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    Swanson & Camargo Second Half Numbers

    In 150 PA Swanson has turned in a slash line of .278/.387/.381. Walk rate of 15.3, strikeout rate of 18.0, ISO of .103, BABIP of .350.

    In 105 PA Camargo has turned in a slash line of .283/.324/.465. Walk rate of 5.7, strikeout rate of 18.8, ISO of .183, BABIP of .333.

    The samples are not large, but in many ways I think these numbers are more representative of what we can expect from them going forward than their first half or full season numbers.

    The most encouraging thing about both is the decline in the strikeout rate to below 20%. Swanson's strikeout rate in the first half was 23.0% and Camargo's was 21.6. I've felt all along that getting the strikeout rate below 20% was the key for both of them if they were to develop into average or above average major league regulars.

    The other numbers confirm that a bigger part of Swanson's value as a hitter will come from his on base skills. The walk rate is exaggerated a bit by hitting 8th, but even when he moves away from the 8th spot I expect it to remain fairly high.

    Camargo on the other hand has continued to develop more power. Strikeout rate below 20%, ISO of about .180 and above average defense at third is a formula for a pretty good ballplayer.
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    It is so cold, dark and creepy in here.. I don't even think that rosey post is enough to make this awful place better...

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    It is so cold, dark and creepy in here.. I don't even think that rosey post is enough to make this awful place better...

    I am heading back to Pozzi land where thethe acid wallpaper lines every room!!
    I asked that this forum be named Realists from the outset. But my influence with the grand poobah is limited.
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    The 3 most lucky Braves in the 2nd half have been Inciarte (-0.062), Camargo (-0.061), and Suzuki (-0.054).

    A large portion of Suzuki's luck comes in fly balls. We can also see this manifesting itself with a HR/FB rate that is 2x-3x higher than his career rate. Other guys like Adams and Freeman are enjoying similar luck on fly balls.

    The bulk of Inciarte's luck has come on grounders. This is something he has done 3 years in a row, so fine, we can start to roll that into his skill set. I have no idea how or why, but it appears to be something real.

    The only Braves player luckier than Inciarte on grounders? That would be Johan Camargo. Are we ready to say he has an innate ability to get hits on grounders? I'm not there yet.

    FWIW, xwOBA thinks Swanson and Camargo are nearly equivalent hitters in the 2nd half (0.309 vs 0.312). A lot of those ABs came before Swanson's demotion, after which he is carrying a .337 value (Camargo obviously hasn't hit much since Swanson was promoted).

    Taking into consideration all the data (minor league performances, scouting reports, my own eye test, improvements Swanson has made vs sliders), I would say Camargo's true talent is in the .300-.320 range, and Swanson's is in the .320-.340 range...which is right where I would project both players in 2018.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 09-14-2017 at 11:08 AM.

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    Camargo continues to hit...Swanson seems to have wandered back into slumplandia.

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    Inciarte seems to aim the ball when he hits, so some of the analytics need to be taken out of the equation with him.
    Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Camargo continues to hit...Swanson seems to have wandered back into slumplandia.
    Camargo has excellent bat to ball skills. The hit tool is the most underrated one IMO. If you can't consistently make contact with the ball then you are going to have problems when the pitching gets better.
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    his minor league K rates suggest a good chance he can bring down his major league K rate to about 15%...that would offset most of the normalization of his BABIP...i don't expect an .800 plus OPS in his next 400 ABs, but something in the .750-775 range looks realistic
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Here are numbers that measure "hit tool" comparing Camargo to all of MLB in 2017:

    Stat MLB Camargo
    K% 21.6% 20.5%
    OContact 63.0 % 68.1 %
    ZContact 85.5 % 85.2 %
    Contact 77.5 % 78.7 %

    Camargo appears to have an ever so slightly above average hit tool. It isn't good enough to support a walk rate of 4.8% though.

    I've already shown what will happen when his BABIP drops from .370 into the .300-.320 range...he will not be an everyday player.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-18-2017 at 02:03 PM.

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    Its been only 10 days since I put up the opening posts, but the second half numbers for Camargo and Swanson now look quite different. An update:

    Camargo: .293/.326/.439 in 130 PAs. BABIP .347. K rate 19.2. Walk rate 4.6.

    Swanson: .247/.346/.338. BABIP .322. K rate 20.7. Walk rate 13.4.

    The walk rate is a silver lining for Swanson. Everything else is nicht so gut.

    It will be interesting to see what the projection systems do with those two. After a while performance overrides pedigree. I don't think we've quite reached the point where Camargo projects to be the better hitter (in part because Swanson's performance last season carries some weight). But I would project something similar in terms of OPS for those two next year. Both in the .725-.775 range.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-23-2017 at 09:08 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Its been only 10 days since I put up the opening posts, but the second half numbers for Camargo and Swanson now look quite different. An update:

    Camargo: .293/.326/.439 in 130 PAs. BABIP .347. K rate 19.2. Walk rate 4.6.

    Swanson: .247/.346/.338. BABIP .322. K rate 20.7. Walk rate 13.4.

    The walk rate is a silver lining for Swanson. Everything else is nicht so gut.

    It will be interesting to see what the projection systems do with those two. After a while performance overrides pedigree. I don't think we've quite reached the point where Camargo projects to be the better hitter (in part because Swanson's performance last season carries some weight). But I would project something similar in terms of OPS for those two next year. Both in the .725-.775 range.
    What would you put as a WAR projection for Camargo using the assumption he gets 75% of the time at a minimum next season? I don't think a 2.5 WAR is an unreasonable expectation considering his defensive contributions at third.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    What would you put as a WAR projection for Camargo using the assumption he gets 75% of the time at a minimum next season? I don't think a 2.5 WAR is an unreasonable expectation considering his defensive contributions at third.
    2.5 is about right
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