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Thread: Analyzing Lucas Sims

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    Analyzing Lucas Sims

    This post will be updated tomorrow after the Statcast data is available for his first MLB start. Before that data is available, here is the scouting report summation from Talkingchop: https://www.talkingchop.com/2017/7/3...r-league-debut

    FA that sits 91-92 (I've seen reports of better velo though) with little movement (a flat FA is consistent in scouting reports, and is why many have pegged him as a BP arm). An average MLB FA back in 2015 was 91.9-92.4, so it is safe to say Sims' flat FA is below average in 2017 as velocities have increased. He is also missing up with it frequently, which is causing his HR issues. This is not a good sign against the Dodgers in SunTrust park.

    CU that is supposedly plus. This has been a consistent assessment in all scouting reports.

    CH that is rarely used and flashes average. This lack of a 3rd pitch is another reason why he is considered a BP piece.

    Overall, I expect to see a 45 FA (mainly due to being flat), a 60 CU (think a slightly worse version of Newk's 65 CU from the opposite side), and a 40 CH that is rarely used (just like Newk). Sims is basically a RHed Newk with a little better control, a couple ticks less on the FA, and a slightly lesser CU. His best chance for success will be to get ahead with the FA early, and use the CU to get outs. When the Dodgers start to be aggressive early in the count against the FA (which might happen right away), Sims will need to be able to use the CU early to get ahead.

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    I haven't watched Sims since very early on. I want to say that his Fastball was moving though. Good cut to the right hander (i know that is not a cutter). I don't recall ever seeing a speed rating though. I wonder if his 2 seamer has developed and is what is being read as ~92.. if he can hit a 4 seamer in the 95 range, then that with his good Curve could produce good results.. if his command is there.
    Coppy

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    After watching 3 innings from Sims, the scouting report looks accurate.

    I'm seeing a low 90s FA, a CU that doesn't look much above average, something like a cutter at 88, and a CH that he used against a RHer.

    Overall, his stuff appears to be a notch below Maeda's.

    Will be interesting to see what Statcast says tomorrow.

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    Statcast data is out, and it matches pretty well with the scouting reports and the eye test from last night.

    He had 5 different pitches according to the radar: SI, FA, CU, CH, SL.

    SI (29%): 91.9 MPH, -9.6 xMov, 6.2 zMov
    FA (18%): 91.3 MPH, -4.8 xMov, 9.0 zMov
    CU (18%): 75.9 MPH, 7.1 xMov, -5.1 zMov
    CH (17%): 83.2 MPH, -11.1 xMov, 1.1 zMov
    SL (16%): 86.3 MPH, 0.7 xMov, 2.8 zMov

    Right away, just the presence of 5 pitches is encouraging. But, how good are they?

    SI: Average velo, above average horizontal movement, below average sink. This is more accurately described as a two-seamer in movement, but a sinker in velo. I don't think this is a good pitch, but is clearly his best fastball variant...must be why he used it 2x more than the 4 seamer.

    FA: Below average velo, average movement. This is also a below average pitch.

    CU: Below average velo, more of a sweeper than a downward hammer with above average horizontal movement and below average drop. This pitch is not plus, but is at least average.

    CH: Acceptable velo delta from FA/SI, very good fade and sink. This is a good pitch. I'm not sure where the bad reports on his CH come from, so unless he telegraphs it or leaves it in bad locations, this pitch should generate a lot of grounders.

    SL: Good velo, below average movement. I don't think this is a good pitch.

    So, in summation, Sims has a usable SI, a CU that is at least average, and the physics of a plus CH. Seems to me he needs to ditch the 4 seamer and the slider, and get to work perfecting his 3 usable pitches and their sequencing/location.

    Sims seems like a back-end guy to me who will not be able to stick in the rotation at all when his velo starts to deteriorate any further. Use him up for a few years, and ship him out.

  5. The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to Enscheff For This Useful Post:

    4maddux_cy's (08-09-2017),jpx7 (08-02-2017),Managuarantano's Volunteers (08-02-2017),nsacpi (08-03-2017),sturg33 (08-04-2017)

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    Thanks for the pitch analysis Enscheff. Was wondering what Statcast would suggest

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