Page 1 of 4 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 70

Thread: Extending Swanson and Albies

  1. #1
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts

    Extending Swanson and Albies

    Swanson and Albies are showing signs of being exactly what all of Braves nation hoped for...good/great players under team control for a long time that should anchor the middle infield for the foreseeable future.

    It is my opinion that the Braves should look to extend both players this offseason. They decided not to manipulate the service times of their 2 most valuable young assets, so they need to recoup some of the value they lost by promoting them early. So let's examine what such extensions are likely to cost.

    First, Swanson...

    Swanson is currently controlled as follows:

    2018 (24) Pre-Arb
    2019 (25) Pre-Arb
    2020 (26) Arb 1
    2021 (27) Arb 2
    2022 (28) Arb 3

    To estimate Swanson's Arb salaries, we can look to Brandon Crawford. He was paid $3M, $6M and $8M from 2015-2017. Adding a bit of inflation, we can probably assume Swanson's likely cost for his 3 Arb seasons will be ~$20M.

    Players like Swanson (already rich due to signing bonus) want to hit FA at age 30, so he is only likely to sign away 1 FA year in exchange for the Braves guaranteeing his Arb seasons. Again, Crawford's $15M plus some inflation sounds about right.

    This brings the Swanson extension to 6 years for ~$40M, giving the Braves control of his entire 20s.

    Next, Albies, is currently controlled as follows:

    2018 (21) Pre-Arb
    2019 (22) Pre-Arb
    2020 (23) Pre-Arb
    2021 (24) Arb 1
    2022 (25) Arb 2
    2023 (26) Arb 3

    I would expect Albies to cost about the same through his Arb years as Swanson. He is a better player, but he will be signing 1 year earlier. Those 2 factors should keep him in the $20M range for his 3 Arb years.

    The FA years is where the Braves can get creative. We saw the Rays get a very good deal with Longoria with a very early extension. I would look for something similar with Albies. Offer him 6/25 (which includes a $2M signing bonus) with 1-3 option years valued at $15M each tacked on at the end, each with a $5M buyout. That guarantees Albies $30M, gets him some cash up front he never got when he signed, and allows him to still become a FA before his age 30 season (how young he is depending on how many options the Braves get him to agree to).

    In both cases the Braves are giving the player a guaranteed small fortune in exchange for some cheaper control over their FA years. The Braves will take on this added risk to control their middle infield through the bulk of their peak years.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 09-03-2017 at 11:15 PM.

  2. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Enscheff For This Useful Post:

    JohnAdcox (09-04-2017), jpx7 (09-04-2017), Managuarantano's Volunteers (09-04-2017), NYCBrave (09-04-2017)

  3. #2
    It's OVER 5,000! msstate7's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Posts
    37,264
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    404
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,296
    Thanked in
    3,676 Posts
    Swanson's struggles this season could work in our favor in this case.

    I agree. We should lock both up if possible

  4. The Following User Says Thank You to msstate7 For This Useful Post:

    JohnAdcox (09-04-2017)

  5. #3
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,579
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,179
    Thanked in
    3,898 Posts
    Looks good to me. This better be the braves plan and I hope each player plays along.

  6. #4
    Arizona Fall Leaguer Tino25Dynasty's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    150
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    4
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    31
    Thanked in
    22 Posts
    Uh, lets let'em get a full season in the majors first.... In Swanson's case, at least a full DECENT year in the majors.

    The Bravos know when to sign'em long term. They did it with Julio, McCann, Freeman, and Simmons.

  7. The Following User Says Thank You to Tino25Dynasty For This Useful Post:

    buck75 (01-03-2018)

  8. #5
    Called Up to the Major Leagues
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,007
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    932
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    425
    Thanked in
    300 Posts
    Which ever way the wind blows. Weren't you clowns all ready to toss Swanson on the trash heap just a couple weeks ago?

  9. #6
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    At the time he signed his deal (November 2015), Crawford had put up a total of 12 WAR over slightly more than 4 seasons (including a 4 win season in 2015). So far for Swanson it is just 1 WAR over 1 season. Doesn't seem like a good comp to me for deciding what kind of extension we should offer Swanson.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-04-2017 at 08:38 AM.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  10. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to nsacpi For This Useful Post:

    Braves1976 (01-19-2018), jpx7 (09-04-2017), The Chosen One (09-04-2017)

  11. #7
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Tino25Dynasty View Post
    Uh, lets let'em get a full season in the majors first.... In Swanson's case, at least a full DECENT year in the majors.

    The Bravos know when to sign'em long term. They did it with Julio, McCann, Freeman, and Simmons.
    Until he puts up a season at 2 WAR, I would not offer him a contract that valued him as such. But I am willing to do a deal that values him at 1 WAR per season. I have some doubts he and his agent would have interest in that.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  12. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to nsacpi For This Useful Post:

    buck75 (01-03-2018), jpx7 (09-04-2017), weso1 (09-04-2017)

  13. #8
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,669
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Tino25Dynasty View Post
    Uh, lets let'em get a full season in the majors first.... In Swanson's case, at least a full DECENT year in the majors.

    The Bravos know when to sign'em long term. They did it with Julio, McCann, Freeman, and Simmons.
    That was a different GM. We don't know if the current FO knows how to do this or not.

  14. #9
    Awaiting a Promotion chipchildress's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    570
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    133
    Thanked in
    98 Posts
    it'll be hilarious when in the long run the early promotion of swanson actually ends up meaning the braves saving money.

  15. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to chipchildress For This Useful Post:

    Freshmaker (09-04-2017), Knucksie (09-04-2017)

  16. #10
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    7,772
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    270
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,491
    Thanked in
    1,150 Posts
    The best part of young players is you pay them significantly less than they are worth and bear relatively little risk of their flaming out.

    Extending a young player decreases the value to the team and increases risk at the gain of longer control.

    The only way that makes a ton of sense is that you are very sure that the value at the end of the deal is worth the control and you are either getting a fair price or a discount for it.

    It is a nice budgeting tool and it is a way to gamble on value plays.

    But it does have to be balanced against things like: is this player really someone that is particularly special and how likely are we to produce and equally good and cheaper player to replace him internally? And of course, are we sure this player is good.

    I'm in no hurry to get around to those extensions for Swanson and Albies.

  17. #11
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,669
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by chipchildress View Post
    it'll be hilarious when in the long run the early promotion of swanson actually ends up meaning the braves saving money.
    There is really no way that is going to happen unless Swanson's camp signs some ridiculous hometown discount. If Swanson is at a minimum 2-3 WAR player he is going to cost the Braves an extra 10 million in salary for his age 29 season (if he is extended). No other way around that really.

  18. #12
    Awaiting a Promotion chipchildress's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    570
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    133
    Thanked in
    98 Posts
    and you'd better have room in the budget in two years to sign acuna to a monster contract as well.

  19. #13
    Awaiting a Promotion chipchildress's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    570
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    133
    Thanked in
    98 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    There is really no way that is going to happen unless Swanson's camp signs some ridiculous hometown discount. If Swanson is at a minimum 2-3 WAR player he is going to cost the Braves an extra 10 million in salary for his age 29 season (if he is extended). No other way around that really.
    there's no way to know what kind of extension he might sign.


    frankly, if there was EVER a player that would sign a nice discount, it stands to reason it would be swanson. it's also just as possible that his camp values how the braves have handled him and would most certainly be willing to sacrifice some dollars in exchange for all that comes with being the face of the braves, playing in your home suburb. who knows...
    Last edited by chipchildress; 09-04-2017 at 10:00 AM.

  20. #14
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    7,772
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    270
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,491
    Thanked in
    1,150 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by chipchildress View Post
    and you'd better have room in the budget in two years to sign acuna to a monster contract as well.
    That seems like a extension that really might make sense. Still, I would want to see him crush at the MLB level before I thought about it.

  21. #15
    It's OVER 5,000! msstate7's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Posts
    37,264
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    404
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,296
    Thanked in
    3,676 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    Which ever way the wind blows. Weren't you clowns all ready to toss Swanson on the trash heap just a couple weeks ago?
    This clown never jumped off the Swanson bandwagon. Heck, I've been driving it all along and never wavered.

  22. #16
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,669
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by chipchildress View Post
    there's no way to know what kind of extension he might sign.
    I expect him to sign an extension that compares to what other people sign relative to his ability. An extension will have his 3 arby years based on the 20/40/60 scale that players get by going to arbitration and then any FA years will be based on the market value. Sometimes the first FA year is somewhat discounted as well if it's a long extension and sometimes it's not. So by using that basic logic we can see that any kind of extension right now has Swanson's age 29 season being based on his market value instead of his arb 3 year. That's a significant difference in terms of salary. Especially for a mid market team like Atlanta. Swanson also isn't likely to sign a super long extension either. I think he would only do 1 or 2 years max. He's going to want to hit FA somewhat still in his prime for obvious reasons. With him going to college he was always a prime candidate to let walk after his first 6 years anyways and the Braves decided to short change themselves one season for whatever reason.

  23. #17
    10 yr, $185 million Extension
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    4,760
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    4
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    981
    Thanked in
    766 Posts
    I think you extend them now. IF you can get them for that cheap then you do it.

    FA price is what, 7 million per WAR? That's only going to go up. I think if you are paying these guys 10 million or less then you are not over paying them.

    I think you are right about what is reasonable.

    I'd shoot the moon and offer 10 year deals to both. Yes that is a long time. But I'd lock them up now. I don't think there is anyone worth signing in the FA classes now. We have cheap labor coming into the team from the farm.

    Swanson might go for a cheap deal. He got number 1 pick money but he's a hometown guy. IF he gets 10 years and 100 million he's got 100 million. If he's good he has the looks and the story to make hundreds of millions off the field.
    Albies signed for 300K. He'd have to turn down the big number from me before I gave him that little deal.

    It would never happen in real life but I'd do 10/100 for both and I'd pay them 10 starting next year. I think that is going to be a deal with baseball inflation. Maybe you would take money out of the first two years while we pay for kemp and put them on the back end.

    10/100 with two team options at 25 million each. If they perform they get 12/150 and they still are not that old. I'd make them turn that down.

    But that's now how teams operate. They do the escalating deals and I don't get it. I think Swanson will be worth 1.5 WAR or more next year and be solid at 10 million. If he stinks I'd rather get some of that money off the books early when we suck.

  24. #18
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    7,772
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    270
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,491
    Thanked in
    1,150 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    I think you extend them now. IF you can get them for that cheap then you do it.

    FA price is what, 7 million per WAR? That's only going to go up. I think if you are paying these guys 10 million or less then you are not over paying them.

    I think you are right about what is reasonable.

    I'd shoot the moon and offer 10 year deals to both. Yes that is a long time. But I'd lock them up now. I don't think there is anyone worth signing in the FA classes now. We have cheap labor coming into the team from the farm.

    Swanson might go for a cheap deal. He got number 1 pick money but he's a hometown guy. IF he gets 10 years and 100 million he's got 100 million. If he's good he has the looks and the story to make hundreds of millions off the field.
    Albies signed for 300K. He'd have to turn down the big number from me before I gave him that little deal.

    It would never happen in real life but I'd do 10/100 for both and I'd pay them 10 starting next year. I think that is going to be a deal with baseball inflation. Maybe you would take money out of the first two years while we pay for kemp and put them on the back end.

    10/100 with two team options at 25 million each. If they perform they get 12/150 and they still are not that old. I'd make them turn that down.

    But that's now how teams operate. They do the escalating deals and I don't get it. I think Swanson will be worth 1.5 WAR or more next year and be solid at 10 million. If he stinks I'd rather get some of that money off the books early when we suck.
    I would not give a ten year guaranteed deal to a guy that has a 71 wRC+. Maybe you should, but I wouldn't.

  25. #19
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    The Braves aren't going to extend Swanson if he starts producing like Brandon Crawford because he will no longer have the incentive to extend.

    Folks can argue whether or not extensions are wise now for these players, but what I outlined is what it will cost.

  26. #20
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,669
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I would not give a ten year guaranteed deal to a guy that has a 71 wRC+. Maybe you should, but I wouldn't.
    Swanson has produced 1.1 fWAR in a years worth of games in his career. 10 million a year for 1 WAR is going to be a bargain on the back half of that 10 year contract

Similar Threads

  1. Extending Albies
    By Enscheff in forum Extented Spring Training
    Replies: 24
    Last Post: 04-03-2019, 06:37 AM
  2. Swanson In, Albies Out
    By clvclv in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 06-29-2016, 08:32 PM
  3. Swanson and Albies
    By Preacher in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 46
    Last Post: 05-10-2016, 03:43 PM
  4. ALBIES AND SWANSON!!!!!!
    By bravescountry in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 94
    Last Post: 05-03-2016, 12:59 PM
  5. Coppy on Swanson and Albies
    By nsacpi in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 03-01-2016, 04:26 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •