List authored by Jon Heyman for Fanrag:
1. Yu Darvish, Dodgers SP. Word was going around he was seeking something along the lines of Stephen Strasburg’s $175 million, seven-year deal. But while he’s a little older than Strasburg was when Strasburg signed, Darvish seems to have a case. They have similar résumés, and similar injury histories, and unlike Strasburg when he signed, Darvish is a free agent. It will be interesting to see who gets the highest deal this winter, but nobody should be surprised if it’s this guy.
2. Jake Arrieta, Cubs SP. The talk in the first couple months was about how he was costing himself millions. But he has turned things around, thanks to a mechanical adjustment, and is back to being the ace of the Cubs (4-1, 2.09 in the second half). The Cy Young year and a couple fine World Series performances are also not too far from people’s minds.
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals 1B. He’s a leader and a winner – and better still, he’s still only 27. He and Salvy Perez were the heart and soul in the best stretch of seasons ever put together by the small-market Royals. As a bonus, he does the little things, including run the bases. And don’t put too much emphasis on the negative defensive metrics – the Royals and others know he’s superb at a set of skills (pickoffs, relays, DPs) that aren’t measured in defensive zone rating. One of the elite of this market.
4. Mike Moustakas, Royals 3B. He’s turned in a brilliant walk year, and is about to break the Royals franchise record for home runs. He’s also about to cash in big. With Rafael Devers looking like the third baseman of the future in Boston, his hometown Angels (he’s from the L.A. Valley) may make the most sense.
5. Alex Cobb, Rays SP. He posted superb numbers in his walk year, too, and they might have looked even better had he not been left in too long in a couple cases. Turf toe knocked him out recently, and he’s had a few nicks and bruises along the way, but when he’s right, he’s terrific. He even found his patented changeup before going out. Highly intelligent, adventuresome guy (he and his wife move every so often just to sample the country) who should really enjoy free agency. Mike Leake is probably a fair comp, though this guy’s upside is higher. Of the prime-time starters, he’s the only one still in his 20s.
6. J.D. Martinez, Diamondbacks OF. The year-long under-valuation of sluggers hurt the Tigers, who were criticized for pouncing on a quick deal in a market they understood to be rough. The guess here is, he will do much better in free agency, when all 30 teams are in play, not just contenders. Let’s not forget: This man can rake.
7. Wade Davis, Cubs RP. The Royals’ idea to turn him into a full-time reliever turned his career around. One of the best relievers around, and he’s having a nice year in his first season with a big-market club.
8. Greg Holland, Rockies RP. The K.C. theme continues, though Holland’s an ex-Royal. His free agent deal from last winter will really pay off big now – while it guaranteed only $7 million at the time, the opt-out that came with it might be worth up to 10 times that. He’s finally hit a rough patch, but it’s a small one, and assuming he gets back on track, a major payday awaits.
9. Lance Lynn, Cardinals SP. He may be in the bottom half of the Cardinals’ rotation, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be unpopular this winter, To the contrary, he’ll have plenty of suitors.
10. Lorenzo Cain, Royals OF. He’s a winning player, and while his batting stats don’t always tell the whole story, his WAR probably does. He’s still a very fine defender in center, though maybe a half notch below the very elite. He could benefit from the lack of a qualifying offer, if the Royals decide they can’t chance giving a third and fourth one (Hosmer and Moustakas are sure to get the QO from KC).
11. Jason Vargas, Royals SP. You get the idea. The Royals have a lot of fine free agents. Don’t let the velo fool you; this guy can pitch. Based on how he threw this year, he should by all rights get a qualifying offer.
12. Zack Cozart, Reds SS. The Reds never found a trade for him while shopping him to contenders. But with all 30 teams in play, it’s hard to imagine Cozart not being rewarded for his superior, All-Star walk year. The Reds are said to be willing to give him two years, but that will be at least a year light, and maybe two. He’s a hidden gem.
13. Jay Bruce, Indians OF. It’s still a bit of a mystery why there wasn’t much of a market for Bruce, even after his brilliant first half for the Mets. But he should do better as a free agent, now that he has shown he can play in a big market, and also in a pennant race. The man certainly has power. And while he isn’t the most graceful outfielder, he’s more efficient than you think.
14. Carlos Santana, Indians 1B. He’s versatile at bat, having the ability to switch hit, and to bat leadoff or cleanup. The new GMs love his ability to get on base. While some close to him sought to make the case that he’s as good, or better, than Hosmer, he’s a few years older, and ultimately, he didn’t help himself with a regressive walk year.
15. Jonathan Lucroy, Rockies catcher. He’s regained his batting form since going to Colorado – and Coors. But this is a guy who’s hit everywhere he’s been, with the exception of the first half in Texas this year. Not sure if it was the walk-year pressure, or what. But that just wasn’t him.
16. Tyler Chatwood Rockies SP. He’s been pretty good the past couple years, setting up the potential of a decent payday, especially considering he’s been so much better on the road than at Coors Field. Someone could see a star in the right park – or any park besides Coors.
17. Jaime Garcia, Yankees SP. He was traded twice, so you know at least a couple teams like him. He’s bounced back nicely from thoracic outlet syndrome to regain his form.
18. Marco Estrada, Jays SP. That he was claimed with his high salary says something. While he didn’t have a great year, he’s finishing strong. Though he doesn’t throw hard, he’s also proven to be a pretty good big-game pitcher.
19. Jeremy Hellickson, Orioles SP. He was the key man in the most surprising deal of the trade deadline season. Who knew the Orioles were buyers? But he’s out-pitched expectations for a while now. Won’t top that $17.2 million salary of this year, but with a history of out-pacing expectations and winning in tough ballparks, he should do fine.
20. Addison Reed, Red Sox RP. Tough pitcher can thrive in almost any role in the pen. Don’t judge him only by his stuff; his heart is huge.
21. Bryan Shaw, Indians RP. Like most of the Indians bullpen, he isn’t quite as good this year as last year. But he’s still very good.
22. Pat Neshek, Rockies RP. He is a tough guy to hit, and he had a mostly magical year, including his inning in the All-Star Game.
23. Luke Gregorson, Astros RP. He’s another fine reliever in a market full of them. He’s also another who pitches beyond his stuff.
24. Brandon Kintzler, Twins RP. Another of the late-developing relievers, he’s had a nice year in both Minnesota and D.C.
25. Todd Frazier, Yankees 3B. While his batting average has slipped the past couple years, he’s a prototypical third baseman, who can handle the hot corner.
26. Logan Morrison, Rays 1B. LoMo looked like an overpay at $2.5 million last winter. But he earned that, and much more. And yes, he’s right; he should have been in the Home Run Derby.
27. Tony Watson, Dodgers RP. Hard-throwing lefty is getting another chance in a pennant race, and how he pitches from here on out may tell the tale. He certainly has talent, though, and should get a decent deal somewhere.
28. Anthony Swarzak, Brewers RP. He took off after 30, dominating on the mound after a career as mostly a journeyman, But it’s what you’ve done lately that counts, so he should do well.
29. CC Sabathia, Yankees SP. He’s had some knee trouble, and of course a loss of velocity. But he still knows how to win. There will be a job somewhere for the all-time lefty strikeout pitcher in the AL, maybe even with the Yankees.
30. Lucas Duda, Rays DH/1B. Under the radar, he’s put together a very nice season in Queens, then St. Pete. He is really a solid – and under-rated – run producer when healthy. The Mariners are always thought to have liked him.
31. Jarrod Dyson, Mariners OF. He’s an elite defender in the outfield, and one of the fastest players in the bigs. So he’s a weapon.
32. Jon Jay, Cubs OF. He took a one-year deal last year but that shouldn’t be necessary this time around. He’s had quite a fine first year at Wrigley for the Cubs, one of their most pleasant surprises in a season that hasn’t matched expectations by a long shot.
33. Eduardo Nunez, Red Sox UTIL. He’s enhanced the Red Sox’s push for the AL East division in their battle with Nunez’s old Yankees team. He has speed, can hit and is versatile. While he isn’t the hitter that Ben Zobrist is, he should find plenty of love on an open market.
34. Andrew Cashner, Rangers SP. He always seems to do better than you think, as baseball people still believe in his potential. And he’s actually looked very good over the past few months, meaning he might be able to approach or even top the deal he got last winter.
35. Neil Walker, Brewers 2B. He was smart to take the $17.2 million qualifying offer, and he should do OK with his second-half resurgence. He certainly seems healthy.
36. Yonder Alonso, Mariners 1B. A huge first half, culminating with his two-hit effort in the All-Star Game in his hometown of Miami (with his brother-in-law Manny Machado, who didn’t make the team, watching) that seems almost all but forgotten. He went into a deep dive after that game, and if the trade market is any indication, he shouldn’t expect to hit the jackpot in free agency.
37. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies OF. Had he had his usual year, he’d be near the top of this list. But this season has been anything but typical for him (though he’s hit around .300 over his last 100 at-bats), and he may have to take a one-year deal to re-establish his value.
38. David Hernandez, Diamondbacks RP. He’s at home back in Arizona, but he’s a useful reliever anywhere.
39. Carlos Gomez, Rangers OF. He didn’t match his finish the year before his first full season in Arlington, Texas. But he did play well enough to get a starting job somewhere. He’s certainly fallen off his Milwaukee days but still should have a place somewhere.
40. Austin Jackson, Indians OF. He’s always been an elite defender, and he made an all-time great catch at Fenway, diving into the bullpen. He was a great catch for the Indians, too, easily exceeding expectations with the bat as well.
41. Melky Cabrera, Royals OF. The Melk Man still can deliver in the clutch – he’s had the most walkoff hits since 2008. Truth be told, he’s just about as good a hitter as he ever was. He’s just slipped a bit in the field, which is to be expected at his age.
42. Curtis Granderson, Dodgers OF. Granderson ruminated about possibly retiring when things weren’t going as well a few weeks back. But really, since mid-May he has hit, and it’s clear he has plenty left in the tank. Only a rough start kept him from having a monster season. And he looks to be finishing big with this all-time Dodgers team.
43. Fernando Rodney, Diamondbacks RP. Not sure he’ll be able to shoot off an arrow when he signs, but he’s closed all year for a contender after the D-backs stuck with him following a rough start there.
44. Mark Reynolds, Rockies 1B. Once again, there are a ton of slugging first base/DH types out there. But give this guy credit. He signed a minor-league deal last winter, and made it count, maxing out his incentives and helping the Rockies into playoff position. Some will ask: Is it Coors or a career resurgence? I tend to think it’s the latter.
45. John Lackey, Cubs SP. He won’t be able to look at his defense if the offers aren’t there this winter; should he get an offer or two, if he wants to keep going.
46. Jesse Chavez, Angels SP-RP. Versatile pitcher should do OK on the open market.
47. Alex Avila, Cubs catcher. If anyone thought nepotism was behind his signing with the Tigers, they can forget about it. If anything, father Al, the Tigers’ GM, knew he was finally healthy again following some bouts with concussions. He is back to his old hitting form, and was for both the Tigers and the Cubs, where he was much needed due to a couple of catching injuries.
48. Miguel Gonzales, White Sox SP. Not a hard thrower, but he’s won despite low velo readings in recent days.
49. Chris Tillman, Orioles SP. He never was himself this year. But someone may get a one-year bargain.
50. Juan Nicasio, Pirates RP. Big arm, and he’s had some big moments.
51. Tyson Ross, Rangers SP. Injuries have slowed him the past couple years. But the bet here is he still has it in him.
52. Joe Smith, Indians RP. The pitcher with the bland name and funky delivery can get outs in a pinch. Will long have a job.
53. Bartolo Colon, Twins SP. He’s already beat the odds by getting this far into his 40s. But the way he’s going in Minnesota, who’s to say there isn’t another a year – or two – left in him?
54. Jayson Werth, Nats OF. He looked like he can still play before suffering a foot injury that knocked him out for months. But at age 37, and coming off a lower leg injury, he’s probably looking at a one-year deal.
55. Scott Feldman, Reds SP. Has vacillated between overpaid and underpaid throughout his career. Was doing OK before a knee injury this time.
56. Tyler Clippard, Astros RP. He pitched in three different venues this year, and the third one will probably tell the tale of how his free agency goes.
57. Matt Holliday, Yankees DH. He was off to a great start in the Bronx, but a mysterious ailment set him back, and he hasn’t been the same since. His great clubhouse rep probably gets him another year, and don’t put a nice comeback past him.
58. Jhoulys Chacin, Padres SP. He had his moments in 2017, and might find the free-agent market more to his liking this time around. Of course, he was much better at home in Petco Park than anywhere else.
59. Matt Belisle, Twins RP. He’s closed some games now that Kintzler is gone, and done quite well.
60. Jose Reyes, Mets Inf. He’s shown considerable enthusiasm, durability and versatility. But he should not be a starting shortstop anymore (though he was for most of the Mets season) and has had trouble getting his average much above .220. This probably isn’t a great formula for a big free agent payday.
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