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    Cost of Promoting Albies Now

    Despite many folks claiming the Braves would not continue rushing prospects to the MLB level, the Braves are predictably promoting Albies tonight. Let's take a look at what this will cost the Braves in terms of future control and surplus value (the currency MLB players are valued with).

    Albies is a potential star-level player, even better than Swanson. Davenport projects him to produce as follows from 2017-2022:

    2017 (20): .269 .329 .392 (.721 OPS), 2.6 WAR (0.8-0.9 WAR rest of season)
    2018 (21): .280 .340 .404 (.744 OPS), 26 SBs, 3.2 WAR
    2019 (22): .283 .344 .408 (.752 OPS), 27 SBs, 3.5 WAR
    2020 (23): .287 .351 .424 (.775 OPS), 25 SBs, 3.9 WAR
    2021 (24): .288 .358 .428 (.786 OPS), 25 SBs, 4.2 WAR
    2022 (25): .289 .355 .429 (.784 OPS), 23 SBs, 4.0 WAR

    We can safely project another couple ~4 WAR seasons in 2023/2024 when Albies is 26/27 years old and entering his peak years. His speed and defense will begin to decline at that age, but power tends to tick up to compensate.

    Promoting him now gives the Braves the following years of control and projected salaries (based off Dee Gordon's figures plus inflation):

    2017 (pre-arb): $0.2M
    2018 (pre-arb): $0.5M
    2019 (pre-arb): $0.5M
    2020 (pre-arb): $0.5M
    2021 (arb 1): $3M
    2022 (arb 2): $5M
    2023 (arb 3): $9M

    Total: $18.7M
    WAR produced: 23.7
    Surplus value: $218.3M

    Waiting until 2 weeks into 2018 gives the Braves control of Albies through 2024, but he will be a Super 2 player. His projected salaries then become:

    2018 (pre-arb): $0.5M
    2019 (pre-arb): $0.5M
    2020 (pre-arb): $0.5M
    2021 (arb 1): $2M
    2022 (arb 2): $4M
    2023 (arb 3): $8M
    2024 (arb 4): $12M

    Total: $27.5M
    WAR produced: 26.8
    Surplus value: $240.5M

    Promoting Albies now is costing the Braves ~$22M in surplus value ($240.5M-$218.3M). Taking into account the worst possible errors in the projected salaries could drop the wasted value to the ~$20M range.

    But wait, what if they extend him? Extending him can happen in either scenario, and will provide the exact same amount of surplus value depending on the price they pay for the additional FA years. The ability to extend him in no way affects the surplus value calculation of this decision.

    This move gains the Braves 2 months of Albies' production this season when the Braves are on pace to win 75 games, plus 2 weeks of his production in 2018, at the cost of $20M+ in surplus value. We have seen the Braves make the same decision with Swanson they are currently making with Albies, and it shouldn't be surprising when they do the same thing with Acuna.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 08-01-2017 at 03:26 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post

    This move gains the Braves 2 months of Albies' production this season when the Braves are on pace to win 75 games, plus 2 weeks of his production in 2018, at the cost of $20M+ in surplus value. We have seen the Braves make the same decision with Swanson they are currently making with Albies, and it shouldn't be surprising when they do the same thing with Acuna.
    We were told by some this wouldn't happen. It's obviously happening and going to continue to happen. Braves on pace to win 74 games now.

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    gold standard franchise
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    gold standard franchise
    the best

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    Enscheff, can you tell me what front office GMs promote all their top prospects using the service time loophole?
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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    Enscheff, can you tell me what front office GMs promote all their top prospects using the service time loophole?
    Cubs, Rays are a couple who come to mind who have used it. The Astros in 2014 with George Spinger.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    Enscheff, can you tell me what front office GMs promote all their top prospects using the service time loophole?
    I'm not asking the Braves to promote all top prospects using service time loopholes. I'm asking them to promote players when it makes sense, taking into account service time (something they have openly stated they do not do). Trying to generate excitement because the FO failed to do anything during the trade deadline is not a good enough reason to waste $20M in surplus value.

    It made no sense to promote Albies now with BP producing adequately at 2B and the Braves out of contention. In this case, it makes all the sense in the world to promote Albies a couple weeks into next year, and gain the extra $20M in surplus value.

    It made no sense to promote Swanson on Aug 17 last year when he was posting mediocre numbers in AA, and the Braves were once again out of contention. Again, it would have made all the sense in the world to keep Swanson in AA for all of 2017, start him in AAA this year, then call him up as soon as a spot opened up.

    I'm assuming they are going to do the same thing with Acuna.

    Making this mistake once in a while is fine. Having Heyward on the opening day roster in 2011 was defensible because they were playoff contenders and needed every win they could get. They did the same thing with Freeman, but they were in contention then.

    Consistently making this same mistake is not fine. It shows a systemic misunderstanding of player value. It should be concerning to every fan.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 08-02-2017 at 10:51 AM.

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    Just for personal clarification, why are the Braves paying Albies one million less in scenario 2 for each of 2021, 2022, and 2023?

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    Answer...
    A **** ton of money

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Answer...
    A **** ton of money
    Yeah I was thinking of responding to this again. Could be substantial. One last FU by the previous FO.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Answer...
    A **** ton of money
    I was regularly told that the FO got paid to do this, knew what they were doing, and certainly knew more than me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I was regularly told that the FO got paid to do this, knew what they were doing, and certainly knew more than me.
    one of those was correct

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