Newcomb

[nsacpi]

In 11 AAA starts and 10 major league starts we see the following:

Walk rate of 5.2 per nine innings in AAA and 5.5 in the majors

Strikeout rate of 11.6 in AAA and 9.4 in the majors

HR/fly ball rate of 6.7% in AAA and 11.5% in the majors

His major league numbers are pretty much in line with his AAA numbers once you make the standard adjustment.

BABIP of .304 in AAA and .303 in the majors. Luck has not been a factor in his performance at either level.

Strand rate of 75% in AAA and 74% in the majors. Sequencing luck or "clutchness" has not been a factor either.

He has about a 40% chance imo of developing into an effective major league starter. Folty is often held up as an example of what he could be. Folty has made good progress this year, but he isn't "there" yet. He is on track for less than 2 WAR this year. I think we need a rotation of 2 WAR pitchers with one or two at 3 WAR or better.

[Preacher]

FO must be patient with Newk.

I like what I've seen.

[Deester11]

FO must be patient with Newk.

I like what I've seen.

Exactly.

[bravesfanMatt]

FO must be patient with Newk.

I like what I've seen.

Snit and FO...

[sturg33]

In 11 AAA starts and 10 major league starts we see the following:

Walk rate of 5.2 per nine innings in AAA and 5.5 in the majors

Strikeout rate of 11.6 in AAA and 9.4 in the majors

HR/fly ball rate of 6.7% in AAA and 11.5% in the majors

His major league numbers are pretty much in line with his AAA numbers once you make the standard adjustment.

BABIP of .304 in AAA and .303 in the majors. Luck has not been a factor in his performance at either level.

Strand rate of 75% in AAA and 74% in the majors. Sequencing luck or "clutchness" has not been a factor either.

He has about a 40% chance imo of developing into an effective major league starter. Folty is often held up as an example of what he could be. Folty has made good progress this year, but he isn't "there" yet. He is on track for less than 2 WAR this year. I think we need a rotation of 2 WAR pitchers with one or two at 3 WAR or better.

Yeah - the underlying numbers of Folty show a much less rosy picture

[Southcack77]

Yeah - the underlying numbers of Folty show a much less rosy picture

With Folty it is the periods where he seems to have it that give one hope and it seems like there are more of those periods then there were before.

He's struggled since he had that 7 or 8 start run where he looked like he was about to break out. The break out could still be there. I think he has demonstrated more than anyone the ability to get there, but its going to be on him to do it.

[Eyeman]

Newk's issues definitely seem mental to me. Same with Folty. That issue the announcers mentioned where Newk nearly always goes 2-0 if he goes 1-0 is very prominent. Hopefully we have some of the best pitching coaches around to fix as many as possible of our semi defective prospects. I had the impression Sims had similar issues due to his minor league walk issues, but after watching him he seemed the exact opposite, maybe not good enough stuff, but he seemed very mentally tough.

[blueagleace1]

Newcomb's misses are almost always to the arm side, which tells me he has the tendency of cutting himself off which is a very common problem with young pitchers and pitchers who generally speaking don't have many innings under their belt. I would imagine this is why Flowers called more changeups last night, trying to get him to carry his upper body more and get more "on top" of his pitches. If this is the case, he should be able to fix his problem with more innings and learning to make his adjustments.