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Thread: Newcomb after 10 starts

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    Newcomb after 10 starts

    After Newcomb's first start, I analyzed his stuff according to Statcast and came to this conclusion:

    In conclusion, Newk looked to have a ~60 4 seamer with average velo and good movement. His curve is a good above average downer, but sometimes he lets it flatten out and leaves it up in the zone. His change appears to be almost nonexistent. He needs to work on command, specifically keeping the FA away from belt high. He also needs to work on staying on top of that curve to avoid having it flatten out, staying up, and getting hammered. Lastly, that change needs to be more of a weapon than something he throws twice a game if he wants to consistently make it through an MLB lineup stacked with RHed hitters 3x or more.

    We all know his command hasn't improved, and it has actually gotten worse as far as the BB rate is concerned. It is still solidly a 40 or worse.

    But what about his repertoire?

    Here are his season numbers for his pitches:

    FA (613): 93.2, 4.9x, 10.7z
    CU (221): 77.9, -5.6x, -6.8z
    SL (76): 80.9, -7.0x, -1.3z
    CH (72): 85.0, 8.2x, 7.5z

    The FA is still a 60 pitch, featuring above average velocity for a LHer, and above average movement.

    The CU is still a 60+ pitch, featuring above average movement, and at least average velocity. It couples with the FA to form a solid 2 pitch base.

    The SL, which I wasn't sure was actually a slider or a flat CU, has seemingly been relegated to his 4th pitch. He threw it 4 times against the Dodgers last night, and 8 times vs the Phils on 7/29. He is either getting better at staying on top of his CU, or he is using the SL less...either way it's a good thing until he refines command of his more important pitches.

    The CH features a decent velo delta from his FA (8.2 mph, average for MLB LHers is ~9), and it is a little flatter than MLB average for LHers. It is also a bit below average in horizontal movement (8.2 vs 8.9), but that movement away from RHers is what he needs.

    He has replaced most of his SL usage over the last 2 games with his CH vs RHed hitters. In his first 4 starts, he threw the CH about 2% of the time. In his next 4 starts he threw it a bit more. He threw the CH at least 16.4% of the time vs the Dodgers last night, and 18.8% of the time against the Phils on 7/29.

    This increase in CH usage is the most encouraging development over Newk's first 10 starts, which is why I bolded that sentence in my earlier conclusion. His CH generates the highest swing strike percentage of all his pitches at 20.8%. It is vital that he fine tunes that pitch, improves his location with it, and is able to rely on it vs RHers.

    So yes, Newk obviously needs to work on his command, but the foundation of a plus FA/CU combo and a usable CH gives him that #3 SP upside that consistently produces 3 WAR seasons. Keep working on the CH, keep working on the command, and don't get hurt.

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    Newcomb and Sims will both be given a fairly long look the rest of this season. Newcomb has the higher ceiling. But I'm not optimistic about either of them making it as a starter. Newcomb is 24 and this is his 4th professional season. Yes, he started behind coming from New England and pitching for a college that didn't have a prominent baseball program. But the cold weather thing has not prevented some of our other pitching prospects (Avery to Soroka) from being very advanced for their ages. Newcomb has a great arm, but may never acquire the polish and pitching instincts needed to be a starter. I do think he could be a very good reliever. If he moves to the pen he can rely more on the fastball, which would likely tick up in velocity if he only has to go an inning or so.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 08-05-2017 at 09:33 AM.
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    I don't think Sims has the stuff to be anything more than a 6th starter swing man type. Most likely he is a AAAA guy for a couple years until his stuff declines to the point he can't even be that.

    Newk is the kind of "stuff" guy that will get tons of chances to "figure it out". He will K enough guys that he can be a 4/5 SP while everyone keeps waiting for him to break out. Those guys tend to get higher returns in trades from teams trying to get a bargain, so that might end up being the best way to maximize his value to the organization.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I don't think Sims has the stuff to be anything more than a 6th starter swing man type. Most likely he is a AAAA guy for a couple years until his stuff declines to the point he can't even be that.

    Newk is the kind of "stuff" guy that will get tons of chances to "figure it out". He will K enough guys that he can be a 4/5 SP while everyone keeps waiting for him to break out. Those guys tend to get higher returns in trades from teams trying to get a bargain, so that might end up being the best way to maximize his value to the organization.
    I agree with the trade aspect. If we are looking to upgrade this offseason, Newk can finish a little stronger, and some team values his projection, he could possibly be a centerpiece to a trade. I'd definitely trade him over Gohara/Wright/or selling low on Fried.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Newcomb and Sims will both be given a fairly long look the rest of this season. Newcomb has the higher ceiling. But I'm not optimistic about either of them making it as a starter. Newcomb is 24 and this is his 4th professional season. Yes, he started behind coming from New England and pitching for a college that didn't have a prominent baseball program. But the cold weather thing has not prevented some of our other pitching prospects (Avery to Soroka) from being very advanced for their ages. Newcomb has a great arm, but may never acquire the polish and pitching instincts needed to be a starter. I do think he could be a very good reliever. If he moves to the pen he can rely more on the fastball, which would likely tick up in velocity if he only has to go an inning or so.
    Sometimes a mechanical flaw masquerades as "a lack of pitching instincts." I think if he gains command of his fastball, which may be a function of a mechanical problem, he could make a big leap. I think he is intelligent. I just think he doesn't always finish that pitch.

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    Newk has done much better than I thought he would. I think he just needs slightly better control to be a mid rotation starter. Unless he pulls a Swanson next year he should get a full year in the rotation. 2019 seems like a good time for him to break out. By that point he should have 1.5 years worth of starts in the majors.
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