Let's start taking predictions haha. Will Freeman be regular bad, Adonis bad, or Kemp bad at 3B?
No, I'm saying it's silly to risk moving the best 1B in the game to 3B in an attempt to keep Matt Adams in the lineup.
Taking a huge hit on defense at 3B to add a .775-.800 OPS bat at 1B is stupid enough. Risking the most valuable asset the Atlanta Braves control for such a moronic idea is just icing on the dumdum cake.
It was almost as dumb as moving Chipper to LF and starting his injury problems so Vinny Castilla could post terrible numbers at 3B...Wait a second, same FO, same stupid idea. Makes sense now!
Last edited by Enscheff; 06-21-2017 at 01:37 PM.
Prikichi (06-28-2017)
Garmel (06-21-2017)
My point is that none of us know... even you. The game is played on the field. I love watching the games. I love cheering for the players. The statistics are a useful tool, but it is possible to become overdependent on them. I hope Adams proves you wrong. I don't know if he will, but it will be fun to find out.
It is cool that you have a hobby of analyzing data and trying to predict outcomes in baseball. I actually enjoy your analysis... right up to the point when you start name calling toward everyone who disagrees with you.
Can we all please just put enscheff on your ignore list so I don't even have to read his quoted posts? The guy isn't a Braves fan and is here merely to troll and get attention because he can't get it anywhere else.
AerchAngel (06-22-2017), chopdrew (06-21-2017), IowaBrave14 (06-21-2017), Super (06-21-2017)
1. A player's rate over an eight year period is probably not the measure. Plenty of those guys have significantly exceeded their career rates over peak periods.
2. Adams rate in 2017 is 20% not 27%. If you find his time in Atlanta to be a significantly different set of data, then why you are arguing that he's going to regress to his career norm? I don't think you can have it both ways.
3. Last season, before losing 30 pounds with work in the weight room and before having better fitness, Adams had a 15% rate in 2016 playing part time, when he hit 16 HRs. He's increased that by 5% which is significant, but not insane.
4. Yes, he's probably going to regress to some degree. The question is whether better strength and fitness, a better lefty hitter's park, and certain playing time has allowed Adams to improve. Unfortunately, we know it is extremely unlikely he will continue to play every day for the remainder of the season.
My guess is that he finishes 2017 with somewhat better peripherals than 2016, but not like he is putting up now.
Garmel (06-21-2017), Managuarantano's Volunteers (06-21-2017)
Imagine we all live in a desert. It has rained for 3 straight days.
Board: we should invest in an umbrella store now that it rains all the time
Me: data from the last 100 years shows it will not likely rain enough to make an umbrella store profitable.
Board: I think the climate has suddenly changed in this area of the world
Board: I think couches are more comfortable than chairs
Board: can't we just open the store and sit back and see what happens?
Board: derp, blue door knob, derp.
Me: lol ok guys.
Baked later that year: it doesn't rain here enough to make profit selling umbrellas. It was chilly last night tho, so let's sell winter coats instead.
Me: wow guys.
Last edited by Enscheff; 06-21-2017 at 02:13 PM.
http://www.hearthpwn.com/members/Enscheff/posts
I don't know what that is, but this enscheff seems more like a 26 year old gaming nerd rather than the macho man he desperately wants strangers on the internet to see him as.
I second the whole just ignore him thing. Only way to make a troll go away.
Yes, I work in the gaming industry. It's a little pathetic you decided to Google my user name though. Wow lol.
What exactly do you think I've ever lied about? As usual, I'll offer a "leave the board bet" to someone trying to call me out. And as usual, you won't take me up on it.
Wouldn't it be easiest just to catch me in a lie and have me gone forever? It would only take one of you twits to accept...
Last edited by Enscheff; 06-21-2017 at 02:23 PM.
Man this is exhausting...Every thread turns in to this
Managuarantano's Volunteers (06-21-2017)
No. Not reading other people's statements and breaking off digestible pieces that fits your POV is you. Flowers was brought up because he has noticeably improved. Talking chop did a deep statistical dive on it. From his time at the White Sox he is a much better hitter. He's made changes. That is a possible thing. You speak like you know that Adams isn't better.
Best shape of my life is a fun meme for spring training. But it could be a reason Adams is better. I didn't say he was better because of that. Nor did I say he was better at all. I made the comment because of your amazing arrogance where you make definitive statements about most everything.
I wish we had posts from you in 2009 telling us how Bautista had to, just has to, go back to his negative WAR time in Pittsburgh.
When describing a change in Hr/FB% from 15% to 20%, you would think that increased strength/fitness, regular playing time, and a better park for left handed power hitters might account for some of it.
Or you could deny that out of hand and come up with a complicated straw man that uses climate change as a metaphor.
Not hard to guess which way Scheffy went with it.
1940
Board: I don't know if I should follow my Dad and be a cooper.
Enscheff: My data says barrels have always been needed. The avg barrel per year is X and it will return to the mean.
Board: I think there are more options for shipping...
Enscheff: You are an idiot. Things always go back the way they were.
2013
Board: Chris Johnson really has a high batting avg
Enscheff: No he will regress to the mean. He'll suck.
Board: That is not how stats work. He will go back toward his true talent level but there is nothing that says he'll go back this year.
Enscheff: IT WILL HAPPEN. I SAY SO. You are all IDIOTS.