You mean his career when he was 30 pounds heavier? He's in great shape. In his prime. Playing in a great ballpark for his skills.
I'm not betting he's a 900 OPS guy either. But to just say he's going to do this is overstating. He's not hitting wallscrapers. He could have made a change. Is Flowers automatically going to go back to a sub 100 wrc+? I bet you told us that last year.
Given he has lost a massive amount of weight that could be aiding his production. How long does he need to continue doing this until we say..."This is The new Matt Adams."? The trade deadline? The end of the year? I agree he is hot, but I disagree that he will completely regress. I think it will be somewhere in the middle. I think him getting in better shape has at least something to do with his production.
Ah yes, the BSOML talking point lol.
Bringing up Flowers show you have no idea what you're talking about. Flowers is running an unsustainable BABIP of .402 right now. His career mark is in the .330 range. So yes, Flowers current offensive output is also not likely to continue.
Flowers has, however, made real improvements in his BB and K rates over the last 2 years. He is a true talent .750-.800 OPS guy, not the .895 OPS he is currently posting.
For reference, here are the highest HR/FB rates for all qualified hitters from 2010-now:
Name HR/FB
Giancarlo Stanton 25.40%
Chris Davis 25.00%
Miguel Sano 24.00%
George Springer 23.40%
Pedro Alvarez 22.90%
Khris Davis 22.70%
Justin Bour 22.30%
Steven Souza Jr. 21.30%
Adam Dunn 21.10%
Chris Carter 20.80%
That list consists of guys with 70+ raw power, and all of them have a lower rate than Adams.
Is it starting to sink in just how unsustainable Adams' current 27% HR/FB rate is? Or does the board braintrust now think Adams has more power than Stanton and Sano, the premier power hitters in the game today?
Last edited by Enscheff; 06-21-2017 at 12:50 PM.
OH GOOD GRIEF. Nobody is saying that he will sustain exactly what he is doing now. Only that he is somewhere between where he was before and where he is now. That is a very valuable hitter.
We understand 'regression to the mean,' all other things being equal. It is fun to look at what other things might not be equal (losing 30 pounds, getting to play every day, playing in a park that favors LH power hitters), and wonder if those things might make him truly a better hitter than he was before those things happened.
Lighten up and have a discussion without berating anyone who doesn't bow to your vastly superior statistical understanding.
AerchAngel (06-22-2017), Garmel (06-21-2017), mfree80 (06-21-2017), Ozzie Swanson (06-21-2017)
Huh? Nobody predicts when someone is going to have a lucky HR/FB streak. The best anyone can do is make sure their projections aren't skewed by something unsustainable.
What point are you even trying to make? Another desperate attempt to make me "wrong" about something...anything?
Chopping With The Braves And Rolling With The Tide
Lol oh my... you give yourself way too credit. I enjoy this board bc I love the braves. I made the KEMvP bet bc I thought he'd have a good year and give me something to keep up with once the braves are done with any longshot playoff hopes. Most of the time I just assume to troll you as actually argue with you. Posting here obviously isn't as life-and-death to me as it is to you. Dig in enscheff and prove you are the absolute greatest pretend GM to ever grace the message board world. You the man
Last edited by msstate7; 06-21-2017 at 01:27 PM.
AerchAngel (06-22-2017), Garmel (06-21-2017)