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Thread: 2018 Projection

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    2018 Projection

    Replacement level starting point 48 wins

    Pen plus bench: 4 wins (running total 52)

    Flowers: 2 (54)
    Freeman (6.5) (60.5)
    Albies (1.5) (62)
    Swanson (1.5) (63.5)
    Camargo/Adams "platoon" at third (1.5) (65)
    Markakis/Acuna in right (1.5) (66.5)
    Inciarte (3.5) (70)
    Kemp (0.5) (70.5)

    Folty (2) (72.5)
    Dickey (1.5) (74)
    Teheran (1.5) (75.5)
    Newcomb (1.5) (77)
    Mid-Range Acquisition (2) (79)
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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    Where's My Cup of Coffee?
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    Seems mostly reasonable, though I think Julio will either be boom or bust. If he gets his control back I think he can still be a solid 2.5-3 WAR guy, if not I doubt he even hits 1.5 WAR. Of course Swanson, Albies, and Acuna are the wildcards as to whether we can be a .500ish team or below after team.

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    I know it's nibbling but I think this is like 3 wins too high because I see Kemp being a negative as well as whoever our 3B are. So I guess count me as a nega for next year.
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    Losing Simmons, Wood, and Kimbrel set us back a couple years.

    I agreed with the decision to trade Kimbrel. But man, if we inserted their production into our team this year, we'd be looking at 68-56 record, rather than our 56-68 record

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    Little light on Ozzie.
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    I could buy into this team pushing .500 in 2018.

    Until the rotation is projected to produce 10+ wins, I don't think the Braves should be making any additions to the MLB roster.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    Little light on Ozzie.
    I'm a fan. But I'm also conservative when it comes to projecting production out of rookies.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
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    I'd love to think we are going to get this Swanson (Last 10 games) for the whole year next year. That looks like a 3-4WAR player but he has tricked us in small samples before.
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    Sabermetric Slut
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    So we need Albies, Swanson, and Acuna all play to their prospect ranking and be good (2-3 WAR guys) players. Somehow replace Kemp with league average production. And have the rotation produce a couple of 2+ WAR guys and we will be in the playoff hunt

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Losing Simmons, Wood, and Kimbrel set us back a couple years.

    I agreed with the decision to trade Kimbrel. But man, if we inserted their production into our team this year, we'd be looking at 68-56 record, rather than our 56-68 record
    That's why I was against trading CK from start. Special closers are not a dime dozen.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    Little light on Ozzie.
    Yeah. I've seen enough to bump it up to 3 WAR for Ozzie next year. I still want to be conservative with projections for him. But he has produced 1.4 WAR already this year. So a bump up is justified. And that gets us to .500.
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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    So we need Albies, Swanson, and Acuna all play to their prospect ranking and be good (2-3 WAR guys) players. Somehow replace Kemp with league average production. And have the rotation produce a couple of 2+ WAR guys and we will be in the playoff hunt
    We've seen some encouraging developments the last few weeks. The young dynamic diverse competitive infield that everyone wants to dance with. The arms that are emerging in the pen (Minty, Freeman, Winkler). Teheran possibly righting himself. Gohara. And Acuna is on the horizon.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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    Which Adams is playing 3B? Do you mean Ruiz?

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    Which Adams is playing 3B? Do you mean Ruiz?
    The bigger Adams. I think maybe the Freddie at third experiment has passed. That's what I meant by platoon in quotation marks.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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