First data for Freeman's defense at 3b

[Enscheff]

The first data for Freeman's defense at 3B is in...and it ain't pretty. Small sample caveats obviously apply but:

BRef: -39 runs per year
FG: -89 runs per 150 games

So....yeah. It's pretty damn bad.

So far, it's even worse than the -20 I expected.

[msstate7]

Don't remember many opportunities for him

[Enscheff]

Don't remember many opportunities for him

That's because the "eye test" is terrible at picking up plays that weren't even attempted due to lack of range.

These metrics are less about making errors on balls hit right at guys, and more about guys making the non-routine plays. If an average defender at 3B makes 50% of the non-routine plays, and Freeman makes 0% of them, that's a huge hit to his defensive value.

[bravesfanMatt]

How much is his one error hampering those numbers. I haven't watched every game.. but has there really been many balls that could have even been up for debate?

[Enscheff]

How much is his one error hampering those numbers. I haven't watched every game.. but has there really been many balls that could have even been up for debate?

Again, these metrics are less about making errors on balls hit right at guys, and more about guys making the non-routine plays. If an average defender at 3B makes 50% of the non-routine plays, and Freeman makes 0% of them, that's a huge hit to his defensive value.

[Southcack77]

Again, these metrics are less about making errors on balls hit right at guys, and more about guys making the non-routine plays. If an average defender at 3B makes 50% of the non-routine plays, and Freeman makes 0% of them, that's a huge hit to his defensive value.

While I anticipate that the trend will hold and Freeman will prove to be this bad at 3B, it's probably not enough data to go on yet.

[bravesfanMatt]

Again, these metrics are less about making errors on balls hit right at guys, and more about guys making the non-routine plays. If an average defender at 3B makes 50% of the non-routine plays, and Freeman makes 0% of them, that's a huge hit to his defensive value.

Right, but does it give how many chances. I understand the SSS caveat.. But this seems Super SSS.. I can think of one right now that might have been in question.. (double down the line)

[chop2chip]

Granted I haven't watched every inning but I can't recall a single ball hit to him yet except a pop up (which he caught).

I would draw exactly negative seven conclusions from this data.

[Enscheff]

Granted I haven't watched every inning but I can't recall a single ball hit to him yet except a pop up (which he caught).

I would draw exactly negative seven conclusions from this data.

If you can't recall a single ball hit to him, then you haven't watched much at all.

Anyways, I completely expected pozzies to dismiss this data since it goes against their belief that Freeman can play 3B.

I doubt he will be -80 or -40 runs per year bad, but it shouldn't take long to realize he is unplayable at 3B.

[bravesfanMatt]

Granted I haven't watched every inning but I can't recall a single ball hit to him yet except a pop up (which he caught).

I would draw exactly negative seven conclusions from this data.

there was a double down the line that would have been a tough play. He has handled a couple of ground outs.. there was an error which I missed a couple of games ago. I just don't see how there is even enough data to put these numbers together...

[bravesfanMatt]

If you can't recall a single ball hit to him, then you haven't watched much at all.

Anyways, I completely expected pozzies to dismiss this data since it goes against their belief that Freeman can play 3B.

I doubt he will be -80 or -40 runs per year bad, but it shouldn't take long to realize he is unplayable at 3B.

I wasn't disagreeing with him playing or not.. this just feels like a guy hitting .750 after 2 games irrelevant.

[sturg33]

If you can't recall a single ball hit to him, then you haven't watched much at all.

Anyways, I completely expected pozzies to dismiss this data since it goes against their belief that Freeman can play 3B.

I doubt he will be -80 or -40 runs per year bad, but it shouldn't take long to realize he is unplayable at 3B.

I'm guessing the sample size is so small that that error actually crushed his numbers. That's a play that is made 99/100 times, and he booted it. Considering his lack of reps, I'd imagine that did his numbers in so far.

I can recall another two plays where a good third basemen probably makes the play

I'm sure time will show he can't hack it over there. I'm hoping we're just trying to use this time to help Adams' value inch up a little bit more before 7/31.

With the emergance of Camargo and SRod coming back, there is no way this experiment continues

[chop2chip]

If you can't recall a single ball hit to him, then you haven't watched much at all.

Anyways, I completely expected pozzies to dismiss this data since it goes against their belief that Freeman can play 3B.

I doubt he will be -80 or -40 runs per year bad, but it shouldn't take long to realize he is unplayable at 3B.

Honest question, do you really believe this data means anything yet?

I think everybody acknowledges Freddie is going to be horrible at third. It's just that this data isn't any more of a bit of proof than Camargo going 3-4 and being labeled the next A-Rod.

[chop2chip]

I'm guessing the sample size is so small that that error actually crushed his numbers. That's a play that is made 99/100 times, and he booted it. Considering his lack of reps, I'd imagine that did his numbers in so far.

I can recall another two plays where a good third basemen probably makes the play

I'm sure time will show he can't hack it over there. I'm hoping we're just trying to use this time to help Adams' value inch up a little bit more before 7/31.

With the emergance of Camargo and SRod coming back, there is no way this experiment continues

Perfectly stated.

[Enscheff]

Honest question, do you really believe this data means anything yet?

I think everybody acknowledges Freddie is going to be anything but horrible at third. It's just that this data isn't any more of a bit of proof then Camargo going 3-4 and being labeled the next A-Rod.

Like I said, it's highly unlikely Freeman is a -80 or -40 defender at 3B.

However, it is highly likely this data is already showing he is unplayable at 3B.

If you want to dismiss the data, the onus is on you to do it with your own data. Go use FG's split leader boards to find other 40 inning stretches by guys at 3B that resulted in -80, and see where that data leads you. Is it common for average or below average defenders to have 40 inning stretches that bad?

Idle speculation is worthless, it's just being contrarian and contributes nothing to the discussion.

[chop2chip]

When reliable data is available, I will be glad to parse it and I'm sure it will show FF is unplayable at third.

Until then, I don't see the need to make any conclusions off of an enormously small sample size.

[Russ2dollas]

You can watch him move and know he can't play 3B. This is silly.

he's bad. Adams is not that good. Even his 850-900 OPS version of himself isn't that great at 1B. It's cheap production but it's not special.

I'd rather have Chase Hedley at 3B (as part of a salary dump to get a good midlevel Yankees piece) plus freeman at 1B than Freeman and adams on opposite sides of the diamond.

I don't see how anyone can want Allard and Soroka even thinking about pitching in MLB with that defense behind them.

I'm not mister defensive metrics but we can't just punt on the corners and put bottom 10% defenders in every corner spot.

I'd rather play Rio over there and hope Rio can turn 24/25 years old and get a little more power. I'd feel better about Rio finding a way to an 800 OPS with average or a little better defense than Freeman and Adams.

[nsacpi]

I'm guessing Adams is going to only play against righties going forward...that'll improve the terms of the defense/offense tradeoff

[thewupk]

I'm guessing the sample size is so small that that error actually crushed his numbers. That's a play that is made 99/100 times, and he booted it. Considering his lack of reps, I'd imagine that did his numbers in so far.

I can recall another two plays where a good third basemen probably makes the play

I'm sure time will show he can't hack it over there. I'm hoping we're just trying to use this time to help Adams' value inch up a little bit more before 7/31.

With the emergance of Camargo and SRod coming back, there is no way this experiment continues

For UZR that is certainly the case. He is at -0.7 in errors and -0.5 in range. Now I certainly don't think he's going to be something like -20 or -30 runs just in errors alone because that is absurd. But the -0.5 in range so far is pretty troubling and not all that surprising. Those per 150 game numbers will improve as he gets more playing time there but they still won't be pretty.

[Enscheff]

For UZR that is certainly the case. He is at -0.7 in errors and -0.5 in range. Now I certainly don't think he's going to be something like -20 or -30 runs just in errors alone because that is absurd. But the -0.5 in range so far is pretty troubling and not all that surprising. Those per 150 game numbers will improve as he gets more playing time there but they still won't be pretty.

This is why I can't stand the idiotic argument folks make when they say "he catches what he gets to", as if that's all it takes to be a competent defender.

If his range is so limited he can't get to much of anything, he is a terrible defender.

This is precisely why the "eye test" is such a terrible way to judge defenders. Hell, we just had a poster in this very thread say, "I haven't seen him get any plays", and then proceed to question these defensive numbers. He was using the eye test...yet hasn't even SEEN any of the plays in question.

It is comical how bad fans are at judging defense. No wonder they have no idea how to value it. Unfortunately, the Braves FO doesn't seem to be much better.