Analyzing Gohara's Stuff

[nsacpi]

fat is good

[Enscheff]

you could argue, he should have shut the gNats out last night. a Competent LF and some veteran focus could have prevented both runs that did score. I am still excited about gohard just for the fact that his floor is so high. His biggest issue imo, is his injury track record and staying in shape.

I don't put much stock into results when I'm evaluating players moving forward, so I don't care about how many runs he gave up. I'm looking for indications of true talent because I consider those to be better predictors of future success.

His (healthy) floor is an elite BP arm or 2-pitch #3/#4. His ceiling is what every pozzy Brave thinks it is.

Gohara is what we were told Newcomb was, but isn't.

[nsacpi]

I don't put much stock into results when I'm evaluating players moving forward, so I don't care about how many runs he gave up. I'm looking for indications of true talent because I consider those to be better predictors of future success.

His (healthy) floor is an elite BP arm or 2-pitch #3/#4. His ceiling is what every pozzy Brave thinks it is.

Gohara is what we were told Newcomb was, but isn't.

Gohara is to Newcomb as Albies is to Swanson

[Enscheff]

Gohara is to Newcomb as Albies is to Swanson

Haha, that's being pretty harsh to Swanson.

[Southcack77]

I don't put much stock into results when I'm evaluating players moving forward, so I don't care about how many runs he gave up. I'm looking for indications of true talent because I consider those to be better predictors of future success.

His (healthy) floor is an elite BP arm or 2-pitch #3/#4. His ceiling is what every pozzy Brave thinks it is.

Gohara is what we were told Newcomb was, but isn't.

The difference being a useable change and possibly better command?

I enjoy the pitch data showing the movement of pitches. Let me ask, is there some good work on the relationship between movement and pitch effectiveness. At a gut level it makes sense.

[Julio3000]

The difference being a useable change and possibly better command?

I enjoy the pitch data showing the movement of pitches. Let me ask, is there some good work on the relationship between movement and pitch effectiveness. At a gut level it makes sense.

Chill with the body-shaming microagressions.

[Russ2dollas]

you could argue, he should have shut the gNats out last night. a Competent LF and some veteran focus could have prevented both runs that did score. I am still excited about gohard just for the fact that his floor is so high. His biggest issue imo, is his injury track record and staying in shape.

I'd agree that with any decent LF and Ender in CF that the first run does not score at all.

Love the detail analysis on him.

I will be curious to see his shape next year. Clearly he is the favorite for the most "best shape of his life" stories in spring training. I doubt he's ever going to be an underwear model but now he has more money and time to focus on things. I wonder if the Braves will hook him up with some resources to improve in physical fitness area.

[Enscheff]

Gohara's average FA velocity over his 4 starts:

09-13 - 97.2 MPH
09-06 - 97.0 MPH
09-19 - 95.9 MPH
09-24 - 94.6 MPH

A 2.6 MPH drop over 4 games is something that should make the FO take notice. It's hard to say how much of the decline is due to him no longer being amped up, fatigue from the long season, or something more serious. It may also be a sign that stamina will be an issue for Gohara.

For example, it took Newk 15 MLB starts to lose 2.6 MPH off his FA this year. It took Folty 26 starts this year to lose 2.6 MPH.

Gohara has now pitched 2x the innings he did last year. His velocity is declining rapidly. He should be shut down.

[BeanieAntics]

Gohara's average FA velocity over his 4 starts:

09-13 - 97.2 MPH
09-06 - 97.0 MPH
09-19 - 95.9 MPH
09-24 - 94.6 MPH

A 2.6 MPH drop over 4 games is something that should make the FO take notice. It's hard to say how much of the decline is due to him no longer being amped up, fatigue from the long season, or something more serious. It may also be a sign that stamina will be an issue for Gohara.

For example, it took Newk 15 MLB starts to lose 2.6 MPH off his FA this year. It took Folty 26 starts this year to lose 2.6 MPH.

Gohara has now pitched 2x the innings he did last year. His velocity is declining rapidly. He should be shut down.

Yeah they shouldn't even consider giving him another start. This offseason I think it is imperative to get him into halfway decent shape. I think it will always be a problem for him, but outside of developing his changeup and command, conditioning will be one of the biggest factors determining whether or not he can reach his ceiling, which I think is ToR. But that is a really unlikely outcome if he can't retain his stuff better over an extended amount of time.

[Enscheff]

Yeah they shouldn't even consider giving him another start. This offseason I think it is imperative to get him into halfway decent shape. I think it will always be a problem for him, but outside of developing his changeup and command, conditioning will be one of the biggest factors determining whether or not he can reach his ceiling, which I think is ToR. But that is a really unlikely outcome if he can't retain his stuff better over an extended amount of time.

Right now, with no further improvements, Gohara is a LHed Archer (2-pitch 3 win SP)...if he builds the stamina to go 180+ innings.

Without the increased stamina he is a slightly lesser LHed Kimbrel (elite BP arm).

His increased workload this year is already well passed the typically allowed increase for a young pitcher. He needs to be shut down.

[thethe]

Why is there a rush for Gohara to get in shape. Is there any proven correlation between BMI and pitching performance?

[BeanieAntics]

Right now, with no further improvements, Gohara is a LHed Archer (2-pitch 3 win SP)...if he builds the stamina to go 180+ innings.

Without the increased stamina he is a slightly lesser LHed Kimbrel (elite BP arm).

His increased workload this year is already well passed the typically allowed increase for a young pitcher. He needs to be shut down.

What is your opinion of that second breaking pitch that he seems to be throwing? I guess its kind of a "curveball" but on TV it just kinda looks like he slows down his slider. I'm really not a fan of it and kind hopes he sticks to the harder slider while working on developing the changeup.

[BeanieAntics]

Why is there a rush for Gohara to get in shape. Is there any proven correlation between BMI and pitching performance?

No we are just fat shaming him.

[steveAKAslick]

2.90 FIP thru 4 starts....

that’s alright I’d say, I’m all for shutting him down just cause the rest of this season means nothing whatsoever but I don’t think it’s gonna effect him in the long run either way

[Julio3000]

Why is there a rush for Gohara to get in shape. Is there any proven correlation between BMI and pitching performance?

I so often disagree with thethe that I must highlight my agreement here. I'm not sure how making Gohara skinnier will make him better.

[msstate7]

I so often disagree with thethe that I must highlight my agreement here. I'm not sure how making Gohara skinnier will make him better.

Gohara's girth helps hide the ball longer, maybe lol

[mfree80]

I so often disagree with thethe that I must highlight my agreement here. I'm not sure how making Gohara skinnier will make him better.

I think the argument is a little less weight might improve his stamina.

[bravesfanMatt]

Skinner Gohard = less food at team buffet = more food for rest of team = team likes Gohard that much more = better play when Gohard on mound = better results.

come on guys, this ain't rocket surgery.

[smootness]

I think the argument is a little less weight might improve his stamina.

This is certainly the argument (that, along with reduced injury risk), but are we sure it's accurate? David Wells was a workhorse into his late 30s, and C.C. Sabathia has been one of the most strong, stable workhorses of this era.

Of course, they could be exceptions, but do we have a lot of examples to show either way? On some level, additional size is thought to help stamina.

[striker42]

I'm not at all worried about the velocity. It's an extremely small sample size, it's likely skewed by the fact that Gohara was amped up his first couple games, and velocity will vary from start to start.

That being said, I don't see any reason to start Gohara again this year. The season's over, he's gotten his feet wet, go ahead and limit his innings.