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Thread: Another focus on pitching in the offseason...This one may be real though

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    Another focus on pitching in the offseason...This one may be real though

    Ok, so there’s a lot of talk about where we are, so I’d like to here some opinions on where we are going. Adding Acuna and Albies to Dansby, Freeman, Ender, and Flowers gives our offense a good core. I think we’ll trade Nick and go after a 3B, but the focus needs to be on pitching.

    In the rotation you have Teheran, Folty, Newk, and R.A. (if we choose and I think we actually might) We have Gohara and Sims who could be ready and are coming off of good seasons. You could have a AAA rotation led by Soroka, Allard, and Fried with a token reclamation project and another guy like Blair or Withrow. Touki could be ready for AAA at some point depending on how he ends the season in AA and Wright of course could be in the picture at any time.
    I think we’ll look to upgrade by signing at least 1 starter and trading for another. Looking at who is coming off of good seasons I’d say Gohara, Sims, and Touki would be the most likely to be traded with Allard as a longshot if we go big. Soroka is the only one coming off of a good season I can’t see traded. The only reason I throw Allard out there is the back. Anyone who has had a bad back knows how that goes. Also Gohara may be viewed as similar within in the FO but less valuable in trade.

    Coppy was quoted recently saying the pen was a focus in the offseason. Relievers are getting paid these days, but I think it’s a similar approach of trading for one and signing another for the back-end of the pen. I don’t believe they have faith Viz can make it a whole season and Johnson will be on the block, although we may be stuck with him for the first half. Kroll will be gone. When looking at who will be here Minter is the first name to come up followed by Lindgren if he is healthy. Winkler, Ramirez, Freeman, Jackson, Akeel are all good options and are out of options. Winkler we’ll have to keep. I think 3 of those other 4 are traded.

    Watts and Clouse should anchor the AAA pen with Dirks, Webb, Biddle, Pike, Mader, Roney all options depending on who we put on the 40 man roster and who we trade. Wisler is a wild card. He could be in the pen if not traded. He has options left.

    So my complete speculation is we add 2 starters and 2 back of the pen relievers. It’s very hard to speculate on who they will be. I think we’ll have around 40-50M to spend pending other moves and exactly where our salary is. We should have some decent trade chips as well.

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    I think we'll pick up one mid-level starter via free agency (someone like Cobb, Lynn or Jaime Garcia). Hopefully on a three year deal. The rest should be waiting for the cavalry to arrive from the minors.
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    I'd go after Cobb and a couple of bp arms and wait also. We have a lot of pitching coming and when they're ready we need to have room for them. But Coppy I have a bad feeling is gonna want to trade for a TOR starter like Fulmer or Archer.

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    I never thought our pitching would be this bad as we prepared for 2017. Agree with those above in that we'll probably look for a mid-rotation guy who can eat some innings. Like Hudson2, I worry about a move for Fulmer or Archer. Cost on those two will be very high.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    I never thought our pitching would be this bad as we prepared for 2017. Agree with those above in that we'll probably look for a mid-rotation guy who can eat some innings. Like Hudson2, I worry about a move for Fulmer or Archer. Cost on those two will be very high.
    The biggest mistake the FO could make at this point would be to lose patience and abandon the strategic plan, a large part of which is to grow our own front-line starting pitching. I think there is a decent chance that one of Soroka, Gohara, Wright, Allard turns out to be a front-line starter and that a second one turns out to be at least a league average starter. The actual outcome could be worse or better than that but for planning purposes that is the premise we should proceed from.
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    I wonder if Stroman would cost less than Fulmer and Archer in a trade?

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    I will say, in slight defense of the front office, that we've been worried about the Johns making a dumb trade for a starter for a while, and they've had lots of opportunities, and they haven't done it yet. They didn't stupidly trade for Sale or Quintana or Gray. They haven't stupidly traded for Archer.

    Not to say they won't, but they've resisted the temptation so far.

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    Kinda interesting thought - IF you're a believer in Rio's recent power spike and Riley's production since his promotion, would you be willing to gamble that they could platoon at 3B as early as late next season? (And obviously more importantly going into 2019.)

    If you do, do you go "all-in" on pitching this winter, giving you plenty of trade pieces moving forward? For example, sign BOTH Lynn and Cobb to 3 year deals to lock down the middle of the rotation and decline Dickey's option. That would give you...

    Lynn, Cobb, and Julio under control through 2020 (all making around $12 million at the most), with the hope that Folty finally takes that step forward and Gohara, Wright, and Allard coming if he doesn't. If Folty, Newcomb, or Sims take that next step, great, but if they don't you don't suddenly have a hole towards the front of the rotation.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Kinda interesting thought - IF you're a believer in Rio's recent power spike and Riley's production since his promotion, would you be willing to gamble that they could platoon at 3B as early as late next season? (And obviously more importantly going into 2019.)

    If you do, do you go "all-in" on pitching this winter, giving you plenty of trade pieces moving forward? For example, sign BOTH Lynn and Cobb to 3 year deals to lock down the middle of the rotation and decline Dickey's option. That would give you...

    Lynn, Cobb, and Julio under control through 2020 (all making around $12 million at the most), with the hope that Folty finally takes that step forward and Gohara, Wright, and Allard coming if he doesn't. If Folty, Newcomb, or Sims take that next step, great, but if they don't you don't suddenly have a hole towards the front of the rotation.
    My guess is that you are too low on Lynn and Cobb's salary.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    I wonder if Stroman would cost less than Fulmer and Archer in a trade?
    Trading for Stroman would represent an abandonment the strategic plan. It would be a mistake imo.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadduxFanII View Post
    I will say, in slight defense of the front office, that we've been worried about the Johns making a dumb trade for a starter for a while, and they've had lots of opportunities, and they haven't done it yet. They didn't stupidly trade for Sale or Quintana or Gray. They haven't stupidly traded for Archer.

    Not to say they won't, but they've resisted the temptation so far.
    I give them credit for that. And I don't hold it against them they kicked the tires on those players.
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Kinda interesting thought - IF you're a believer in Rio's recent power spike and Riley's production since his promotion, would you be willing to gamble that they could platoon at 3B as early as late next season? (And obviously more importantly going into 2019.)
    I would give the internal options at least half of 2018 before going after an external option at third. Always better to fill a position with homegrown players.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    My guess is that you are too low on Lynn and Cobb's salary.
    Makes little difference - use whatever number you like. They're likely to both fall in the 3/$36 million to 3/$45 million range. Assuming you're not spending big money on a 3B like Moustakas, signing both wouldn't increase payroll over what it was at the beginning of 2017.

    The question was "would you be tempted to sign both to substantially upgrade the rotation to lessen the reliance on the young pitching?"
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Makes little difference - use whatever number you like. They're likely to both fall in the 3/$36 million to 3/$45 million range. Assuming you're not spending big money on a 3B like Moustakas, signing both wouldn't increase payroll over what it was at the beginning of 2017.

    The question was "would you be tempted to sign both to substantially upgrade the rotation to lessen the reliance on the young pitching?"
    We have internal pay increases scheduled in 2018 for guys like Freeman (0.5M), Inciarte (2M), Teheran (1.7M), the guys going through arb (Adams, Folty and Viz) and a few others. Total will be about 8M. Covered partly by the Colon and Garcia contracts going off the books.

    I think we will have enough to sign one mid-range free agent (10-15M per year range). But not two.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadduxFanII View Post
    I will say, in slight defense of the front office, that we've been worried about the Johns making a dumb trade for a starter for a while, and they've had lots of opportunities, and they haven't done it yet. They didn't stupidly trade for Sale or Quintana or Gray. They haven't stupidly traded for Archer.

    Not to say they won't, but they've resisted the temptation so far.
    Agreed. For all the bitching and moaning, led by me, they haven't pulled the trigger on a truly dumb move yet.

    I'm not sure they should be commended for that, but it should be recognized.

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    If the Braves keep Dickey they should just go with what they have. Teheran, Folty, Dickey, Newk, and someone until an internal option is ready to replace one of the poor performers.

    If they decide to move on from Dickey, a guy like Lynn or Cobb might enter the picture if they don't cost a draft pick. Any notion of getting them for $12M per year is completely naive though.

    More likely the Braves will be shopping in the Vargas/Garcia bin of pitchers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    If the Braves keep Dickey they should just go with what they have. Teheran, Folty, Dickey, Newk, and someone until an internal option is ready to replace one of the poor performers.

    If they decide to move on from Dickey, a guy like Lynn or Cobb might enter the picture if they don't cost a draft pick. Any notion of getting them for $12M per year is completely naive though.

    More likely the Braves will be shopping in the Vargas/Garcia bin of pitchers.
    we need to move away from one year stop gaps...the ideal signing would be Cobb on 3 years with an option for a 4th year...he is young enough to be a good complementary player in 2020-21. We need to pick up a player like that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Lynn, Cobb, and Julio under control through 2020 (all making around $12 million at the most), with the hope that Folty finally takes that step forward and Gohara, Wright, and Allard coming if he doesn't. If Folty, Newcomb, or Sims take that next step, great, but if they don't you don't suddenly have a hole towards the front of the rotation.
    Here is the big flaw with this approach...If Lynn, Cobb, and Julio are in the rotation, that leaves 2 slots...lets say Folty gets one. You have 1 slot in the rotation to house Newk, Sims, Gohara, Fried, with possible Wright, Soroka & Allard coming fast.

    I can see leaving Soroka & Allard at AAA for the year...no one would complain.
    I can see leaving Wright, Gohara, Fried in AAA for part of the year...they have not really proven themselves yet.
    I CAN NOT see leaving Newk & Sims in AAA. They have both spent plenty of time there and have had their shot in MLB already.

    So before you can go your route, you have to trade or cut all but one of Newk, Sims & Blair and maybe a Withrow also.

    I think they look at Colorado this year and do a Folty, Teheran, Newk, Sims, and winner of Gohara & Fried in spring training rotation. By June they trade (or injury) one of Folty, Teheran, & Sims and bring up the loser or Gohara & Fried.

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    You can't fill the rotation with middle guys (Teheran, Folty, Cobb) and give enough room for the high end potential guys to work in (Gohara, Newk, Wright, Soroka, Allard). Just not enough spots.

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    Here is a list of all 10 current active 3-4 year deals given out to SPs with an AAV of $12M+:

    Rick Porcello 4/82.5
    James Shields 4/75
    Ervin Santana 4/55
    Ubaldo Jimenez 4/50
    Matt Garza 4/50
    Ricky Nolasco 4/49
    Brandon McCarthy 4/48
    Rich Hill 3/48
    Scott Kazmir 3/48
    JA Happ 3/36

    I would consider 3 of those deals positive for the team: Santana, Hill and Happ.

    The remaining 7 are various levels of disaster.

    Signing SPs to 3-4 year deals is no more of a bargain than signing them to 5+ year deals. Pitchers who sign 3-4 year deals are either older or injury prone. The Braves should avoid these deals for SPs at all costs.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 08-30-2017 at 11:16 AM.

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