted his post...i guess I used yours as a proxy

[Super]

i guess I used yours as a proxy

didn't end up well, huh

[CJ9]

Gammons said we put Jim Johnson and Dickey on waivers. I'd imagine Phillips was too or will be soon.

[bravesfanMatt]

Gammons said we put Jim Johnson and Dickey on waivers. I'd imagine Phillips was too or will be soon.

I would think JJ and Dickey have a shot at getting claimed. We could easily put Kemp and Neck with no worries what so ever.

[Super]

Phillips has 1.6 fWAR this year. He's playing fairly well.

[Russ2dollas]

They just saved 4.5 million from Garcia. Move Nick and eat that much of it (still saves you 7 mil.). Nick should be decently easy to move in that case. Kemp needs to go also...somehow....hopefully. He will be one hammy strain after another. I really think he would do better as a DH though with less wear and tear. He may do really REALLY well in the AL.

I just think Neck has some value. The Braves will want a vet. Neck can still play. OBP is still good. I don't want Acuna up until we gain the extra year next year. I'd keep him on the bench for a year. He could back up Peterson and Acuna.

Kemp is the killer deal.