Baseball Think tank

[Horsehide Harry]

Given the relative isolated nature of this board and the somewhat relative exclusivity plus the general high level of baseball thinking that occurs it wouldn't surprise me to find out that someone from the Braves organization at least monitors the ongoings here.

We have our ups and downs, or levels of lunacy and brilliance but overall I think the baseball IQ is pretty high. We may slam each other, call each other names, LOL and point out fallacies and derangement. BUT, the parallel computing power of the minds posting here covers a lot of angles.

Obviously, a less isolated group than what we generally have would tend to dumb down out of the weight of sheer numbers and the predominance of the casual fan. But not here.

Government has the RAND Corporation, The Center for American Progress and the Cato Institute.

Why would a team like the Braves not use a Think Tank of their own, especially if it was unpaid and most importantly - unaware?

Obviously, I am being somewhat facetious here, but not completely. The reason is that one of the most dangerous things that can happen in any organization is that it saddles itself with blinders where the path followed is harrumphed along out of sheer inertia and self interest.

I don't think you would want to consult the average fan on the street because there would be no respect. However, the tradition of mad scientist has long been useful throughout history. And, if the mad scientist doesn't even know someone is looking over his shoulder, well, so much the better.

[CyYoung31]

Brian Jordan frequents these boards. Does that count?

[thewupk]

aj pierzynski too

[cajunrevenge]

I don't think there is any chance the Braves would visit this site for advanced stats. If they want it they have access to far more than we do. They hired someone from dangerous and I doubt it was for his scouting skills.



All these advanced stats are great but it's the interpretation that is the tricky part. The Olivera trade reeks of bad interpretation of surplus value.

[JxnMissFan]

The FO probably comes here to scoff. Most of the advanced stats here are posted to prove just a few points. Here's a sample

1. The FO rushes prospects
2. The FO mismanages service time
3. The FO inflates radar gun readings to hype prospects
4. All our pitching prospects only have two pitches and will be bullpen arms
5. Matt Kemp sucks
6. Player x has an unsustainable BABIP
7. HO trade was terrible
8. Kimberl trade was terrible
9. Neck signing was dumb
10. FO doesn't understand computer generated surplus value

Yeah the FO is hanging by thread waiting on what we have to say

[nsacpi]

Given the relative isolated nature of this board and the somewhat relative exclusivity plus the general high level of baseball thinking that occurs it wouldn't surprise me to find out that someone from the Braves organization at least monitors the ongoings here.

We have our ups and downs, or levels of lunacy and brilliance but overall I think the baseball IQ is pretty high. We may slam each other, call each other names, LOL and point out fallacies and derangement. BUT, the parallel computing power of the minds posting here covers a lot of angles.

Obviously, a less isolated group than what we generally have would tend to dumb down out of the weight of sheer numbers and the predominance of the casual fan. But not here.

Government has the RAND Corporation, The Center for American Progress and the Cato Institute.

Why would a team like the Braves not use a Think Tank of their own, especially if it was unpaid and most importantly - unaware?

Obviously, I am being somewhat facetious here, but not completely. The reason is that one of the most dangerous things that can happen in any organization is that it saddles itself with blinders where the path followed is harrumphed along out of sheer inertia and self interest.

I don't think you would want to consult the average fan on the street because there would be no respect. However, the tradition of mad scientist has long been useful throughout history. And, if the mad scientist doesn't even know someone is looking over his shoulder, well, so much the better.

I am aware of one NL team (not the Braves) that has a staffer prepare summaries of discussion board content.

[50PoundHead]

Given the relative isolated nature of this board and the somewhat relative exclusivity plus the general high level of baseball thinking that occurs it wouldn't surprise me to find out that someone from the Braves organization at least monitors the ongoings here.

We have our ups and downs, or levels of lunacy and brilliance but overall I think the baseball IQ is pretty high. We may slam each other, call each other names, LOL and point out fallacies and derangement. BUT, the parallel computing power of the minds posting here covers a lot of angles.

Obviously, a less isolated group than what we generally have would tend to dumb down out of the weight of sheer numbers and the predominance of the casual fan. But not here.

Government has the RAND Corporation, The Center for American Progress and the Cato Institute.

Why would a team like the Braves not use a Think Tank of their own, especially if it was unpaid and most importantly - unaware?

Obviously, I am being somewhat facetious here, but not completely. The reason is that one of the most dangerous things that can happen in any organization is that it saddles itself with blinders where the path followed is harrumphed along out of sheer inertia and self interest.

I don't think you would want to consult the average fan on the street because there would be no respect. However, the tradition of mad scientist has long been useful throughout history. And, if the mad scientist doesn't even know someone is looking over his shoulder, well, so much the better.

Groupthink can be a real problem and if there's one organization in baseball that is likely prone to that, it's probably the Braves given the longstanding presence of many of the high-ranking decisionmakers. I would guess that they probably plumb a number of outside sources for different angles, but if the information they gather is all dropped into the same equation, the ultimate decisions won't deviate that much from the organizational norm.

[MadduxFanII]

If we're a think tank, I want to be Senior Director of Tapping Dat Ass Studies.

[Horsehide Harry]

If we're a think tank, I want to be Senior Director of Tapping Dat Ass Studies.

You're approaching gold watch time in that job...

[50PoundHead]

If we're a think tank, I want to be Senior Director of Tapping Dat Ass Studies.

I think Harold Reynolds already has that position.

[Horsehide Harry]

Groupthink can be a real problem and if there's one organization in baseball that is likely prone to that, it's probably the Braves given the longstanding presence of many of the high-ranking decisionmakers. I would guess that they probably plumb a number of outside sources for different angles, but if the information they gather is all dropped into the same equation, the ultimate decisions won't deviate that much from the organizational norm.

True and why I think it's always important to test and review and not be afraid to be flexible in thinking even if committed to a path.

[Horsehide Harry]

I am aware of one NL team (not the Braves) that has a staffer prepare summaries of discussion board content.

I actually think this is smart. It provides a gauge of the temperature of the natives and alternative ideas even if most are crazy. It's free.

[Horsehide Harry]

The FO probably comes here to scoff. Most of the advanced stats here are posted to prove just a few points. Here's a sample

1. The FO rushes prospects
2. The FO mismanages service time
3. The FO inflates radar gun readings to hype prospects
4. All our pitching prospects only have two pitches and will be bullpen arms
5. Matt Kemp sucks
6. Player x has an unsustainable BABIP
7. HO trade was terrible
8. Kimberl trade was terrible
9. Neck signing was dumb
10. FO doesn't understand computer generated surplus value

Yeah the FO is hanging by thread waiting on what we have to say

And if they aren't having those discussions internally already then they would benefit greatly from seeing it as viewed from outside, even if they don't agree.

[Horsehide Harry]

I don't think there is any chance the Braves would visit this site for advanced stats. If they want it they have access to far more than we do. They hired someone from dangerous and I doubt it was for his scouting skills.



All these advanced stats are great but it's the interpretation that is the tricky part. The Olivera trade reeks of bad interpretation of surplus value.

It's not just advanced stats. It could be just thinking about the mechanics of the team or that of other teams. Sure, they probably have their own advanced stat guy. But, if you are an advanced stat guy who needs a job, needs to eat and pay bills, wants to remain and advance in the industry, are you more prone to provide data (even if it is just emphasized differently) that reinforces the prevailing thoughts of your bosses or are you likely to say "you guys are being idiots?"

This board and others like it doesn't have employment or anything else hanging over our head.

[nsacpi]

4. All our pitching prospects only have two pitches and will be bullpen arms

I think they could use a wake-up call on this one if they haven't already put it high on their list of items to look at. The Braves believe they are a gold standard organization. They moreover believe that developing pitchers is their great organizational strength. And on top of that they have emphasized the changeup more than most other organizations.

And yet we are seeing a flow of young pitchers into the majors with underdeveloped changeups. Maybe there are others like Allard and Soroka who are doing better in this department.

But I would say as an organization they need to look at why so many of their starting pitching prospects are reaching the majors without a third pitch they can throw with confidence.

[zitothebrave]

5. Matt Kemp sucks

Don't care to argue all the points. But this is certainly true. Kemp hits below average for a LF and fields well below average. A fielder of Kemp's inabilities has to hit a ton to be worth anything. His only season of true top notch play are well behind him. Since leaving the dodgers he's only been 5-10% better than league average. Which for a LF which is an offensive first position isn't particularly. good.

We can look at the stats, and Kemp's positional stats he's above average overall but a LF is supposed to be above average. For example, last year when he was at 109 wRC+ he was a net gain for his position as it was over what the average LF production. But this year at 105 it's well below.

[steveAKAslick]

Given the relative isolated nature of this board and the somewhat relative exclusivity plus the general high level of baseball thinking that occurs it wouldn't surprise me to find out that someone from the Braves organization at least monitors the ongoings here.

We have our ups and downs, or levels of lunacy and brilliance but overall I think the baseball IQ is pretty high. We may slam each other, call each other names, LOL and point out fallacies and derangement. BUT, the parallel computing power of the minds posting here covers a lot of angles.

Obviously, a less isolated group than what we generally have would tend to dumb down out of the weight of sheer numbers and the predominance of the casual fan. But not here.

Government has the RAND Corporation, The Center for American Progress and the Cato Institute.

Why would a team like the Braves not use a Think Tank of their own, especially if it was unpaid and most importantly - unaware?

Obviously, I am being somewhat facetious here, but not completely. The reason is that one of the most dangerous things that can happen in any organization is that it saddles itself with blinders where the path followed is harrumphed along out of sheer inertia and self interest.

I don't think you would want to consult the average fan on the street because there would be no respect. However, the tradition of mad scientist has long been useful throughout history. And, if the mad scientist doesn't even know someone is looking over his shoulder, well, so much the better.

Definetely more brilliant than the majority of Braves Twitter "fans"...I come here to wash off the stink

[Chico]

The problem with a lot of fans is that they speak in absolutes and most intelligent people ignore people who speak in absolutes.

[nsacpi]

The problem with a lot of fans is that they speak in absolutes and most intelligent people ignore people who speak in absolutes.

I think even people who speak in absolutes know they are speaking probabilistically. It is just a habit.

[Knucksie]

The FO probably comes here to scoff. Most of the advanced stats here are posted to prove just a few points. Here's a sample

1. The FO rushes prospects
2. The FO mismanages service time
3. The FO inflates radar gun readings to hype prospects
4. All our pitching prospects only have two pitches and will be bullpen arms
5. Matt Kemp sucks
6. Player x has an unsustainable BABIP
7. HO trade was terrible
8. Kimberl trade was terrible
9. Neck signing was dumb
10. FO doesn't understand computer generated surplus value

Yeah the FO is hanging by thread waiting on what we have to say

Post of the day!



Could also add:

11. Freeman and Inciarte should be traded.