Gray for Dustin Fowler, Jorge Mateo and James Kaprielian
Gray with a calculated surplus value of $60M-$65M.
Preseason, Fowler (FV 50, $20M), Mateo (FV 50, $20M) and Kap (FV 55, $22M) totaled $62M.
Based on preseason values, this trade is almost spot on from a surplus value standpoint. Of course, a lot has happened since the preseason...Fowler's knee and Kap's elbow both exploded.
How much does those injuries hurt the value of those player's? Hard to calculate, but we know the A's tend to over value guys who are nearly MLB-ready. It's stands to reason the A's but a premium on being MLB-ready that almosat equals the discount applied to guys being injured, resulting in a wash value-wise.
Darvish for Willie Calhoun, A.J. Alexy and Brendon Davis
Darvish with a calculated surplus value of ~$25M.
Calhoun (FV 50, $20M) plus the 2 filler guys total $25M+.
Based on surplus values, this trade is almost exactly spot on.
Calhoun was a guy many people were saying has no defensive position at the MLB level...basically a mini-Schwarber. The Dodgers were wise to trade him to the AL rather than do what the Cubs did with Schwarber, who has now lost the majority of his trade value.
Avila and Wilson for Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes
Avila is projected to produce ~0.5 wins or less in a backup role at a cost of $700k, and has a surplus value in the range of $5M-$10M.
Wilson is projected to produce about 1 win this year at a cost of $900k, for a surplus value of ~$19M. Assuming he is a 1-1.5 WAR guy next year, and earns a final arb salary of $5M, he has a 2018 surplus value of $5M-$10M. Total surplus value of $24M-$29M.
Total surplus value of Avila and Wilson is in the range of $30M+.
Candelario (FV 50, $20M) and Paredes (FV 40, ~$5M), plus a cash or a PTBNL totals ~$25M+ (depending on thePTBNL or cash amount).
Based on surplus value, this trade appears to be almost perfectly even.
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