Julio Teheran, it's all about the BBs and HRs

[Enscheff]

Julio Teheran is about to complete his 5th straight season of 185+ innings pitched. Below are his fWAR (pace for 2018), FIP, BB/9, HR/FB, and xwOBA (when available) values for all 5 years.

2013: 2.5 fWAR, 3.69 FIP, 2.18 BB/9, 10.1% HR/FB, NA
2014: 3.2 fWAR, 3.49 FIP, 2.08 BB/9, 8.1% HR/FB, NA
2015: 1.1 fWAR, 4.40 FIP, 3.27 BB/9, 13.0% HR/FB, 0.333 xwOBA
2016: 3.2 fWAR, 3.69 FIP, 1.96 BB/9, 10.0% HR/FB, 0.300 xwOBA
2017: 1.0 fWAR, 5.11 FIP, 3.40 BB/9, 14.6% HR/FB, 0.322 xwOBA

Everything about Julio seems to be pretty consistent year to year except the stats I bolded. His stuff is deteriorating at the rate SPs typically see their stuff decline. His K/9 rates hover right around his career mark of 7.68. Line drive rate in the low 20s. Ground ball rate in the high 30s. Fly balls right around 40%. BABIP allowed in the mid .270s.

In his good seasons, Julio has 70 grade control. In his bad seasons Julio has below average control. I would go so far as to suggest his poor control leads to the higher HR rates as well.

So how does he fix his control?

In 2015 he battled through a knee injury. Is he hurt again this year?

Does he need to have Flowers behind the plate for more of his starts?

Almost every single established Braves pitcher had much worse control this year. Colon fixed his control once he moved to the Twins. Is it a coaching problem? Is Suzuki really that bad at framing?

[bravesfanMatt]

I want to say coaching, but then some of these guys struggled even with different coaching.. However, I don't like Chuckie, so I am going to say coaching.

There is also the human element in control. If a pitcher has great defenders behind them, they are less likely to nibble. Confidence in your players covering for your mistakes can go a long way.