Extent Freddie

[clvclv]

Maybe some of our more numbers-savvy friends can tell us just exactly what the expected return on a Freddie extension would look like, but I wonder if it wouldn't be a great idea to go to his people and see if we can't tack on three more years to his existing deal to (more-or-less) make him a Brave for life and head off any potentially touchy future negotiations. Offering him another $75 million would be a nice "thank you" and a little bit of a raise, but it would still be below market value AND would also only carry him through his age-34 season. If he's still productive and wants to play beyond that, then you could go year-to-year with him like Boston did Big Papi.

[nsacpi]

Any extension starts with his age 32 season. I would project his production beyond age 32 as follows:

32-34 4 WAR/year
35-37 2.5
38-40 1

The going rate is about 8M/win.

That gives an idea of what a fair market extension would look like for those years. I presume the team would be looking for a significant discount over fair market value.

[Heyward]

Probably would cost something like 3 years, 80 million or so.

[nsacpi]

Probably would cost something like 3 years, 80 million or so.

market value for his ages 32-34 seasons would be around 32M/year or 96M total. 80M is a discount they club should probably be happy with.

[TheBravos]

Probably be smarter to let him go or trade him before the contract ends. Bigger money in declining years...no thanks.

[clvclv]

market value for his ages 32-34 seasons would be around 32M/year or 96M total. 80M is a discount they club should probably be happy with.

Right in the range I was guessing at, and something I'd personally already be talking to Freeman and his people about. Then see what happens after 2024 - he'll already be so entrenched in the area at that point that he's not going to be interested in leaving for more money as long as each one-year offer after that isn't publicly insulting.

[clvclv]

Probably be smarter to let him go or trade him before the contract ends. Bigger money in declining years...no thanks.

Where are the "big money decline" years?

If he's still putting up 4 WAR seasons for those three years, you're still getting him for below market value.

[auyushu]

Where are the "big money decline" years?

If he's still putting up 4 WAR seasons for those three years, you're still getting him for below market value.

And if he falls off once he hits his early 30s like many players do then you are paying big money for nothing. Really zero reason to extend a player you already have under control for 4 more seasons.

[nsacpi]

And if he falls off once he hits his early 30s like many players do then you are paying big money for nothing. Really zero reason to extend a player you already have under control for 4 more seasons.

For the right price I'd do it.

[JxnMissFan]

I hope Freddie is a Brave for life but I would wait a year before talking about an extension. If the rebuild looks like a failure a year from now trading Freddie could bring in a big talent haul. Is there even a trade to comp what Freddie would bring back. (Young, great hitter sign to a fair contract)

[TheBravos]

Where are the "big money decline" years?

If he's still putting up 4 WAR seasons for those three years, you're still getting him for below market value.

I'm sure all bad contracts begin with a similar statement. The older a player gets (no matter how great the player), the more likely they are to decline or get hurt.

[Carp]

Signed for 4 more years. This doesn't really need addressed until 2019. Not a smart move to commit a good chunk of money to a 30+ year old 1b.

I will say however, that Freddie seems like he will age well offensively. He has a great hit tool that should still serve him well even when he loses power/bat speed.

[clvclv]

And if he falls off once he hits his early 30s like many players do then you are paying big money for nothing. Really zero reason to extend a player you already have under control for 4 more seasons.

Joey Votto's 33 now, still owed $171 million and is on their books through the same point in time (2024). A 3 year $80 million extension would mean the Braves would owe him $166 million, and he'd be off the books when by the time he turns 35.

I'm certainly not a "numbers guy" (which is why I mentioned having them try the calculations), but I'd imagine Freeman will come closer to earning his money in those last three years than Votto, Harper, or Machado will during the last three years of their deals - particularly when you consider Harper and Machado will be getting ~$40 million a year.

[Enscheff]

Extending guys that play 1B into their mid-30s almost never works out. Further, why would Freeman do that when he can get a 5-6 year deal after his current contract expires? Does anyone really think he is desperate for 3 more years after already making a small fortune?

I think I'd be inclined to let someone else pay for Freeeman's decline years.

But yes, if Freeman somehow agrees to take 50% of the money available to him once he becomes a FA to sign a 3/80 deal with the Braves...easy choice to make for the Braves.

[Enscheff]

And if he falls off once he hits his early 30s like many players do then you are paying big money for nothing. Really zero reason to extend a player you already have under control for 4 more seasons.

No player that has made $100m+ is going to sign an extension that takes him to age 35. Elite Players like Freeman don't sign for 3 years at a time.

This suggestion is completely unrealistic.

If the Braves want to extend Freeman and make him a Braves for life they are going to have to come to the table with a 6+ year extension for $150m-$200m in additional money.

Some AL team is much more likely to offer a deal like that.

[The Chosen One]

I would like to see Freddie become a lifer like Chipper. I was upset when Heyward left because I wanted Hey to be that guy. But Freddie has stepped up bigly since the rest of the core was traded off. I would like to keep him here til he calls it quits just because of loyalty. And I hope he would be comfortable enough to give a discount like Chip did.

[cajunrevenge]

I agree. We should let Chipper go. Dont want to be paying him big bucks in his mid to late 30's.

[Southcack77]

I would definitely wait at least two years to consider extending Freeman. The Braves don't know whether his prime will be long or short and they don't know whether his decline will be slow or precipitous.

Hell they don't even know now if he is actually going to be one of the best players in baseball. He's put up two half seasons suggesting he might be, but that's about it.

I'd wait to see how things developed and then I would think about the internal options available to replace him. All that has to be part of it.

I do think there is value for having a face of the franchise, but it's something you need to be careful with. It can all fall apart very quickly.

[auyushu]

Joey Votto's 33 now, still owed $171 million and is on their books through the same point in time (2024). A 3 year $80 million extension would mean the Braves would owe him $166 million, and he'd be off the books when by the time he turns 35.

I'm certainly not a "numbers guy" (which is why I mentioned having them try the calculations), but I'd imagine Freeman will come closer to earning his money in those last three years than Votto, Harper, or Machado will during the last three years of their deals - particularly when you consider Harper and Machado will be getting ~$40 million a year.

Bringing up one terrible deal doesn't make doing so for Freddie less of a bad idea. I'm against long term deals for any player going into their 30s, they pretty much never work out for the teams that give them.

I'm not against extending Freddie when his contract is either up or almost up, but extending him now is a poor decision for two reasons. One is that you have no idea if he will be worth that kind of money once he is 32+, and the other is that you are signing him to an extension at his absolute peak value if you do it right now, so it will cost more money, and likely more years.

[NinersSBChamps]

And what incentive is there for him to stick around? No chance of ever competing for anything and why would he want to take a discount in the process? I know most athletes don't care about winning, but baseball contracts are guaranteed so he's getting paid regardless. Might as well be on a winning team.