AcuñaMania

[Super]

It is not much appreciated around here, but in his first six seasons Heyward had four seasons with a WAR in excess of 4.5, 3 in excess of 5 and two in excess of 6. I would the thrilled if Acuna did something like that.

From your past comments, I know you see Heyward in a more hazy light than I do, but during those first six years (which are the ones that really matter since after those six years most players get paid market rate) Heyward was a tremendously productive player.

I know he was. I loved Heyward and I miss watching him play (at least defensively).
His offense was always a little frustrating to me, outside of his rookie year & 2012. He's only 28 so he could still rebound, but it's very possible he's finished as a productive offensive player. His WAR was usually up there for his defense, and maybe WAR is right, but I'm not sure.
I hope and think Acuna will be more consistent offensively and for a longer period of time.

[nsacpi]

I know he was. I loved Heyward and I miss watching him play (at least defensively).
His offense was always a little frustrating to me, outside of his rookie year & 2012. He's only 28 so he could still rebound, but it's very possible he's finished as a productive offensive player. His WAR was usually up there for his defense, and maybe WAR is right, but I'm not sure.
I hope and think Acuna will be more consistent offensively and for a longer period of time.

Most likely though Acuna will be viewed as a disappointment. Due to the haze of high expectations.

[sturg33]

Folks would do well to look at how good Heyward was during his A+/AA/AAA tour as a 19 year old. The 1.066 OPS he posted in AA was on the back of a .360 BABIP...40 points lower than the BABIP Acuna has been rocking for his 1.000 OPS.

Are folks going to say Acuna is faster and hits the ball harder than a young Heyward?

And yes, folks should be doing back flips if Acuna produces 27 WAR over his first 6 years of control like Heyward did.

Yep... I posted many pages ago that Acuna's numbers are less impressive than Heyward's at the same age, and Heyward is seen as an "average hitter"

[nsacpi]

Yep... I posted many pages ago that Acuna's numbers are less impressive than Heyward's at the same age, and Heyward is seen as an "average hitter"

People used the word average in a peculiar way. Anyone not a really outstanding hitter it would seem would fit into the average category.

It is what I call the haze of high expectations. Haze is a view obscured by smoke. But not all types of smoke affect our ability to see equally. There are some who are more disposed toward particular types of haze.

[nsacpi]

I know he was. I loved Heyward and I miss watching him play (at least defensively).
His offense was always a little frustrating to me, outside of his rookie year & 2012. He's only 28 so he could still rebound, but it's very possible he's finished as a productive offensive player. His WAR was usually up there for his defense, and maybe WAR is right, but I'm not sure.
I hope and think Acuna will be more consistent offensively and for a longer period of time.

i just think you need to be careful not to get too high on Acuna...that's all...sorry to be so blunt but I think it could lead to impaired judgment and slow reaction times

[Super]

i just think you need to be careful not to get too high on Acuna...that's all...sorry to be so blunt but I think it could lead to impaired judgment and slow reaction times

thanks dad, i will temper my expectations (that i have not stated).

[smootness]

You never do. All you do is post contrarian comments without ever contributing a single original thought of your own.

I literally made a prediction in the same paragraph as the comment you bolded.

Good one, though!

[Super]

Yep... I posted many pages ago that Acuna's numbers are less impressive than Heyward's at the same age, and Heyward is seen as an "average hitter"

But Heyward produced his best offensively his rookie year and regressed from there. Acuna could go the way of Heyward or the way of Freeman offensively. He could just as easily not even be as good as Heyward was the year or two before becoming a free agent. Heyward is a peculiar case because it was completely reasonable to expect more offensive production from him based on pretty much everything.

[nsacpi]

thanks dad, i will temper my expectations (that i have not stated).

sorry to pick on you...my message applies to all the children around here

[Super]

sorry to pick on you...my message applies to all the children around here

no worries i just ask that you PM me some fluff pieces on myself at this time.

[nsacpi]

no worries i just ask that you PM me some fluff pieces on myself at this time.

i'll look for some

[Enscheff]

This is why Acuna is not #1:

Philbert
10:28 Of everyone with at least 50 PA at A+ in their age-18 season between 2006 and 2016, the best wRC+ is 117. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently at 174 in 173 plate appearances.

Jeff Sullivan
10:28 A teenager with power, and more walks than strikeouts. He's an absurdity

[Enscheff]

I literally made a prediction in the same paragraph as the comment you bolded.

Good one, though!

LOL, yes, you predicted his MLB BABIP will be .340.

That is clv level stupid.

[thewupk]

But have you looked at his batted ball profile? I don't understand why on some arguments you guys seem to ignore the data you usually prefer. 'I don't think there's any way he can do that because not many players do, and he's not good enough.' That doesn't seem like a good enough answer to me. Since when is a 'he's not good enough' opinion satisfactory for you when discussing something like BABIP?

I haven't and when I get home I will look at it

[thewupk]

That's certainly fair enough.

Is this 4% number all major league position players, or just starters? If it's just starters, then on average you still have one every 3 teams. If it includes all players, it's probably higher, more like one every 2. Either way, I don't think it's insane to think that the top prospect in baseball, who has plenty of speed and has sustained a very high BABIP in the minors, could be one of those guys.

4% of players since 2000 who have enough qualified plate apperances(800 plus players) had the 340 babip mark or higher for that period. That's a good enough sample for me but extending it out may yield different results.

[thewupk]

Didn't he have a 114 exit velo in the AS game?

Has no bearing on babip

[smootness]

Yes, we do. Scroll down to "Batted Ball": http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...03&position=OF

He doesn't have the profile of a guy that sustains a super high BABIP. He hits too many FBs, and far too many IFFBs to sustain a BABIP over about .320.

Look at Jeter's batted ball profile...that's what is needed to sustain a BABIP over .340.

Acuna is getting lucky, just like CJ did when he batted .321 and won a batting title. He is unlikely to get lucky at the MLB level over an extended period of time. He will settle in around .300-.320 just like everyone else, and when he does, he won't be within shouting distance of the 1.000 OPS he is posting in AAA...more like low .700s in 2018.

Ok, sorry, thewupk said we didn't have a way of measuring that for minor leaguers.

And Jeter is not the only guy you can look at. Check out Freeman's batted ball profile. He has far higher FB rates than Jeter, yet he also sustains a very high BABIP. Acuna seems to have progressed to the kind of LD rate you want, and his IFFB rate has come down significantly while his HR/FB rate has jumped.

Go check out Trout's batted ball profile in the minors. You would look at that and say he just got stupid lucky in the minors. Yet he continued to post extremely high BABIP numbers in the majors while his batted ball profile improved. But he still posts a high FB rate.

[smootness]

This is why Acuna is not #1:

Philbert
10:28 Of everyone with at least 50 PA at A+ in their age-18 season between 2006 and 2016, the best wRC+ is 117. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently at 174 in 173 plate appearances.

Jeff Sullivan
10:28 A teenager with power, and more walks than strikeouts. He's an absurdity

I love Vlad Jr. and listed him as one of 2 guys I would be ok with having ahead of Acuna at this point. But no one has him listed at #1, and I'm not sure how many have him ahead of Acuna. So when you say this is why Acuna isn't #1, what do you mean? On your list?

[smootness]

LOL, yes, you predicted his MLB BABIP will be .340.

That is clv level stupid.

K.

[thewupk]

Most likely though Acuna will be viewed as a disappointment. Due to the haze of high expectations.

Andruw effect. When acuna isn't trout people will think he is lazy and doesn't like baseball.