Let's be real about Newcomb

[Enscheff]

According to BRef's player index, there have been 11 pitchers since 1997 to start at least 10 games in their first MLB season and walk more than 5 per 9 at the age of 24 or older. Here they are in alphabetical order alongside their career and peak season bWAR:

Micah Bowie (negative)
Octavio Dotel (15.7, 4.2)
Ryan Glynn (negative)
Angel Guzman (1.4, 1,7)
Joel Hanrahan (4.3, 2.5)
Aaron Harang (23.5, 6.0)
Aaron Heilman (2.1, 2.2)
Kazuhisa Ishii (0.2, 0.7)
Justin Miller (1.4, 1.1)
Sean Newcomb (NA)
Blake Stein (2.8, 1.6)

So if the past is any indication, Newk has a...

10% chance of being Harang (a pretty damn good starter for a 3 year stretch in his age 27-29 seasons)

10% chance of being Dotel (a legit high leverage BP arm)

80% chance of being Justin Miller (basically a bust)

I think Newk probably has a better than 20% chance of a solid MLB career, but I also think it's instructive to take a look at exactly how poorly pitchers this old with this bad of control actually fair. It's also interesting to see just how few guys are allowed to start 10+ games with such poor command.

[Enscheff]

And if we add in a K/9 of 8+, and extend back to 1913, we get the following list of 4 pitchers:

Kaz Ishii
Octavio Dotel
Ed Connolly (negative)
Angel Guzman

Newk as a LHed Octavio Dotel is looking more and more like the best positive comp I can find. Kaz Ishii is the only modern LHer that comps to what Newk is currently doing, but he was a much older foreign import.

It's also interesting to see just how few guys are allowed to start 10+ games with such poor command, even if they K a lot of guys.

[blueagleace1]

The concern I have is it doesn't seem to be a mechanical issue (from my eyes)

[thewupk]

The problem is nobody wants to be real on Newk.

[msstate7]

I have no idea if Newcomb will make it or not, but I'm certainly not giving up on him yet. You used bWAR, so I find this interesting... the great folty in your eyes has a career bWAR of 0.6 in 59 starts (352.1 ip); Newcomb has a bWAR of 0.4 in 11 starts (58.2 ip). If we can be this patient with worse results from folty, surely we can be patient for better results from Newcomb

Newcomb FIP is 4.28
K/9 is 9.36
BAA is .239 with BABIP of .302

[msstate7]

It'd be interesting to see that list with BAA, k/9, and whip. I'd bet Newcomb looks much more like dotel and Harang if those stats were included

[nsacpi]

I'll throw out Jonathan Sanchez as a lefty who is an interesting comp. Was promoted to the majors in his age 23 season. Pitched mostly out of the pen for a couple years. Didn't throw as hard as Newcomb but had very good stuff. Walk rate in his early years was mostly in the 4.5-5.0 range. Career b-war was 3.4. Best season was 3.7 (led the NL in walks that year). That was his only season above 2.

[striker42]

I always put Gio Gonzalez out there as a comp. Both are lefties with excellent stuff. Both strike out a bunch with low HR rates and low BAA. And Gio had really bad control problem early in his career that improved in his late 20's. I'd not be disappointed at all if he became another Gio Gonzalez.

[thewupk]

It'd be interesting to see that list with BAA, k/9, and whip. I'd bet Newcomb looks much more like dotel and Harang if those stats were included

Dotel, yes. If Newk fails as a starter I think he will have a legit chance to become an effective late inning reliever. I've thought that's where he and Sims have the best chances to be effective MLBers.

[jpack1]

Newk will and should get every chance to succeed because of the Ks, low BAA, and low HR rate. But let's be real. If he continues to walk 5/9 he will not succeed. He gets that to 3.5 and he will be very successful. He should basically get all of this year and next to prove one or the other.

[UNCBlue012]

Newk will and should get every chance to succeed because of the Ks, low BAA, and low HR rate. But let's be real. If he continues to walk 5/9 he will not succeed. He gets that to 3.5 and he will be very successful. He should basically get all of this year and next to prove one or the other.

This. He has every thing needed to be a really good MLB pitcher. I hope he gets it together because his upside is incredible.

[CyYoung31]

I really like Newcomb. I would give him every chance to succeed as a starter. If all else fails I feel very good about his chances at being a great late inning/high leverage situation reliever.

[50PoundHead]

Enscheff, thanks for the research, but I'm reluctant to write off anyone after ten starts. The walks have to come down, but he has swing-and-miss stuff so he should get every chance to succeed (or fail) as a starter before we make any further decisions.

[smootness]

Newk will and should get every chance to succeed because of the Ks, low BAA, and low HR rate. But let's be real. If he continues to walk 5/9 he will not succeed. He gets that to 3.5 and he will be very successful. He should basically get all of this year and next to prove one or the other.

Absolutely. I think it's a knock on recent pitching trends that so few guys are allowed to make that many starts with control issues. We're too quick to throw guys into the pen.

I would also be curious to see what happens to that list if you knock the minimum age back a couple years.

[Southcack77]

Enscheff, thanks for the research, but I'm reluctant to write off anyone after ten starts. The walks have to come down, but he has swing-and-miss stuff so he should get every chance to succeed (or fail) as a starter before we make any further decisions.

Yeah, I think the problems with Newcomb are pretty obvious and the odds of his turning around this problem are perhaps not good. No objection to that being pointed out.

But I'm with you in saying that Braves need to give it every opportunity to work out, because they have nothing else really to do at the moment or going forward.

Sometimes players figure things out or I guess get luck over an extended period. Look at what Jimmy Nelson is doing this year after flailing at finding the strike zone last year at 27, three years in. A guy with big minor league walk rates who improved then got worse in the minors and now has improved again. It's not necessarily linear.

[MadduxFanII]

The first stats I can find on Newcomb start in 2013, when he was at Hartford.

That year, he walked 4.63 per nine in 72 IP.

2014, at Hartford, he walked 3.66 per nine in 93 1/3 IP.

After being drafted that year, he threw three innings in rookie league ball, walking 1 (3 BB/9). After being promoted to Burlington in the Midwest League, he walked 3.86 per nine in 11 2/3 IP.

In 2015, he started back at Burlington and walked 4.98 per nine innings in 34 1/3 IP. After being promoted to High-A, he walked 4.52 per nine in 65 2/3 IP. And after being promoted to AA, he walked six per nine in 36 IP.

In 2016, he spent the whole year at AA Mississippi and walked 4.56 per nine in 140 IP.

In 2017, he walked 5.15 per nine at AAA in 57 2/3 IP. Since being promoted to the bigs, he's walked 5.06 per nine in 58 2/3 IP.

So...look. Sean Newcomb walks a lot of guys. It's what he's done literally going back to the first moments in which we have recorded statistics for him. You can offer whatever rationalizations for those you want, construct whatever pleasing narratives seem to make sense around them, and that's fine, that's what fans do, and that's basically harmless, but at a certain point you just have to accept that Newcomb is not just one simple mechanical adjustment or mindset tweak away from firing strikes with regularity. We're long past the point where you have to say that it's far likelier Newcomb will never figure out control than it is that he will.

And I have no problem giving him every possible opportunity - and then some - to beat those odds. He's huge, he's left-handed, he's got big-time stuff and we're not competing for anything. So, yeah, absolutely, give him the rest of this year and next to see if he can make it as a starter. I doubt you'll find many people saying the Braves need to make a permanent decision on him right this second. Give the dude his shot. But let's not pretend that's anything but a longshot.

[smootness]

The first stats I can find on Newcomb start in 2013, when he was at Hartford.

That year, he walked 4.63 per nine in 72 IP.

2014, at Hartford, he walked 3.66 per nine in 93 1/3 IP.

After being drafted that year, he threw three innings in rookie league ball, walking 1 (3 BB/9). After being promoted to Burlington in the Midwest League, he walked 3.86 per nine in 11 2/3 IP.

In 2015, he started back at Burlington and walked 4.98 per nine innings in 34 1/3 IP. After being promoted to High-A, he walked 4.52 per nine in 65 2/3 IP. And after being promoted to AA, he walked six per nine in 36 IP.

In 2016, he spent the whole year at AA Mississippi and walked 4.56 per nine in 140 IP.

In 2017, he walked 5.15 per nine at AAA in 57 2/3 IP. Since being promoted to the bigs, he's walked 5.06 per nine in 58 2/3 IP.

So...look. Sean Newcomb walks a lot of guys. It's what he's done literally going back to the first moments in which we have recorded statistics for him. You can offer whatever rationalizations for those you want, construct whatever pleasing narratives seem to make sense around them, and that's fine, that's what fans do, and that's basically harmless, but at a certain point you just have to accept that Newcomb is not just one simple mechanical adjustment or mindset tweak away from firing strikes with regularity. We're long past the point where you have to say that it's far likelier Newcomb will never figure out control than it is that he will.

And I have no problem giving him every possible opportunity - and then some - to beat those odds. He's huge, he's left-handed, he's got big-time stuff and we're not competing for anything. So, yeah, absolutely, give him the rest of this year and next to see if he can make it as a starter. I doubt you'll find many people saying the Braves need to make a permanent decision on him right this second. Give the dude his shot. But let's not pretend that's anything but a longshot.

I'd say there's about a 1/3 chance he ends up as at least a decent MLB starter, a 1/3 chance he ends up as a very good RP, and about a 1/3 chance he ends up as worth very little.

[msstate7]

How was Newcomb's change up rated after last start?

[Tapate50]

Walking that many guys- he either makes it or not. I'm not sure moving to the BP does anything to change that. He either gets his walks down and is a starter, or he walks too many to be anywhere on a ML roster.

[atl717]

His walks wouldn't hurt him nearly as much in the bullpen. Lots of very good relievers with control issues.