Why Albies needs to stop hitting so many fly balls

[CJC]

Something weird is happening w/ Ozzie...

His BABIP is about 30 pts lower than last season
His exit velo is consistent
His HardHit% and MedHit% is down from last season
His LD% is the exact same

BUT

He's already outpaced his HR total in 118 fewer at bats and equaled the number of doubles.

I don't really have an explanation

[zitothebrave]

I don't really have an explanation

[VirginiaBrave]

As long as the wins keep coming I freaking don't care. You stat first guys don't know how to enjoy anything for just what it is. Which is a good, young, talented team playing damn good baseball.

[JCarbo76]

Let's see if we can put Ozzie's actual numbers into perspective. After yesterday's game, he has played in 81 games--exactly one-half of a full season and has hit 14 HRs.

Bear with me here and let's extrapolate those numbers over a full season and Ozzie would have 28 homers (And yes, I know all about fly ball ratios, exit velocities and small sample sizes).

How many major leaguers in history have hit more than 28 homers in their first full seasons at age 21 or younger?

Five.

Their names are Cody Bellinger (last season, obviously), Frank Robinson, Albert Pujols, Ted Williams, and Joe DiMaggio.

Heck, let's assume Ozzie realizes that Enscheff is right and he isn't really a power hitter and comes crashing back to Earth and hits zero homers over his next 81 games, so he finishes his first 162 games with 14 homers.

How many major leaguers in history have hit more than 14 homers in their first full season at age 21 or younger? A whopping 28.

If he splits the difference and hits 7 in the next 81 games, only 15 players in major leagues history would have bested his 21 homers in their first full season under age 21.

Let's enjoy it, folks, we really may be starting to see something special.

[nsacpi]

Something weird is happening w/ Ozzie...

His BABIP is about 30 pts lower than last season
His exit velo is consistent
His HardHit% and MedHit% is down from last season
His LD% is the exact same

BUT

He's already outpaced his HR total in 118 fewer at bats and equaled the number of doubles.

I don't really have an explanation

small sample weirdness

[AerchAngel]

Ens is usually right or close to right in the end. Everyone give him props for that, he knows his stuff.

But am I the only one that thinks him being a total elitist prick that takes away the good he brings.? I mean, I am like "dude, just stick to analyses as no one can touch you and quit being a douche about it or be a know it all." I would punch someone like him in the face for being that way because it is not needed."

Be cordial, you got a good audience, treat them like that. Disagree with them but do it in a humble way.

[Bravesfan]

Ens is usually right or close to right in the end. Everyone give him props for that, he knows his stuff.

But am I the only one that thinks him being a total elitist prick that takes away the good he brings.? I mean, I am like "dude, just stick to analyses as no one can touch you and quit being a douche about it or be a know it all." I would punch someone like him in the face for being that way because it is not needed."

Be cordial, you got a good audience, treat them like that. Disagree with them but do it in a humble way.

My biggest takeaway is that while he is probably right, it seems that he is more concerned with being right rather than the success of the team.

[CJC]

Ens is usually right or close to right in the end. Everyone give him props for that, he knows his stuff.

But am I the only one that thinks him being a total elitist prick that takes away the good he brings.? I mean, I am like "dude, just stick to analyses as no one can touch you and quit being a douche about it or be a know it all." I would punch someone like him in the face for being that way because it is not needed."

Be cordial, you got a good audience, treat them like that. Disagree with them but do it in a humble way.

Agreed 200%

It also helps that he does it in almost every thread, including game threads, so that the only way we could avoid it would be to leave.

[GovClintonTyree]

Ens is usually right or close to right in the end. Everyone give him props for that, he knows his stuff.

But am I the only one that thinks him being a total elitist prick that takes away the good he brings.? I mean, I am like "dude, just stick to analyses as no one can touch you and quit being a douche about it or be a know it all." I would punch someone like him in the face for being that way because it is not needed."

Be cordial, you got a good audience, treat them like that. Disagree with them but do it in a humble way.

Right. Really all I was asking for was his take on Ozzie's start and whether he had some statistical knowledge that might explain the results, which don't seem to match up with his exit velocity. While I'm not as statistically inclined as many on the board, I do appreciate good analysis and thought maybe he saw something.

Sadly, it immediately devolved into him insulting me for asking what he considered an ill-informed question, and he did what he does. And as you say, that's unfortunate.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Right. Really all I was asking for was his take on Ozzie's start and whether he had some statistical knowledge that might explain the results, which don't seem to match up with his exit velocity. While I'm not as statistically inclined as many on the board, I do appreciate good analysis and thought maybe he saw something.

Sadly, it immediately devolved into him insulting me for asking what he considered an ill-informed question, and he did what he does. And as you say, that's unfortunate.

My insight would be, based on looking the explanation is pretty simple, because he's elevating a lot of balls (46.4% fly ball rate). Honestly he is doing it too much for my liking but my feeling is if you're going to elevate that much, eventually you're going to run into some.

Honestly it might behoove him to start doing a little more of the less exaggerated leg kick on his left side, as while he's getting good results overall, the overall numbers for him on his left side are a little scary. Either way, that side is never going to be stronger for him but it needs to be stronger than a .225 BA (.750 OPS propped up by slugging) with a 20.5% K (strikeouts are up in the league but for a contact guy that's scary).

[Orphan Black]

Ens is usually right or close to right in the end. Everyone give him props for that, he knows his stuff.

But am I the only one that thinks him being a total elitist prick that takes away the good he brings.? I mean, I am like "dude, just stick to analyses as no one can touch you and quit being a douche about it or be a know it all." I would punch someone like him in the face for being that way because it is not needed."

Be cordial, you got a good audience, treat them like that. Disagree with them but do it in a humble way.

He is on my ignore list because despite how smart he is he is also exactly what you say and his negatives outweighs his positives to me.

[Enscheff]

Something weird is happening w/ Ozzie...

His BABIP is about 30 pts lower than last season
His exit velo is consistent
His HardHit% and MedHit% is down from last season
His LD% is the exact same

BUT

He's already outpaced his HR total in 118 fewer at bats and equaled the number of doubles.

I don't really have an explanation

The explanation is simply luck over 100 PAs, and I'm not sure how many other ways I can say the same thing. A lot of his FBs are falling just over the edge of the fence right now, as evidenced by his 20%+ HR rate.

So far in 2018, exactly 44 players have hit 5+ HRs. Ozzie ranks #38 in average exit velocity on those HRs. He simply doesn't hit the ball very hard.

It is a trivial exercise to head to FG and use the splits leader boards to find players who have had a lucky HR month and then come nowhere close to repeating it. Albies simply doesn't hit the ball hard enough to support a 20%+ HR rate long term, and he can't keep hitting fly balls 46% of the time.

I know it upsets people to hear that, and I fully expect backlash...but facts are facts.

[AerchAngel]

The explanation is simply luck over 100 PAs, and I'm not sure how many other ways I can say the same thing. A lot of his FBs are falling just over the edge of the fence right now, as evidenced by his 20%+ HR rate.

So far in 2018, exactly 44 players have hit 5+ HRs. Ozzie ranks #38 in average exit velocity on those HRs.

It is a trivial exercise to head to FG and use the splits leader boards to find players who have had a lucky HR month and then come nowhere close to repeating it. Albies simply doesn't hit the ball hard enough to support a 20%+ HR rate long term, and he can't keep hitting fly balls 46% of the time.

I know it upsets people to hear that, and I fully expect backlash...but facts are facts.

not many dispute your facts.

But being a total prick about being right is the problem.

[thewupk]

not many dispute your facts.

But being a total prick about being right is the problem.

actually a lot of people seem to dispute them and get upset because it goes against what they want to believe

[Enscheff]

actually a lot of people seem to dispute them and get upset because it goes against what they want to believe

The origins of almost every single back and forth came about because some person on this board thought they were smarter than they are, and got upset that I proved them wrong. Once they begin the personal attacks, I never let it go.

There are several posters on this board who disagree with me intelligently, have never resorted to attacking me personally, and therefore I never attack them. Never.

Have I ever personally attacked you, nsacpi, beanie, jpx, or the other intelligent and respectful posters when they disagree with me? No, I have not.

[bravesfanMatt]

The origins of almost every single back and forth came about because some person on this board thought they were smarter than they are, and got upset that I proved them wrong. Once they begin the personal attacks, I never let it go.

There are several posters on this board who disagree with me intelligently, have never resorted to attacking me personally, and therefore I never attack them. Never.

Jackass.

Bring it.

[Hawk]

Oh, great, another thread about this ****wit.

[bravesfanMatt]

Oh, great, another thread about this ****wit.

Why are you calling Ozzie a ****wit.

[Hawk]

Why are you calling Ozzie a ****wit.

Because he isn't intelligent and has attacked me (personally).

[Enscheff]

Oh, great, another thread about this ****wit.

Perfect example of a moron who doesn't like being shown to be a moron and resorts to personal attacks.

Shall I spend some time digging up more examples?