Analyzing Gohara's Stuff

[Enscheff]

Statcast data won't be available until tomorrow morning, but I wanted to do a brain dump based on the eye test before seeing any data biases.

Fastball: seemed to average ~96, which is 70 velocity. I would grade it 60 if it is straight like Fried's, 65 if it moves like Newk's, and a 70 if it moves better. Right now I'll say average movement which makes it a 65 pitch.

Slider: he seemed to throw 2 variations, a good one at 85-87, and a bad one around 82-83. If statcast doesn't see them as 2 different pitches the numbers will be skewed a bit by the bad ones. The good one looks to be plus, but a notch below Andrew Miller. Easy 60/65 on that pitch, closer to 65.

Change: not good. He seems to throw it too hard, but it appears to have decent movement. I'll give it a 40, barely useable.

Command: was 50 at the start, but fell to 40 or worse after about 60 pitches. This tells me conditioning is a problem. I'd hang a 45 on it now, but could be average or better as he matures and builds stamina due to the ease and balance in his delivery.

Overall: if he remains a 2 pitch guy with stamina issues he is an elite BP arm. Think along the lines of a LHed Kimbrel.

[Enscheff]

Reserved

[Enscheff]

Statcast data is up.

FF: 96.8 MPH, 7.1x, 9.0z

That FF velo is a 70+ for a LHer (they throw ~1 MPH slower than RHers overall), and would make Gohara the hardest throwing LHed SP in the game if he were to maintain it over a full season. It has average rise, and above average horizontal movement. I have no problem calling that pitch a 70 based on last night, but it will likely settle in as a 65 over the course of a full season. Still, this is the best fastball currently on the Braves roster. This pitch is as advertised.

SL: 84.4 MPH, -1.9x, 0.3Z

Good velo, above average tilt and sink. Overall, this is a 60 pitch. However, we saw him throw good ones at 85-87, and bad ones at 82-83. The good ones were really good, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him refine his slider a bit and make it a 65+ pitch.

CH: 89.4 MPH, 9.7x, 8.0z

This pitch has some good fade, but it is a disaster overall. It's too hard (delta is 7.4 MPH, average is about 9), and it has almost zero sink. I would say it's a 35/40 and almost unusable in it's current form.

Command: We obviously saw poor command last night, especially when he tired after about 60 pitches. His motion looks easy and balanced, and he seems like a decent athlete for his size, so I have no problem putting a future 50+ on his command.

Overall: Gohara has 2 plus to plus/plus pitches. He has an awful change. He appears to have stamina issues. That profile screams elite high leverage BP arm.

If he can dial in the control (I think he will), improves the change a bit (somewhat likely for a 21 year old), or scraps the change all together, and improve his stamina (something that should not be an issue for a professional athlete, but may be in Gohara's case), he has the makings of a 2-pitch 3+ WAR SP. If his command gets better than average, and/or his change improves into an average pitch, his ceiling is even higher.

I still think he is destined to be the next elite young closer though. And by elite I mean Kimbrel/Jansen territory.

[msstate7]

So another guy that needs a changeup. How realistic is it for a pitcher at MLB level/AAA to pick up a pitch that's usable at that level?

Could a cutter be a pitch that helps these guys?

How did colon make it so long with essentially 1 pitch?

[Enscheff]

So another guy that needs a changeup. How realistic is it for a pitcher at MLB level/AAA to pick up a pitch that's usable at that level?

Could a cutter be a pitch that helps these guys?

How did colon make it so long with essentially 1 pitch?

Colon developed elite command. By elite, I mean best in the game.

Using BB/9 as a proxy, I grade command as follows:

80 - 1.5
70 - 2.0
60 - 2.5
50 - 3.0
40 - 4.0 (worst SP)
30 - 5.0
20 - 6.0 (worst BP arm)

From 2012 to 2016 Colon ranged from 1.1 to 1.5. That's 5 years in a row of 80 grade control.

Then he gets to Atlanta and his rate jumps to 2.9, which is average, but average command won't work with that type of stuff.

Now with the Twins he is back down to 1.6, fringe 80 grade command, and is posting a 3.94 ERA in the AL.

[nsacpi]

Gohara is 3 years younger than Newcomb and has more of a chance of finding that third pitch. I think both need to be given more time to develop as a starter. In the case of Newcomb, I want him in the major league rotation for at least 15 more starts next year. If the walk rate is still 5 per nine, then send him down to AAA. Give him the rest of the season there to throw lots of changeups and see what happens. Fallback is a move to the pen.

In the case of Gohara, I'm willing to invest more time to allow him to develop as a starter. I would send him to AAA at the start of 2018 and prioritize developing the change or some other third pitch.

I'd start 2018 with a major league rotation of: Dicky, Folty, Teheran, Newcomb, FA Signing (possibilities include Garcia, Lynn, Cobb, Cashner).

And a AAA rotation of: Gohara, Soroka, Allard, Fried and Sims.

[50PoundHead]

For all of the young guys who have debuted, command is going to be the key. Sims has borderline stuff (at least how it is being applied), but Newcomb and Gohara have the raw materials to succeed if they can tighten it up.

Gohara's main tools are ready, but those of us who feel these guys have been rushed somewhat probably have at least one point with Gohara. You don't learn a third pitch at the big league level without consistently getting the snot knocked out of you, so wouldn't it have made more sense to keep him in Mississippi to develop and solidify that instead of advancing him?

[nsacpi]

You don't learn a third pitch at the big league level without consistently getting the snot knocked out of you, so wouldn't it have made more sense to keep him in Mississippi to develop and solidify that instead of advancing him?

Your question answers itself. It makes sense for him to start 2018 in AAA.

[clvclv]

For all of the young guys who have debuted, command is going to be the key. Sims has borderline stuff (at least how it is being applied), but Newcomb and Gohara have the raw materials to succeed if they can tighten it up.

Gohara's main tools are ready, but those of us who feel these guys have been rushed somewhat probably have at least one point with Gohara. You don't learn a third pitch at the big league level without consistently getting the snot knocked out of you, so wouldn't it have made more sense to keep him in Mississippi to develop and solidify that instead of advancing him?

Certainly a valid point, but the counter is this...

Should you keep holding your best arms back hoping (with no guarantee, of course) that they're going to develop that third pitch like Folty or Newcomb, or Sims have?

Many others have pointed out many examples of guys who succeeded at the MLB level with two pitches. I'm certainly not expecting Folty/Newcomb/Gohara to be the next Randy Johnson, but letting them get the snot beat out of them at this level will at least make them understand the one thing it seems very few Pitchers learn until they get up here and experience that -

Throw quality strikes and stay out of the center of the plate or you're going to get embarrassed.

I think several of these guys - even including Folty - have that kind of stuff and are capable of learning to add a little. take a little off, and change sequence and location enough to be pretty successful. Getting up here and consistently being around veterans who have tinkered with grips to help with movement is at least as likely to help them "tighten up" as spending months throwing change after change in side sessions with minor league Pitching Instructors watching.

Obviously you have to have a better mix of veterans around than we currently do for that to be as effective possibly, but if you added a Cobb or someone rather than Dickey (and yes, possibly a different Pitching Coach), I'd almost be more comfortable with them taking their knocks up here for a season or so personally. We've heard Glavine and Smoltz say a million times how beneficial it was for them to learn through embarrassment during their first 30-40 starts.

JMO, though.

[nsacpi]

Should you keep holding your best arms back hoping (with no guarantee, of course) that they're going to develop that third pitch like Folty or Newcomb, or Sims have?

A good starter is worth 4 to 5 times as much as a good reliever. That's the answer. You give them every opportunity. The only constraints really to giving them opportunity as starters is exhaustion of options or the emergence of guys with better chances of making it as a starter. When that happens you move them to the pen.

Those contraints don't really apply yet. We can sign a veteran FA to round out the rotation in 2018 and give the five spots in AAA to Gohara, Soroka, Allard, Fried and Sims. If one of them breaks out we can always create the space in the major league rotation for him. It is not a difficult problem to solve.

There will always be some adjustment when guys hit the majors. But you want as much of their "learning" as possible to take place in the minors.

[Jaw]

I really don't understand how the top SP prospects are making it to Atlanta without a reliable third pitch. That seems like something they should be learning before they get to Mississippi and then developing a feel for in the upper minors.

Lucas Sims has been in this organization forever. Couldn't someone along the way teach the kid a reliable change-up? If not, couldn't someone have moved him to relief?

[nsacpi]

I really don't understand how the top SP prospects are making it to Atlanta without a reliable third pitch.

It is something I hope the FO is thinking hard about.

[Enscheff]

We already know the recipe for a 2-pitch guy to be a consistent 3+ win pitcher: 2 plus or better pitches, average or better control, and the stamina to toss 180+ innings.

We already know Gohara and Newk have the required 2 pitches.

We already know how rare it is for a 24 year old with 30 control to improve to average or better. Newk is not likely at all to become a good SP. As soon as the next wave is ready to debut Newk will most likely be moved to the BP.

Gohara can probably refine his control enough to be a 3 win guy. His issue will be stamina. If he can't get in shape he won't be a good SP, and should probably be moved to the BP where he can be an impact arm.

[Russ2dollas]

We already know the recipe for a 2-pitch guy to be a consistent 3+ win pitcher: 2 plus or better pitches, average or better control, and the stamina to toss 180+ innings.

We already know Gohara and Newk have the required 2 pitches.

We already know how rare it is for a 24 year old with 30 control to improve to average or better. Newk is not likely at all to become a good SP. As soon as the next wave is ready to debut Newk will most likely be moved to the BP.

Gohara can probably refine his control enough to be a 3 win guy. His issue will be stamina. If he can't get in shape he won't be a good SP, and should probably be moved to the BP where he can be an impact arm.

Newk + Gohara +Weigel + Minter could be a NASTY pen.

My guess is Gohara gets the rio ruiz body speech and if he shows up w/o cleaning that up they think real hard about him in the pen.

[clvclv]

A good starter is worth 4 to 5 times as much as a good reliever. That's the answer. You give them every opportunity. The only constraints really to giving them opportunity as starters is exhaustion of options or the emergence of guys with better chances of making it as a starter. When that happens you move them to the pen.

Those contraints don't really apply yet. We can sign a veteran FA to round out the rotation in 2018 and give the five spots in AAA to Gohara, Soroka, Allard, Fried and Sims. If one of them breaks out we can always create the space in the major league rotation for him. It is not a difficult problem to solve.

There will always be some adjustment when guys hit the majors. But you want as much of their "learning" as possible to take place in the minors.

I'm not in favor of rushing everyone that at least 2 good offerings, and definitely don't think it needs to be an organizational philosophy - and certainly didn't expect it to be taken that way.

There's no doubt that the vast majority of these guys need to be moved at a slower pace and to focus much more on developing that third pitch. I'm only really referring to that handful that have the stuff to be pretty successful with only two pitches because they're really good - and I wouldn't fuss if that list was reduced to two (Folty and Gohara) and Newcomb were taken off. I do think Newcomb's hook is good enough that he could make it as a two-pitch guy, but his control and location still look like it needs as much (if not more) work than Folty's did when he was originally promoted.

If Folty didn't have that .10 head and wouldn't sulk EVERY time something doesn't go his way, I really do think his stuff is good enough that if someone could just give him a slight grip adjustment that he could apply to give him that cut-fastball look, he's more than good enough to do it. We obviously need to see a bit more, but I feel like Gohara's stuff is good enough as well. When dealing with those types of REAL power guys (that the Braves have never really had to be honest), rarely do you see them spending huge amounts of development time trying to work on a changeup that is probably harder for them to actually develop a feel for than something else they can throw hard with a little different movement than their four-seamer. Ryan didn't throw it (changeup) much until he'd been in the league for 15 years or so.

Again - I'm not dumb enough to say Folty or Gohara will ever measure-up to those names, just pointing out that they have the stuff to actually be successful without that third pitch unlike pretty much everyone else.

[nsacpi]

Again - I'm not dumb enough to say Folty or Gohara will ever measure-up to those names, just pointing out that they have the stuff to actually be successful without that third pitch unlike pretty much everyone else.

Folty has a total of 49 starts in AA and AAA. That's a good number. Gohara has 18. Big difference between how much "learning" Folty was allowed to do in the upper minors and what Gohara has done so far.

[clvclv]

Folty has a total of 49 starts in AA and AAA. That's a good number. Gohara has 18. Big difference between how much "learning" Folty was allowed to do in the upper minors and what Gohara has done so far.

And for all that "learning" Folty did over those extra 31 starts, he's a 23-23 Pitcher with a 4.85 ERA, 1.468 WHIP, and he gives up 10.1 hits and 1.4 HRs per 9 IP.

Your point?

Randy Johnson began to "figure it out" at Folty's age, but he walked 96 guys in 160.2 IP. Nolan Ryan walked 157 batters in 284 IP at that age, and walked 116 guys in 152 IP the season before.

Folty's problem is he STILL has no clue where it's going when he lets it go - fastball, breaking ball OR change - trying to make him throw that third pitch just complicates things. We've seen him be absolutely dominant when you don't ask him to do something he's not good at, why keep doing it??? It just makes things harder for him, and the game's already hard enough without doing that.

[Enscheff]

Statcast data is up.

FF: 96.8 MPH, 7.1x, 9.0z

That FF velo is a 70+ for a LHer (they throw ~1 MPH slower than RHers overall), and would make Gohara the hardest throwing LHed SP in the game if he were to maintain it over a full season. It has average rise, and above average horizontal movement. I have no problem calling that pitch a 70 based on last night, but it will likely settle in as a 65 over the course of a full season. Still, this is the best fastball currently on the Braves roster. This pitch is as advertised.

SL: 84.4 MPH, -1.9x, 0.3Z

Good velo, above average tilt and sink. Overall, this is a 60 pitch. However, we saw him throw good ones at 85-87, and bad ones at 82-83. The good ones were really good, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him refine his slider a bit and make it a 65+ pitch.

CH: 89.4 MPH, 9.7x, 8.0z

This pitch has some good fade, but it is a disaster overall. It's too hard (delta is 7.4 MPH, average is about 9), and it has almost zero sink. I would say it's a 35/40 and almost unusable in it's current form.

Command: We obviously saw poor command last night, especially when he tired after about 60 pitches. His motion looks easy and balanced, and he seems like a decent athlete for his size, so I have no problem putting a future 50+ on his command.

Overall: Gohara has 2 plus to plus/plus pitches. He has an awful change. He appears to have stamina issues. That profile screams elite high leverage BP arm.

If he can dial in the control (I think he will), improves the change a bit (somewhat likely for a 21 year old), or scraps the change all together, and improve his stamina (something that should not be an issue for a professional athlete, but may be in Gohara's case), he has the makings of a 2-pitch 3+ WAR SP. If his command gets better than average, and/or his change improves into an average pitch, his ceiling is even higher.

I still think he is destined to be the next elite young closer though. And by elite I mean Kimbrel/Jansen territory.

In his 2nd start Gohara maintained the velo and movement on his FA. This is a legit 70 pitch, the likes of which is usually only seen out of the BP. It would be the best FA of any current qualified LHed MLB SP. This is a pitch worth getting excited about.

I am still convinced he is throwing 2 different sliders, one at 82-83 and one at 86-87. Statcast is lumping them all together into a pitch that is merely above average, but it looks like he is trying to throw both a CU and a SL. I think I would like to see him focus on one of them, but maybe he can have success varying the speed and movement of the pitch.

The best news from last night was the CH. He threw it 14 times (all vs RHers), which is great news. It was 2 MPH softer than it was in his first start, which is great news. It still moves exactly like his FA, which isn't great news. All in all, that was a very good sign from Gohara.

We just saw what Gohara can be with good control and a CH that verges on usable. The pitcher we saw last night is a guy who can legitimately be discussed as a TOR contender if the command stays consistent.

[steveAKAslick]

In his 2nd start Gohara maintained the velo and movement on his FA. This is a legit 70 pitch, the likes of which is usually only seen out of the BP. It would be the best FA of any current qualified LHed MLB SP. This is a pitch worth getting excited about.

I am still convinced he is throwing 2 different sliders, one at 82-83 and one at 86-87. Statcast is lumping them all together into a pitch that is merely above average, but it looks like he is trying to throw both a CU and a SL. I think I would like to see him focus on one of them.

The best news from last night was the CH. He threw it 14 times last night (all vs RHers), which is great news. It was 2 MPH softer than it was in his first start, which is great news. It still moves exactly like his FA, which isn't great news. All in all, that was a very good sign from Gohara.

We just saw what Gohara can be with good control and a CH that verges on usable. The pitcher we saw last night is a guy who can legitimately be discussed as a TOR contender if the command stays consistent.

Last nights start was impressive that's for damn sure...he throws that FB so smoothly and without hardly any effort it seems

One of the Mariners twitter pages certainly looks foolish, was stupid to even say after one start...

@LookoutLanding
Luiz Gohara basically got the Mariners Shae Simmons, and after seeing both in MLB action, I think there's a possibility that trade's a push

[bravesfanMatt]

In his 2nd start Gohara maintained the velo and movement on his FA. This is a legit 70 pitch, the likes of which is usually only seen out of the BP. It would be the best FA of any current qualified LHed MLB SP. This is a pitch worth getting excited about.

I am still convinced he is throwing 2 different sliders, one at 82-83 and one at 86-87. Statcast is lumping them all together into a pitch that is merely above average, but it looks like he is trying to throw both a CU and a SL. I think I would like to see him focus on one of them.

The best news from last night was the CH. He threw it 14 times last night (all vs RHers), which is great news. It was 2 MPH softer than it was in his first start, which is great news. It still moves exactly like his FA, which isn't great news. All in all, that was a very good sign from Gohara.

We just saw what Gohara can be with good control and a CH that verges on usable. The pitcher we saw last night is a guy who can legitimately be discussed as a TOR contender if the command stays consistent.

you could argue, he should have shut the gNats out last night. a Competent LF and some veteran focus could have prevented both runs that did score. I am still excited about gohard just for the fact that his floor is so high. His biggest issue imo, is his injury track record and staying in shape.