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    Cost of Promoting Albies Now

    Despite many folks claiming the Braves would not continue rushing prospects to the MLB level, the Braves are predictably promoting Albies tonight. Let's take a look at what this will cost the Braves in terms of future control and surplus value (the currency MLB players are valued with).

    Albies is a potential star-level player, even better than Swanson. Davenport projects him to produce as follows from 2017-2022:

    2017 (20): .269 .329 .392 (.721 OPS), 2.6 WAR (0.8-0.9 WAR rest of season)
    2018 (21): .280 .340 .404 (.744 OPS), 26 SBs, 3.2 WAR
    2019 (22): .283 .344 .408 (.752 OPS), 27 SBs, 3.5 WAR
    2020 (23): .287 .351 .424 (.775 OPS), 25 SBs, 3.9 WAR
    2021 (24): .288 .358 .428 (.786 OPS), 25 SBs, 4.2 WAR
    2022 (25): .289 .355 .429 (.784 OPS), 23 SBs, 4.0 WAR

    We can safely project another couple ~4 WAR seasons in 2023/2024 when Albies is 26/27 years old and entering his peak years. His speed and defense will begin to decline at that age, but power tends to tick up to compensate.

    Promoting him now gives the Braves the following years of control and projected salaries (based off Dee Gordon's figures plus inflation):

    2017 (pre-arb): $0.2M
    2018 (pre-arb): $0.5M
    2019 (pre-arb): $0.5M
    2020 (pre-arb): $0.5M
    2021 (arb 1): $3M
    2022 (arb 2): $5M
    2023 (arb 3): $9M

    Total: $18.7M
    WAR produced: 23.7
    Surplus value: $218.3M

    Waiting until 2 weeks into 2018 gives the Braves control of Albies through 2024, but he will be a Super 2 player. His projected salaries then become:

    2018 (pre-arb): $0.5M
    2019 (pre-arb): $0.5M
    2020 (pre-arb): $0.5M
    2021 (arb 1): $2M
    2022 (arb 2): $4M
    2023 (arb 3): $8M
    2024 (arb 4): $12M

    Total: $27.5M
    WAR produced: 26.8
    Surplus value: $240.5M

    Promoting Albies now is costing the Braves ~$22M in surplus value ($240.5M-$218.3M). Taking into account the worst possible errors in the projected salaries could drop the wasted value to the ~$20M range.

    But wait, what if they extend him? Extending him can happen in either scenario, and will provide the exact same amount of surplus value depending on the price they pay for the additional FA years. The ability to extend him in no way affects the surplus value calculation of this decision.

    This move gains the Braves 2 months of Albies' production this season when the Braves are on pace to win 75 games, plus 2 weeks of his production in 2018, at the cost of $20M+ in surplus value. We have seen the Braves make the same decision with Swanson they are currently making with Albies, and it shouldn't be surprising when they do the same thing with Acuna.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 08-01-2017 at 03:26 PM.

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