AcuñaMania

[Tapate50]

sorry to pick on you...my message applies to all the children around here

The Enscheff way of talking to people is contagious it seems. How sad.

[nsacpi]

Andruw effect. When acuna isn't trout people will think he is lazy and doesn't like baseball.

Yeah. Whenever people get really high on a player it seems to lead to outcomes like that. It is an old fashioned view, but I would just say no to getting high like that.

[nsacpi]

The Enscheff way of talking to people is contagious it seems. How sad.

but i love all my children

[cajunrevenge]

Anyone else really upset we didnt sign Vlad Jr? I love second generation prospects. I know I wanted him at the time but I want just about every prospect that only costs money.

[smootness]

Anyone else really upset we didnt sign Vlad Jr? I love second generation prospects. I know I wanted him at the time but I want just about every prospect that only costs money.

It would have taken us over the limit that year, right? So we wouldn't have been able to sign all the guys we signed this year if we had.

[Super]

It would have taken us over the limit that year, right? So we wouldn't have been able to sign all the guys we signed this year if we had.

I mean, in hindsight you do it. But at the time?

[smootness]

I mean, in hindsight you do it. But at the time?

Yeah, but Guerrero wasn't considered at the same level as Maitan, and we had planned everything around going nuts in 2016. So that's why we wouldn't have ever been in the mix for Vlad Jr.

[Super]

Yeah, but Guerrero wasn't considered at the same level as Maitan, and we had planned everything around going nuts in 2016. So that's why we wouldn't have ever been in the mix for Vlad Jr.

Yeah that's what I'm getting at.

[cajunrevenge]

Pretty sure this was before we knew anything about Maitan. He signed for 3.9 million so you have to assume atleast 4 mill to sign him if not more. Might have been able to get him and no one else and only get 1 penalty year. So we wouldnt have any of the prospects from the Cruz/Pache signing class.

[Enscheff]

Ok, sorry, thewupk said we didn't have a way of measuring that for minor leaguers.

And Jeter is not the only guy you can look at. Check out Freeman's batted ball profile. He has far higher FB rates than Jeter, yet he also sustains a very high BABIP. Acuna seems to have progressed to the kind of LD rate you want, and his IFFB rate has come down significantly while his HR/FB rate has jumped.

Go check out Trout's batted ball profile in the minors. You would look at that and say he just got stupid lucky in the minors. Yet he continued to post extremely high BABIP numbers in the majors while his batted ball profile improved. But he still posts a high FB rate.

Great, let's check out Freeman's batted ball profile, and try to see how he has sustained that .343 BABIP.

LD/GB/FB: 27/37/36
Pull/Center/Opp: 39/31/30

Now compare that to a similar hitter, Anthony Rizzo, who has a .286 career BABIP.

LD/GB/FB: 21/39/40
Pull/Center/Oppo: 43/35/22

Rizzo's BABIP is 57 points below Freeman's. Why?

About 40 of those points can be attributed to his inferior LD rate. The rest due to the fact he hits more FBs and pull the ball more often than Freeman. None of this is a mystery. It is all well understood.

Now eyeballing Acuna this year in AAA.

LD/GB/FB: 24/44/32
Pull/Center/Oppo: 40/23/36

Whose batted ball profile does that more closely resemble? I'd say it falls right between Rizzo and Freeman, so I'd say his expected BABIP would be right between Freeman's .343 and Rizzo's .286.

Know what the average of those 2 values is? .315

Seems like a good approximation of what Acuna's MLB BABIP is likely to be, and pretty much what I've been citing the entire time this discussion has gone on.

[smootness]

Great, let's check out Freeman's batted ball profile, and try to see how he has sustained that .343 BABIP.

LD/GB/FB: 27/37/36
Pull/Center/Opp: 39/31/30

Now compare that to a similar hitter, Anthony Rizzo, who has a .286 career BABIP.

LD/GB/FB: 21/39/40
Pull/Center/Oppo: 43/35/22

Rizzo's BABIP is 57 points below Freeman's. Why?

About 40 of those points can be attributed to his inferior LD rate. The rest due to the fact he hits more FBs and pull the ball more often than Freeman. None of this is a mystery. It is all well understood.

Now eyeballing Acuna this year in AAA.

LD/GB/FB: 24/44/32
Pull/Center/Oppo: 40/23/36

Whose batted ball profile does that more closely resemble? I'd say it falls right between Rizzo and Freeman, so I'd say his expected BABIP would be right between Freeman's .343 and Rizzo's .286.

Know what the average of those 2 values is? .315

Seems like a good approximation of what Acuna's MLB BABIP is likely to be, and pretty much what I've been citing the entire time this discussion has gone on.

That's a good post and some good info. We'll just have to wait and see.

[jimsnores]

It was not - .328. His career BA was 16 points higher than his career BABIP. BABIP is not a junk stat.

I would think an average that much higher than BABIP would be really rare today. It would require a lot of power and a low strikeout rate, would it not? Williams and the Yankee Clipper both had that going on.

[auyushu]

Pretty sure this was before we knew anything about Maitan. He signed for 3.9 million so you have to assume atleast 4 mill to sign him if not more. Might have been able to get him and no one else and only get 1 penalty year. So we wouldnt have any of the prospects from the Cruz/Pache signing class.

Keith Law had Maitan as a done deal to the Braves before we even signed Pache and Cruz, we definitely knew about Maitan before then. Maitan was getting showcased by his trainer when he was 13.

For reference:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/inter...reat-prospect/

[smootness]

I would think an average that much higher than BABIP would be really rare today. It would require a lot of power and a low strikeout rate, would it not? Williams and the Yankee Clipper both had that going on.

It's pretty rare now with the level of K's. And yes, it does require a lot of power without many K's. Pujols has a higher career BA than BABIP, and Cabrera came close to even a couple times.

[Enscheff]

I would think an average that much higher than BABIP would be really rare today. It would require a lot of power and a low strikeout rate, would it not? Williams and the Yankee Clipper both had that going on.

I think it would require a player to have about half as many HRs as Ks or better to have a BA higher than their BABIP.

30/100 = .300 BA

4 HRs and 10 Ks = 26/86 = .302 BABIP

5 HRs and 10 Ks = 25/85 = .294 BABIP

The algebra isn't perfect, but I think it's a pretty good rule of thumb.

[smootness]

I think it would require a player to have about half as many HRs as Ks or better to have a BA higher than their BABIP.

30/100 = .300 BA

4 HRs and 10 Ks = 26/86 = .302 BABIP

5 HRs and 10 Ks = 25/85 = .294 BABIP

The algebra isn't perfect, but I think it's a pretty good rule of thumb.

Yep, that's about right. A lot of SFs help, too.

[UNCBlue012]

After going 1-4 in the first game of the double header, Acuna is 2-3 in the second game with a 2-RBI double. So, 3-7 so far today lol

[chipchildress]

acuna has played one game in august in which he didn't record a base hit.

[Southcack77]

You never do. All you do is post contrarian comments without ever contributing a single original thought of your own.

You are accusing someone else of being a contrarian?

Ha.

[jimsnores]

acuna has played one game in august in which he didn't record a base hit.

Cut the slackard!