"Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.
It’s over."
Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.
Albies is now pacing at almost 5 fWAR.
Lock him up! MBGA!
Albies BAPIP is on .303... so doesn't seem to flukey
114 wRC+
jpx7 (08-27-2017)
his results are starting to normalize
Major league strikeout rate at 15.6%. This matches his results in AA and AAA last year, but a bit less than his 20.1% rate in AAA this year. For 2018, I would expect him to come in around 16%.
Walk rate is 7.8%, a bit above his AAA rate of 6.3% but in line with what he did last year. I think he will be around 7% in 2018.
BABIP is .303, still a bit on the low side of what he did in the minors. I would project a .320 BABIP for 2018.
ISO is .235. This is the one number that is significantly at odds with his minor league data. I would project it to normalize to something around .160 next year.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
jpx7 (08-27-2017)
There are currently 426 MLB players with 75 or more ABs in 2017. Albies ranks #55 xwOBA-xOBA with a -0.045 mark.
This means that based on his batted ball profile, he would be expected to have a .312 wOBA. He actually has a .357 wOBA.
Albies is currently getting lucky based on his batted ball profile.
However, I don't expect his batted ball profile to remain as it is. I expect his LD% to increase and his FB% to decrease (it is already down to 44.8% from over 50%). This will allow him to sustain production around his current level as his luck starts to change.
For reference, here are the Braves who have been lucky/unlucky:
1 Ender Inciarte 0.274 - 0.329 -0.055
2 Ozzie Albies 0.312 - 0.357 -0.045
3 Johan Camargo 0.295 - 0.336 -0.041
4 Kurt Suzuki 0.336 - 0.375 -0.039
5 Freddie Freeman 0.406 - 0.438 -0.032
6 Matt Adams 0.342 - 0.362 -0.020
7 Brandon Phillips 0.311 - 0.330 -0.019
8 Danny Santana 0.247 - 0.260 -0.013
9 Tyler Flowers 0.352 - 0.365 -0.013
10 Nick Markakis 0.330 - 0.338 -0.008
11 Matt Kemp 0.363 - 0.355 0.008
12 Dansby Swanson 0.299 - 0.289 0.010
13 Adonis Garcia 0.305 - 0.280 0.025
14 Jace Peterson 0.305 - 0.263 0.042
15 Rio Ruiz 0.307 - 0.251 0.056