Analyzing Gohara's Stuff

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

This is certainly the argument (that, along with reduced injury risk), but are we sure it's accurate? David Wells was a workhorse into his late 30s, and C.C. Sabathia has been one of the most strong, stable workhorses of this era.

Of course, they could be exceptions, but do we have a lot of examples to show either way? On some level, additional size is thought to help stamina.

That's what I was thinking. Legit agree with thethe here as long as Gohara has a half decent diet (not cake and Coke for every meal, just some).

[Enscheff]

What is your opinion of that second breaking pitch that he seems to be throwing? I guess its kind of a "curveball" but on TV it just kinda looks like he slows down his slider. I'm really not a fan of it and kind hopes he sticks to the harder slider while working on developing the changeup.

I do not pretend to be able to accurately judge pitches based on the "eye test". While I think it's clear Gohara throws a slider at ~82 and another at ~86, Statcast lumps them all together and calls it a slider at 84. The composite numbers on that pitch still grade out as plus.

I wish Statcast would differentiate between the 2 pitches so I could analyze each one separately though. The fact it doesn't tells me those pitches are so similar it isn't beneficial to throw both of them.

My "eye test" tells me the pitch at 82 is inferior, but until I see actual data I'm not willing to make that kind of statement. The "eye test" is a terrible way to judge players, even if it's my eyes doing the testing.

[Enscheff]

I'm not at all worried about the velocity. It's an extremely small sample size, it's likely skewed by the fact that Gohara was amped up his first couple games, and velocity will vary from start to start.

That being said, I don't see any reason to start Gohara again this year. The season's over, he's gotten his feet wet, go ahead and limit his innings.

Gohara has thrown a few hundred pitches. It is no longer a small sample size.

If he is "really" a 94 MPH pitcher...that's a lot different outlook than 97.

[Enscheff]

I think the argument is a little less weight might improve his stamina.

Yeah, I think folks just equate slim with stamina. I've tried to be careful to differentiate between the two when talking about Gohara.

They usually correlate, but several pitchers have shown they can toss 200+ innings while being embarrassed to take their shirts off at the pool.

[USMA76]

Didn't David Wells pitch a no-hiiter while soused? Based on that, let's just feed Gohara donuts, burgers, booze, and ready the trophy case for several Cy Young awards.

Seriously, for those that want to compare Gohara to Wells, Sabathia, and Colon--how many of those guys were as chubby as Gohara when they were 20 years old? I simply can't imagine that Gohara wouldn't benefit (both as a pitcher and from a health perspective) if he got into better shape.

That said, I'm reminded of the famous words of John Kruk, "I ain't no athlete, lady, I'm a ballplayer."

[JxnMissFan]

Gohara has thrown a few hundred pitches. It is no longer a small sample size.

If he is "really" a 94 MPH pitcher...that's a lot different outlook than 97.

Could the decrease be due to throwing more 2 seamers instead of 4 seamers? Does he throw both grips.

[nsacpi]

This is certainly the argument (that, along with reduced injury risk), but are we sure it's accurate? David Wells was a workhorse into his late 30s, and C.C. Sabathia has been one of the most strong, stable workhorses of this era.

Of course, they could be exceptions, but do we have a lot of examples to show either way? On some level, additional size is thought to help stamina.

Colon and Harang were also yuge and durable

[weso1]

You can still have good stamina whilest being fat. At my fattest I was jogging three miles every other day. I'm sexy as hell now, but haven't been jogging as much and couldn't make it maybe even halfway. Plus with pitching, you get tons of breaks. To me it's more about the arm when it comes to stamina.

[thethe]

I so often disagree with thethe that I must highlight my agreement here. I'm not sure how making Gohara skinnier will make him better.

Love this response. I'd like to think we'd get along real well if we met in person. Good day to you sir.

[striker42]

Gohara has thrown a few hundred pitches. It is no longer a small sample size.

If he is "really" a 94 MPH pitcher...that's a lot different outlook than 97.

Except that velocity varies from start to start.

[Russ2dollas]

Klaw in chat yesterday called gohara a top end starter

[msstate7]

Klaw in chat yesterday called gohara a top end starter

Assuming he’s right, this rebuild is a success

[thethe]

Assuming he’s right, this rebuild is a success

There is a lot more on the farm as well.

[msstate7]

There is a lot more on the farm as well.

Yep. That was kinda my point. If gohara is TOR, we have enough good arms to fill out a good mlb staff

[Julio3000]

Love this response. I'd like to think we'd get along real well if we met in person. Good day to you sir.

Haha, I'm certain we would.

[Enscheff]

Gohara averaged 97.8 mph on the fastball last night. That is absurd velocity for a SP.

He is already a 2-pitch #3.

Keep working on the change. Keeping working on stamina to maintain control beyond the 60 pitch mark.

Ace is his realistic upside depending on how much he improves in those areas. He is young enough that he has a legit chance at it.

[TheBravos]

I think having his work load more than doubled this year might have something to do with stamina also. He seems to be a competitive guy. I think he’ll do what it takes. He’s only 20 and has really pitched as good or better than anyone on our staff. He has ace stuff, but either way will be the best pitcher on our team next year unless Folty or Newk make big strides (keep in mind they are many years older also). It’s like comparing Ozzie to Dansby. Ozzie is better, but when you compare ages...he’s WAY better.

[Enscheff]

xwOBA agree she that Gohara is the best Braves SP. Here are all pitchers with 100+ ABs ranked (0.320 is average):

1 Sam Freeman 70.409 for 254 0.277
2 Luiz Gohara 34.966 for 123 0.284
3 Arodys Vizcaino 67.848 for 232 0.292
4 Jaime Garcia 143.714 for 474 0.303
5 Jim Johnson 77.822 for 249 0.313
6 Jose Ramirez 80.893 for 258 0.314
7 R.A. Dickey 257.727 for 815 0.316
8 Julio Teheran 259.664 for 812 0.320
9 Lucas Sims 77.179 for 239 0.323
10 Sean Newcomb 149.054 for 456 0.327
11 Mike Foltynewicz 226.068 for 692 0.327
12 Ian Krol 69.576 for 207 0.336
13 Jason Motte 55.401 for 164 0.338
14 Luke Jackson 74.557 for 211 0.353
15 Bartolo Colon 105.716 for 299 0.354
16 Matt Wisler 54.577 for 146 0.374

Fried just missed the cut off, but is at 0.363

[nsacpi]

14 Luke Jackson 74.557 for 211 0.353
15 Bartolo Colon 105.716 for 299 0.354
16 Matt Wisler 54.577 for 146 0.374

Fried just missed the cut off, but is at 0.363

And some people want to pencil Fried in next year's rotation.

[msstate7]

And some people want to pencil Fried in next year's rotation.

I wasn’t one of them, but fried still hasn’t had 100 ABs at this level. I think writing him off completely is premature, but whatever