How likely is Swanson to rebound?

[Enscheff]

Swanson is having a terrible sophomore season. Over 378 PAs he has produced an OPS+ of 58, meaning 58% of league average.

How likely is a 22/23 year old to rebound and have a nice career after such a bad stretch?

Here is a list For single seasons, From 1997 to 2017, Age between 22-23, From 1st season to 2nd season, For any choice in Season Totals, (requiring PA >= 350 and onbase_plus_slugging_vs_split <= 60), along with each player's career WAR and peak season WAR:

Brandon Phillips (31.4, 4.7)
Ronny Cedeno (negative)
Jack Wilson (23.5, 4.8)
Mike Caruso (0.8, 2.7)
Ramon Santiago (7.9, 2.7)
Cesar Izturis (6.3, 3.8)

Perhaps unsurprisingly, all of those players were SSs, except BP who was a terrific defender at 2B.

Swanson is young enough that there is some time for him to rebound and be a Phillips/Wilson level player. Of course, there is a significant chance he ends up being more similar to the other 4 guys.

He still has the floor of a contributor like Izturis or Santiago, but let's hope he ends up being the next Jack Wilson or Brandon Phillips instead.

[Enscheff]

The Jack Wilson comp is very interesting. Look at their lines from A+/AA at the age of 22...

Wilson: .282/.354/.425 (.779 OPS)
Swanson: .275/.362/.426 (.787 OPS)

Wilson was league average overall by age 24 (1.9 WAR), and posted WARs of 4.8, 4.2, 1.2, 3.6, 1.5, 3.7 over his peak ages of 26-31.

If Swanson follows that path I think we should all be pretty happy considering what is going on now.

[mfree80]

The talent is unmistakeable. I think he struggled to live up to the hype this year. I expect things to be very different next year.

[UNCBlue012]

I think he'll be fine. His talent is there and he's a really smart guy.

It happens!

[GovClintonTyree]

The Jack Wilson comp is very interesting. Look at their lines from A+/AA at the age of 22...

Wilson: .282/.354/.425 (.779 OPS)
Swanson: .275/.362/.426 (.787 OPS)

Wilson was league average overall by age 24 (1.9 WAR), and posted WARs of 4.8, 4.2, 1.2, 3.6, 1.5, 3.7 over his peak ages of 26-31.

If Swanson follows that path I think we should all be pretty happy considering what is going on now.

Jack Wilson had big teeth. And Swanson has better hair than any of those comps. I think his hair is worth 1 WAR, but I'm unsure whether to add it to oWAR or dWAR.

[Jaw]

The decision to bring Swanson up looked bad at the time and seems even worse now. There was a lot of talk about bringing prospects up after they showed they were ready, but he never really did with the bat.
He needed (and still needs) several weeks or months of additional at bats against AAA pitching.

[msstate7]

In the SSS since his return, I think he's looked good even if the results don't show it.

[striker42]

It took Michael Young about 1,000 PAs to break out. Also, if Swanson wasn't one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball his stat line wouldn't look near as bad. It would still be well below average but it wouldn't be awful. If Swanson was hitting .240 would there be near as much chatter about whether or not he can bounce back?

[Julio3000]

I think it's clear that he's a quicker study than some other young guys we've seen who've struggled for protracted periods (*coughFrenchy*). After that terrible early stretch, he made an obvious effort to see more pitches, probably in an attempt to be able to better recognize the breaking stuff he was struggling with. Now he really seems to be focusing on middle/oppo, which is probably a good way to recalibrate and get back on track.

I've always thought that his selectivity and swing mechanics would mean that he's gonna be ok. Having a good head on his shoulders doesn't hurt, either. I've always questioned his ceiling, but I think he's capable of being a good hitter and a significant asset.

[smootness]

I've always thought that his selectivity and swing mechanics would mean that he's gonna be ok. Having a good head on his shoulders doesn't hurt, either. I've always questioned his ceiling, but I think he's capable of being a good hitter and a significant asset.

Totally agree with all of this.

[Hudson2]

Swanson is a hard worker and seems pretty arrogant and prideful so I'm sure he's embarrassed. He's the kind he'll work super hard all offseason on any flaws and I think he'll be fine.

[nsacpi]

I think he'll end up being a steady 2 win player, with a couple seasons above that. I'm not saying there is no chance he could be more than that, but that's the most likely kind of career he's going to have.

[rico43]

Watching his swing last night in Col. game. He hit a pair of line drives and seemed like he was staying down and swinging comfortably. But what are they gonna do when Camargo comes off the DL?

[Enscheff]

I think he'll end up being a steady 2 win player, with a couple seasons above that. I'm not saying there is no chance he could be more than that, but that's the most likely kind of career he's going to have.

Swanson was always considered a "high floor" player more so than a "high ceiling" player. As the comps show, he still pretty much has the floor of a long term below average contributor primarily because he can play SS. Even the bad scenarios on the list produced at the MLB level over a significant stretch of time (except for Caruso who still posted a single 2.7 win season).

The homer in me expects him to be more Jack Wilson and less Cesar Izturis though.

[sturg33]

Enscheff, can you run a query on people with Albies' profile? i.e, young age and production in the minors?

[nsacpi]

Enscheff, can you run a query on people with Albies' profile? i.e, young age and production in the minors?

here is a fangraphs piece on Albies

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/insta...-ozzie-albies/

[Enscheff]

Enscheff, can you run a query on people with Albies' profile? i.e, young age and production in the minors?

The BRef data I have been using is MLB-only. The FG article linked above is good, and here is Clay Davenport's projections based on Albies' production in the minors: http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/ALBIES19970107A.shtml

That list of player comps is certainly impressive.

[Hudson2]

I could see him being really close to Francisco Lindor.

[msstate7]

I could see him being really close to Francisco Lindor.

I'll take it. Where do we sign?

[msstate7]

Watching his swing last night in Col. game. He hit a pair of line drives and seemed like he was staying down and swinging comfortably. But what are they gonna do when Camargo comes off the DL?

To me, it's obviously camargo to 3b. Who knows what snit/johns do though