Swanson & Camargo

[atl717]

He's improving, the power is proof of that. He can be a quality utility guy. Can't see him being more than that unless he started walking. Rio Ruiz is the guy who should be up here. He's got the patience and emerging pop. Needs to figure out lefties.

[thewupk]

Thanks. I still can't seem to find xBABIP numbers. Where do you get them from?

Link please.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the...mnibus/#xBABIP

You have to input the data yourself to calculate it. But it's based on things like ld%, hard hit%, etc that fangraphs uses. Of course that can be somewhat subjective and I'd prefer statcast data but I don't know if anyone is using that league wide yet.

[Enscheff]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the...mnibus/#xBABIP

You have to input the data yourself to calculate it. But it's based on things like ld%, hard hit%, etc that fangraphs uses. Of course that can be somewhat subjective and I'd prefer statcast data but I don't know if anyone is using that league wide yet.

Ahh yeah, I was hoping someone had it listed somewhere. FG should just add it to their site.

[thethe]

You do like to bet on the impossible

I prefer to call it choosing to live optimistically.

[thewupk]

Ahh yeah, I was hoping someone had it listed somewhere. FG should just add it to their site.

There are several versions of that calculator and it's constantly being updated so that's probably why they don't have it. I suspect once a good formula is worked out using statcast data that they put that in there.

[JxnMissFan]

Now that I'm at my work PC, and FG has last night's stats updated, here are Camargo's present numbers with BABIPs of .300, .320, and .340. I will remove singles and doubles in a 2:1 ratio as I remove his hits since that's the ratio in which he has accumulated them (will err on the side of removing more singles to give him the best possible outcome).

He currently has 33 hits in 80 balls in play (HRs are not included), for a BABIP of 0.4125.

.300 BABIP: 24 hits in 80 balls in play, removed 6 singles and 3 doubles, leads to a slash line of .231/.264/.375 (.639 OPS)
.320 BABIP: 26 hits in 80 balls in play, removed 5 singles and 2 doubles, leads to a slash line of .250/.282/.404 (.686 OPS)
.340 BABIP: 27 hits in 80 balls in play, removed 4 singles and 2 doubles, leads to a slash line of .260/.291/.413 (.704 OPS)

We aren't having this discussion if Camargo had a sustainable BABIP right now.

Why is this important? So future decisions aren't made based on results that are unsustainable. A stat is only useful if it can be used to predict future performance. Otherwise, it's nothing more than a curiosity.

Remember when Chris Johnson won the batting title in 2013 on the back of an unsustainable BABIP of .394? Remember when the Braves then foolishly gave him a $23.5M contract extension based off that year? Remember when he came crashing back to Earth the next year with a .650 OPS after his BABIP normalized to .345 in 2014? Finally, remember when the Braves had to take on Swisher and Bourn to dump that contract?

Yeah, I remember all that. Let's not make another decision based on unsustainable BABIP. OK?

Exactly.

I like Camargo and think he can be a good utility player but I suggest pumping the brakes on him until his BABIP normalizes. He will be a better utility player than Jace.

I think Carmargo and Demeritte need to be groomed as utility players. With 8 man bullpens you have to have players than can play multiple positions.

[Enscheff]

I prefer to call it choosing to live optimistically.

Isn't it annoying having sand constantly in your eyes, mouth and hair? How do you breathe with your head in the sand for so much time?