Swanson & Camargo Second Half Numbers

[nsacpi]

It is so cold, dark and creepy in here.. I don't even think that rosey post is enough to make this awful place better...

I am heading back to Pozzi land where thethe acid wallpaper lines every room!!

I asked that this forum be named Realists from the outset. But my influence with the grand poobah is limited.

[Enscheff]

The 3 most lucky Braves in the 2nd half have been Inciarte (-0.062), Camargo (-0.061), and Suzuki (-0.054).

A large portion of Suzuki's luck comes in fly balls. We can also see this manifesting itself with a HR/FB rate that is 2x-3x higher than his career rate. Other guys like Adams and Freeman are enjoying similar luck on fly balls.

The bulk of Inciarte's luck has come on grounders. This is something he has done 3 years in a row, so fine, we can start to roll that into his skill set. I have no idea how or why, but it appears to be something real.

The only Braves player luckier than Inciarte on grounders? That would be Johan Camargo. Are we ready to say he has an innate ability to get hits on grounders? I'm not there yet.

FWIW, xwOBA thinks Swanson and Camargo are nearly equivalent hitters in the 2nd half (0.309 vs 0.312). A lot of those ABs came before Swanson's demotion, after which he is carrying a .337 value (Camargo obviously hasn't hit much since Swanson was promoted).

Taking into consideration all the data (minor league performances, scouting reports, my own eye test, improvements Swanson has made vs sliders), I would say Camargo's true talent is in the .300-.320 range, and Swanson's is in the .320-.340 range...which is right where I would project both players in 2018.

[nsacpi]

Camargo continues to hit...Swanson seems to have wandered back into slumplandia.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Inciarte seems to aim the ball when he hits, so some of the analytics need to be taken out of the equation with him.

[thewupk]

Inciarte seems to aim the ball when he hits, so some of the analytics need to be taken out of the equation with him.

They don't need to be taken out. Just adjusted for what seems to be an apparent skill set.

[thethe]

Camargo continues to hit...Swanson seems to have wandered back into slumplandia.

Camargo has excellent bat to ball skills. The hit tool is the most underrated one IMO. If you can't consistently make contact with the ball then you are going to have problems when the pitching gets better.

[Enscheff]

Camargo has excellent bat to ball skills. The hit tool is the most underrated one IMO. If you can't consistently make contact with the ball then you are going to have problems when the pitching gets better.

Here are numbers that measure "hit tool" comparing Camargo to all of MLB in 2017:

Stat MLB Camargo
K% 21.6% 20.5%
OContact 63.0 % 68.1 %
ZContact 85.5 % 85.2 %
Contact 77.5 % 78.7 %

Camargo appears to have an ever so slightly above average hit tool. It isn't good enough to support a walk rate of 4.8% though.

I've already shown what will happen when his BABIP drops from .370 into the .300-.320 range...he will not be an everyday player.

[thethe]

Here are numbers that measure "hit tool" comparing Camargo to all of MLB in 2017:

Stat MLB Camargo
K% 21.6% 20.5%
OContact 63.0 % 68.1 %
ZContact 85.5 % 85.2 %
Contact 77.5 % 78.7 %

Camargo appears to have an ever so slightly above average hit tool. It isn't good enough to support a walk rate of 4.8% though.

I've already shown what will happen when his BABIP drops from .370 into the .300-.320 range...he will not be an everyday player.

If his BABIP drops to that level and he has the same bb/k ratio then sure it won't look good. But you are assuming he will be in the 300-320 range which isn't a certainty and his other peripherals may increase. So there isn't one outcome for Camargos future. The odds are that you are right but it is far from an absolute.

[Enscheff]

If his BABIP drops to that level and he has the same bb/k ratio then sure it won't look good. But you are assuming he will be in the 300-320 range which isn't a certainty and his other peripherals may increase. So there isn't one outcome for Camargos future. The odds are that you are right but it is far from an absolute.

Folks also insisted on arguing with me when I said Kemp's early production was due to an unsustainable BABIP, and Matt Adams' was inflated by an unsustainable HR/FB rate. Folks also think Suzuki is an improved hitter because he's popped a few more HR than normal this year.

Just like in those cases, I suppose we will see who's right about 400 PAs from now.