What should our lineup look like next year?

[Horsehide Harry]

I think the offseason direction hinges on what the plan for 2018 is and has been. If 2018 is considered to be a continuing rebuilding year then the choice is pretty simple - keep Kemp, Markakis and Dickey, trade any or all at any time where you can get anything for them without having to give anything up including money. Use Acuna to supplement and eventually take over. Use the young pitchers to eventually move Dickey off if he's not traded. At 3B you go with Camargo and Ruiz platoon and put Riley on the watch list or start saving pennies for a run at Donaldson or Machado in the 18/19 offseason. This is also the static payroll scenario. However, if this was the intent all along, then it is clear that the Braves seriously mishandled the rebuild and should have moved Freeman, Teheran and not been so hung up about getting "close" talent in return for the divesting trades.

If 2018 is truly to be considered a real attempt at post season play then they can't go into the season with Kemp and Markakis on the corners. Currently Kemp has a BRwar of -1.2 and Markakis is at 0.5. Even with the good play of Ender, the OF is about the third worst in baseball. The 3b situation isn't much better. When you consider that it's unlikely that the catching platoon will be anywhere near next year what it was this year, then keeping 3B, RF and LF as is puts way too much pressure on 1B, 2B, SS and C to perform.

[Enscheff]

I think the offseason direction hinges on what the plan for 2018 is and has been. If 2018 is considered to be a continuing rebuilding year then the choice is pretty simple - keep Kemp, Markakis and Dickey, trade any or all at any time where you can get anything for them without having to give anything up including money. Use Acuna to supplement and eventually take over. Use the young pitchers to eventually move Dickey off if he's not traded. At 3B you go with Camargo and Ruiz platoon and put Riley on the watch list or start saving pennies for a run at Donaldson or Machado in the 18/19 offseason. This is also the static payroll scenario. However, if this was the intent all along, then it is clear that the Braves seriously mishandled the rebuild and should have moved Freeman, Teheran and not been so hung up about getting "close" talent in return for the divesting trades.

If 2018 is truly to be considered a real attempt at post season play then they can't go into the season with Kemp and Markakis on the corners. Currently Kemp has a BRwar of -1.2 and Markakis is at 0.5. Even with the good play of Ender, the OF is about the third worst in baseball. The 3b situation isn't much better. When you consider that it's unlikely that the catching platoon will be anywhere near next year what it was this year, then keeping 3B, RF and LF as is puts way too much pressure on 1B, 2B, SS and C to perform.

Yup. The Braves need to take one of 2 clearly defined paths. The worst course of action would be some combination of the those 2 paths.

[Enscheff]

This comment on the latest MLBTR chat is certainly interesting:

wesley
3:04 does 4 years 70 million get lance Lynn or alex cobb? both seem about the same earning potential wise this off season

Jeffrey Todd
3:04 I'm taking the under on both.

Everything else I read pegged Lynn around 5/90 and Cobb around 3/50.

If the Braves are "going for it" in 2018, Lynn at less than 4/70 is definitely something to consider.

[Enscheff]

I would not recommend "going for it" this offseason, but if the Braves do, here would be my "go for it" offseason plan:

1. Decline Dickey's option.
2. Sign Lynn for around 4/70 or Cobb for 3/50, whichever offers the best value.
3. DFA Kemp, or assume the Braves have to eat his entire contract.
4. Trade Markakis, assume the Braves have to eat about as much as they save in a Kemp trade.
5. Trade for Piscotty to play LF. He is having a down year due to poor luck. The last 3 seasons his xwOBA has been about .360, .345, .345, so he is hitting as good as ever. Piscotty is owed 6/46 or 5/32, which is probably a surplus value in the range of $90M. The Braves will have to pay in prospects accordingly.
6. Sign Todd Frazier for around 3/50.
7. Leave Acuna in AAA for a few weeks to start the season.

That leaves the Braves with the following 2018 roster after Acuna is promoted:

# Pos Player Salary WAR
1 C Flowers $4.00 4 (adding framing runs saved)
2 1B Freeman $21.00 6
3 2B Albies $0.55 4
4 3B Frazier $17.00 2.5
5 SS Swanson $0.55 2
6 LF Piscotty $1.33 2.5
7 CF Inciarte $4.70 3
8 RF Acuna $0.55 2

9 SP1 Teheran $8.00 2
10 SP2 Folty $4.00 2
11 SP3 Lynn/Cobb $18.00 3
12 SP4 Newk $0.55 2
13 SP5 Fried $0.55 2

14 BN1 M Adams $4.00 3
15 BN2 Camargo $0.55
16 BN3 Santana $1.00
17 BN4 L Adams $0.55
18 BN5 Sanchez $0.55

19 BP1 JJ $5.00 2
20 BP2 Viz $3.00
21 BP3 Freeman $0.55
22 BP4 Ramirez $0.55
23 BP5 Minter $0.55
24 BP6 Winkler $1.00
25 BP7 Wisler $0.55
Extra Kemp $18.25

Total $116.88 42

Assuming the bench provides 3 wins, and the BP provides 2 wins (double what they provided this year), 42 WAR + 48 puts the Braves right at the cusp of 90 wins in 2018 at a cost of $116M (which includes all of Kemp's salary).

If Newk or Folty is needed to acquire Piscotty, Gohara would slot into the rotation the first game a 5th SP is needed. Allard, Soroka, and Wright would be in AA/AAA ready to replace any SPs who falter.

[Southcack77]

I would not recommend "going for it" this offseason, but if the Braves do, here would be my "go for it" offseason plan:

1. Decline Dickey's option.
2. Sign Lynn for around 4/70 or Cobb for 3/50, whichever offers the best value.
3. DFA Kemp, or assume the Braves have to eat his entire contract.
4. Trade Markakis, assume the Braves have to eat about as much as they save in a Kemp trade.
5. Trade for Piscotty to play LF. He is having a down year due to poor luck. The last 3 seasons his xwOBA has been about .360, .345, .345, so he is hitting as good as ever. Piscotty is owed 6/46 or 5/32, which is probably a surplus value in the range of $90M. The Braves will have to pay in prospects accordingly.
6. Sign Todd Frazier for around 3/50.
7. Leave Acuna in AAA for a few weeks to start the season.

That leaves the Braves with the following 2018 roster after Acuna is promoted:

# Pos Player Salary WAR
1 C Flowers $4.00 4 (adding framing runs saved)
2 1B Freeman $21.00 6
3 2B Albies $0.55 4
4 3B Frazier $17.00 2.5
5 SS Swanson $0.55 2
6 LF Piscotty $1.33 2.5
7 CF Inciarte $4.70 3
8 RF Acuna $0.55 2

9 SP1 Teheran $8.00 2
10 SP2 Folty $4.00 2
11 SP3 Lynn/Cobb $18.00 3
12 SP4 Newk $0.55 2
13 SP5 Fried $0.55 2

14 BN1 M Adams $4.00 3
15 BN2 Camargo $0.55
16 BN3 Santana $1.00
17 BN4 L Adams $0.55
18 BN5 Sanchez $0.55

19 BP1 JJ $5.00 2
20 BP2 Viz $3.00
21 BP3 Freeman $0.55
22 BP4 Ramirez $0.55
23 BP5 Minter $0.55
24 BP6 Winkler $1.00
25 BP7 Wisler $0.55
Extra Kemp $18.25

Total $116.88 42

Assuming the bench provides 3 wins, and the BP provides 2 wins (double what they provided this year), 42 WAR + 48 puts the Braves right at the cusp of 90 wins in 2018 at a cost of $116M (which includes all of Kemp's salary).

If Newk or Folty is needed to acquire Piscotty, Gohara would slot into the rotation the first game a 5th SP is needed. Allard, Soroka, and Wright would be in AA/AAA ready to replace any SPs who falter.

Would not have guessed that they could do that under 120 million. Interesting post.

[Enscheff]

Would not have guessed that they could do that under 120 million. Interesting post.

The idea hinges on converting a lot of prospect capital into cheap OF production with Piscotty.

Approximately the same can be achieved by acquiring a more expensive but better LFer (like JD Martinez or JUp), and going with a Camargo/Ruiz platoon at 3B. It would probably also require getting rid of Matt Adams from the bench to save money. This route may actually be preferable.

[nsacpi]

The idea hinges on converting a lot of prospect capital into cheap OF production with Piscotty.

Approximately the same can be achieved by acquiring a more expensive but better LFer (like JD Martinez or JUp), and going with a Camargo/Ruiz platoon at 3B. It would probably also require getting rid of Matt Adams from the bench to save money. This route may actually be preferable.

I think what your exercise shows is the potential for growth once the dead weight at the corner outfield spots is replaced. And beyond 2018 this potential growth is greater as the Markakis and Kemp contracts expire.

[Chico]

I think what your exercise shows is the potential for growth once the dead weight at the corner outfield spots is replaced. And beyond 2018 this potential growth is greater as the Markakis and Kemp contracts expire.

We have a 3-4 year window before the youngsters start getting extensions and/or we're doling our arbitration salaries. I would not be surprised to see us acquire a SP, 3B, OF (if we mvoe on from both Kemp/Nick) and even a reliever or two on 3 year contracts or 4 if it's worth it. This will excite the fanbase to hopefully increase the gate and allow us to hold on to our prospects.

I know some will get upset and say we're "rushing the rebuild" but holding on to the prospects is the key.

[Hudson2]

I would not recommend "going for it" this offseason, but if the Braves do, here would be my "go for it" offseason plan:

1. Decline Dickey's option.
2. Sign Lynn for around 4/70 or Cobb for 3/50, whichever offers the best value.
3. DFA Kemp, or assume the Braves have to eat his entire contract.
4. Trade Markakis, assume the Braves have to eat about as much as they save in a Kemp trade.
5. Trade for Piscotty to play LF. He is having a down year due to poor luck. The last 3 seasons his xwOBA has been about .360, .345, .345, so he is hitting as good as ever. Piscotty is owed 6/46 or 5/32, which is probably a surplus value in the range of $90M. The Braves will have to pay in prospects accordingly.
6. Sign Todd Frazier for around 3/50.
7. Leave Acuna in AAA for a few weeks to start the season.

That leaves the Braves with the following 2018 roster after Acuna is promoted:

# Pos Player Salary WAR
1 C Flowers $4.00 4 (adding framing runs saved)
2 1B Freeman $21.00 6
3 2B Albies $0.55 4
4 3B Frazier $17.00 2.5
5 SS Swanson $0.55 2
6 LF Piscotty $1.33 2.5
7 CF Inciarte $4.70 3
8 RF Acuna $0.55 2

9 SP1 Teheran $8.00 2
10 SP2 Folty $4.00 2
11 SP3 Lynn/Cobb $18.00 3
12 SP4 Newk $0.55 2
13 SP5 Fried $0.55 2

14 BN1 M Adams $4.00 3
15 BN2 Camargo $0.55
16 BN3 Santana $1.00
17 BN4 L Adams $0.55
18 BN5 Sanchez $0.55

19 BP1 JJ $5.00 2
20 BP2 Viz $3.00
21 BP3 Freeman $0.55
22 BP4 Ramirez $0.55
23 BP5 Minter $0.55
24 BP6 Winkler $1.00
25 BP7 Wisler $0.55
Extra Kemp $18.25

Total $116.88 42

Assuming the bench provides 3 wins, and the BP provides 2 wins (double what they provided this year), 42 WAR + 48 puts the Braves right at the cusp of 90 wins in 2018 at a cost of $116M (which includes all of Kemp's salary).

If Newk or Folty is needed to acquire Piscotty, Gohara would slot into the rotation the first game a 5th SP is needed. Allard, Soroka, and Wright would be in AA/AAA ready to replace any SPs who falter.

Good post. I see them doing several thing so they don't suck going into year 2 of the new stadium. Kemp is an albatross but maybe we could eat all but maybe 5 million of his dea bc I'm sure an AL team wouldn't mind him at DH. I like the Piscotty idea but I'm. It sure what it'd take to get him. Would you choose Lynn or Cobb? I like Cobb more.

[cajunrevenge]

I like the Enscheff plan outside of Frazier. Used to be big on him but feels like he is due to fall off a cliff. I think we would end up with another Melvin situation. For the starters I would prefer Cobb. I like Piscotty, I have a thing for pure hitting prospects with moderate power. One of the few college bats I ever liked. I would like to see us sign one good relieve too. I know it's bad value but that pen just isn't good enough even assuming JJ rebounds. We aren't going to get anywhere with an average pen. God help us if Vizcaino or Minter go down and JJ does not rebound.

[nsacpi]

Polanco is another young outfielder on a very good contract having a disappointing season. He would probably cost more than Piscotty, but he brings some better qualities as well and we might match up better with the Pirates.

[mfree80]

Every now and then we still bring up Dustin Petersen. Not as sexy an option as some of the guys we are talking about, but we already own him, and he seems to have earned a chance.

[Enscheff]

I mainly targeted Piscotty because the Cards are almost certainly going to deal an OFer this winter, and his down year might've lowered the price to acquire him even though I contend he is hitting as well as ever (.340+ xwOBA).

I have no preference between Cobb and Lynn. Lynn will probably be better, but Cobb will be cheaper, so I would go for the guy providing the best value.

The same overall goal can be accomplished with other OF targets (like JD or JUp) paired with other 3B targets...even Camargo at 3B. Dumping MAdams is another way to free up some payroll.

I'm in the "wait another year" boat, but it is plausible to construct a roster with real potential to win 85-90 games this offseason.

[steveAKAslick]

The idea hinges on converting a lot of prospect capital into cheap OF production with Piscotty.

Approximately the same can be achieved by acquiring a more expensive but better LFer (like JD Martinez or JUp), and going with a Camargo/Ruiz platoon at 3B. It would probably also require getting rid of Matt Adams from the bench to save money. This route may actually be preferable.

Yeah I wouldn’t have imagined it could have been done at those $ numbers either, who’s the Sanchez you have on the bench though? suppose Dickey retires, he hinted at it last night after the game...what’s the move then?

https://sports.yahoo.com/r-dickey-ma...123018963.html

[BeanieAntics]

I mainly targeted Piscotty because the Cards are almost certainly going to deal an OFer this winter, and his down year might've lowered the price to acquire him even though I contend he is hitting as well as ever (.340+ xwOBA).

I have no preference between Cobb and Lynn. Lynn will probably be better, but Cobb will be cheaper, so I would go for the guy providing the best value.

The same overall goal can be accomplished with other OF targets (like JD or JUp) paired with other 3B targets...even Camargo at 3B. Dumping MAdams is another way to free up some payroll.

I'm in the "wait another year" boat, but it is plausible to construct a roster with real potential to win 85-90 games this offseason.

I would love to compete next year if it were possible without leveraging the sustainability of the rebuild, but I'm with you. I think kicking the can down the road to 2019 is the best move. I've always argued that, in a rebuild, the 2 things that will make it highly successful is tanking as much as possible early on, and being as patient as possible in regards to when you decide to begin your competitive window.

The Braves have been fairly mediocre with the first part by making these weird trades/signings to try to sanitize the product on the field. But I think they have been good at staying relatively patient and not making any moves that could threaten to unravel the rebuild. This offseason is gonna be big in seeing if that trend continues. I hope we stand pat for the most part, but I do fear that Ensheff may be right and we do some weird hybrid.

[mfree80]

Yeah I wouldn’t have imagined it could have been done at those $ numbers either, who’s the Sanchez you have on the bench though? suppose Dickey retires, he hinted at it last night after the game...what’s the move then?

https://sports.yahoo.com/r-dickey-ma...123018963.html

Isn't Sanchez the backup catcher we got for Brandon Phillips? His history with the Pirates suggest he could be more than organizational depth.

[steveAKAslick]

Isn't Sanchez the backup catcher we got for Brandon Phillips? His history with the Pirates suggest he could be more than organizational depth.

He’s been DFA’ed already, I think when Adonis came back

[Enscheff]

This article pretty much confirms what I already suspected: the Braves have no money to spend on roster additions this offseason because they failed to meet projected revenues.

http://markbradley.blog.myajc.com/20...h-will-change/

- The Braves “won’t be playing in big free-agent pitching waters,” preferring instead to give opportunities to younger pitchers.

- The Braves’ biggest priority this winter will be relief pitching Coppolella says. The team will look for one reliever or “preferably two.”

If their big spending plans are maybe exercising Dickey's option and adding a piece or 2 to the BP, I think it's pretty safe to conclude they have no money to spend. Even my idea based around a payroll of $120M is probably wildly out of the Braves price range.

Now....where are the pozzies? I need them to tell me the Braves will have a Top 10 payroll due to the massive success of Suntrust Park and the money printing press known as The Battery. I can't wait for the pozzy spin on this.

[msstate7]

This article pretty much confirms what I already suspected: the Braves have no money to spend on roster additions this offseason because they failed to meet projected revenues.

http://markbradley.blog.myajc.com/20...h-will-change/

- The Braves “won’t be playing in big free-agent pitching waters,” preferring instead to give opportunities to younger pitchers.

- The Braves’ biggest priority this winter will be relief pitching Coppolella says. The team will look for one reliever or “preferably two.”

If their big spending plans are maybe exercising Dickey's option and adding a piece or 2 to the BP, I think it's pretty safe to conclude they have no money to spend. Even my idea based around a payroll of $120M is probably wildly out of the Braves price range.

Now....where are the pozzies? I need them to tell me the Braves will have a Top 10 payroll due to the massive success of Suntrust Park and the money printing press known as The Battery. I can't wait for the pozzy spin on this.

Good. I want a rotation of Teheran, folty, gohara, Newcomb, and dickey/fried/sims with hopefully allard, soroka, and touki getting close to pushing their way in by the end of the season

[bravesfanMatt]

I predict many teams to not dabble in the big free agent market this off season. Not much there and most teams are going to wait just one more year. I too hope they don't dabble in this FA market call it cheap. Call it strategic. Just call me in on the idea.