How likely is Swanson to rebound?

[sturg33]

I could see him being really close to Francisco Lindor.

Detroit's going to love having him

[Deester11]

The BRef data I have been using is MLB-only. The FG article linked above is good, and here is Clay Davenport's projections based on Albies' production in the minors: http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/ALBIES19970107A.shtml

That list of player comps is certainly impressive.

There's been more than a few of us who have volunteered to take a trip to Coppy's office if he trades that kid. He's been good since day one in our system. I don't think I was alone but I have always loved his skillset more than Dansby. That's not hating Dansby I still like him a lot but Albies should be a long term solution.

[chipchildress]

dansby hitting .328 in august with a bunch of walks and fewer strikeouts.

even after how bad he was earlier on, he's better than the average replacement.

i'd say it's pretty clear is promotion last year was the greatest thing to happen to this guy. look at how he's fought through the biggest battle of his athletic life to maybe now have come out on the other side.

[UNCBlue012]

It's not a lot, but worth a mention that Dansby's OBP is at .315 for the year... that's an almost 20-point jump in just a couple weeks.

[Horsehide Harry]

dansby hitting .328 in august with a bunch of walks and fewer strikeouts.

even after how bad he was earlier on, he's better than the average replacement.

i'd say it's pretty clear is promotion last year was the greatest thing to happen to this guy. look at how he's fought through the biggest battle of his athletic life to maybe now have come out on the other side.

"Somebody hold that pig!"

"I'm coming with the lipstick."

[msstate7]

Since being called back up...
75 PA
.350/.467/.483
wRC+ = 152
18.7% bb
14.7% k
.420 BABIP
0.7 fWAR, 0.9 bWAR

BABIP shows some luck, but season still at .289. He's normalizing the opposite way.

[smootness]

Dansby is just doing what he was always likely to do, which is rebound into at least a decent player. Now we will see if he can continue to progress into a really good player.

[zitothebrave]

For me the question with Swanson is what is the ceiling. I think the floor was known that it woudl be a serviceable player. Where he needs to go from here is to lower his K rate a bit and try and start lifting the ball more. He needs to convert some of those grounders to line drives and some liners to flyballs if he wants to take his game to the next level. Or he really needs to cut down on his Ks and become a high contact/high walk ideal leadoff type.

[Enscheff]

Since being called back up...
75 PA
.350/.467/.483
wRC+ = 152
18.7% bb
14.7% k
.420 BABIP
0.7 fWAR, 0.9 bWAR

BABIP shows some luck, but season still at .289. He's normalizing the opposite way.

A .950 OPS on the back of a .420 OPS probably indicates a true talent OPS of .750-.800 with a BABIP of .300-.320. Coupled with slightly above average defense at SS, and that's the 2-3 win player the Braves need Swanson to be if they have any hope of contention in the near future.

Walking more than he Ks is likely a function of batting 8th, but those are still good rates. We've also seen him among the team leaders in average exit velocity this month, which is another encouraging sign.

He is still being carved up by sliders much more than is typical for an MLB hitter, so that is definitely the largest area of concern moving forward.

[msstate7]

A .950 OPS on the back of a .420 OPS probably indicates a true talent OPS of .750-.800 with a BABIP of .300-.320. Coupled with slightly above average defense at SS, and that's the 2-3 win player the Braves need Swanson to be if they have any hope of contention in the near future.

Walking more than he Ks is likely a function of batting 8th, but those are still good rates. We've also seen him among the team leaders in average exit velocity this month, which is another encouraging sign.

He is still being carved up by sliders much more than is typical for an MLB hitter, so that is definitely the largest area of concern moving forward.

.750-.800 with above avg defense... I'll take that

[Enscheff]

.750-.800 with above avg defense... I'll take that

It's actually .739-.767 OPS, but the point still stands.

That is very Jack Wilson.

[msstate7]

It's actually .739-.767 OPS, but the point still stands.

That is very Jack Wilson.

In jack Wilson's 12 years, he posted an ops in the 700s twice: .794 in '04 and .791 in '07. His career ops is .671.

I think dansby will be more lindor than Wilson

[Enscheff]

In jack Wilson's 12 years, he posted an ops in the 700s twice: .794 in '04 and .791 in '07. His career ops is .671.

I think dansby will be more lindor than Wilson

When Swanson moves from the 8 spot he won't walk nearly as much and his OPS will suffer. There is a boost of about 90 points in OPS when a player bats in front of the pitcher (about 30 more in OBP, and 60 more in SLG). That data shows itself in Swanson's splits as well.

He is about a .750-760 true talent hitter right now in the 8th spot, and sub .700 in any other lineup spot.

I'll stick with the Wilson comp.

[Russ2dollas]

When Swanson moves from the 8 spot he won't walk nearly as much and his OPS will suffer.

Additionally, a .671 OPS when Wilson played was more valuable than it is today, especially from the SS position.

I'll stick with the Wilson comp.

Jeff Blauser is still my comp. I think a little less offense and better defense. But right now I see him as a 1-1.5 WAR guy who will have a couple amazing years when the defensive stats favor him and/or the Babip/power gods favor him.

[msstate7]

When Swanson moves from the 8 spot he won't walk nearly as much and his OPS will suffer. There is a boost of about 90 points in OPS when a player bats in front of the pitcher (about 30 more in OBP, and 60 more in SLG). That data shows itself in Swanson's splits as well.

He is about a .750-760 true talent hitter right now in the 8th spot, and sub .700 in any other lineup spot.

I'll stick with the Wilson comp.

You're ops prediction skills suck (I.e. Matt Adams). I say dansby is over .760 ops the rest of the year starting today. Bet?

[smootness]

Swanson's OPS+, even with his current OPS of .650, is 72. Wilson's career OPS+ is 76, and he was only above 77 in the 2 years mentioned above.

[Enscheff]

You're ops prediction skills suck (I.e. Matt Adams). I say dansby is over .760 ops the rest of the year starting today. Bet?

I just said he was a true talent .750-.760 OPS hitter in the 8th spot (you quoted it). He is going to hit 8th the rest of the year.

So no, I'm not going to bet against him posting a .760 OPS for the rest of the year when I literally stated that's how I think he will hit.

And Matt Adams's OPS went below .850 about 4 days after I predicted it would. Had he not been benched so much in late July it would have been under .850 as predicted. Matt Adams is exactly the hitter I said he was, and exactly as valuable as I said he was.

[Enscheff]

Jeff Blauser is still my comp. I think a little less offense and better defense. But right now I see him as a 1-1.5 WAR guy who will have a couple amazing years when the defensive stats favor him and/or the Babip/power gods favor him.

I could buy into Swanson settling in right between Wilson and Blauser, both offensively and defensively.

[msstate7]

I just said he was a true talent .750-.760 OPS hitter in the 8th spot (you quoted it). He is going to hit 8th the rest of the year.

So no, I'm not going to bet against him posting a .760 OPS for the rest of the year when I literally stated that's how I think he will hit.

And Matt Adams's OPS went below .850 about 4 days after I predicted it would. Had he not been benched so much in late July it would have been under .850 as predicted. Matt Adams is exactly the hitter I said he was, and exactly as valuable as I said he was.

I said over .760. I don't think he will hit 8th once Ruiz is up.

[cajunrevenge]

I am very encouraged by his recent hot streak. I just want to see him settle in as a good OBP hitter and good defender. I would keep him batting 8th to start next year. If he can hit well to start next year in the 8th spot then we can maybe move him up. I see Dansby as a .280 avg/.350 OBP/.400+ slugging kind of hitter give or take a little for luck.