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Thread: Heyman - Braves expected to shop veteran outfielders

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Kemp for Russell Martin makes some sense. I think though we would have to kick in some additional value.
    This is the reason I think they just have to hold onto him and hope he doesn't become a distraction in the clubhouse when you make him a platoon guy (in the vein that Flowers and Suzuki have been a platoon - really more of a timeshare) with Adams. The two of them together should provide plenty of offense in LF in 2018, and you simply MAKE Snitker (or whomever might replace him) take whichever one's in there out when you get to the late innings. Any bad contract swap involving Kemp at this point is only likely to return someone that REALLY gets in the way somewhere where they'd actually be blocking somebody...

    1.) Martin - gets in the way of re-signing Suzuki or signing someone like Avila this winter, and keeps you from possibly playing on Grandal or Ramos next winter.

    2.) Having Kennedy on the books really scares me - his HR/9 rate keeps climbing, and that place is a canyon compared to SunTrust. While we can arguably use a veteran innings-eater for one more year, I sure wouldn't want him still on the books after next season, since even though you don't expect everybody to work out, he'd REALLY be in the way when Allard, Wright, and Soroka are so hot on this first group's heels. I'd rather keep Dickey to be that vet - there's a lot more chance the brass is willing to cut bait with him in the middle of next season even if they get nothing back.

    3.) Tulo and 4.) Ellsbury - Just me, but I don't want anywhere near either of those guys. They both strike me as "Panda-lites" who are seriously likely to get even worse from a production standpoint, and could become even bigger clubhouse distractions than Kemp could.

    There's no doubt Kemp sucks, but his offense probably isn't going to decline much more (if at all) before his contract is up, and if you can convince him you're platooning him with Adams or Markakis to keep them all healthier and more productive he'll probably be "OK" - FWIW he does seem to be pretty good in the dugout when he's been hurt and not playing, and does appear that he likes it enough here to at least ride things out as long as he's just not ignored and just made a PH.
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    This is the reason I think they just have to hold onto him and hope he doesn't become a distraction in the clubhouse when you make him a platoon guy (in the vein that Flowers and Suzuki have been a platoon - really more of a timeshare) with Adams. The two of them together should provide plenty of offense in LF in 2018, and you simply MAKE Snitker (or whomever might replace him) take whichever one's in there out when you get to the late innings. Any bad contract swap involving Kemp at this point is only likely to return someone that REALLY gets in the way somewhere where they'd actually be blocking somebody...

    1.) Martin - gets in the way of re-signing Suzuki or signing someone like Avila this winter, and keeps you from possibly playing on Grandal or Ramos next winter.

    2.) Having Kennedy on the books really scares me - his HR/9 rate keeps climbing, and that place is a canyon compared to SunTrust. While we can arguably use a veteran innings-eater for one more year, I sure wouldn't want him still on the books after next season, since even though you don't expect everybody to work out, he'd REALLY be in the way when Allard, Wright, and Soroka are so hot on this first group's heels. I'd rather keep Dickey to be that vet - there's a lot more chance the brass is willing to cut bait with him in the middle of next season even if they get nothing back.

    3.) Tulo and 4.) Ellsbury - Just me, but I don't want anywhere near either of those guys. They both strike me as "Panda-lites" who are seriously likely to get even worse from a production standpoint, and could become even bigger clubhouse distractions than Kemp could.

    There's no doubt Kemp sucks, but his offense probably isn't going to decline much more (if at all) before his contract is up, and if you can convince him you're platooning him with Adams or Markakis to keep them all healthier and more productive he'll probably be "OK" - FWIW he does seem to be pretty good in the dugout when he's been hurt and not playing, and does appear that he likes it enough here to at least ride things out as long as he's just not ignored and just made a PH.
    I don't see how Martin would be getting in the way. Suzuki has stated a desire to play on the West Coast since his kids are in CA and his family in Hawaii. After the year he has had he should be able to get that, since we are not even offering a starting gig. Alex Avila has had his best year since 2011 at 30 years old. That's not a signing you make for future value.

    No way we go after Ramos. He's already 30, has 2 bad knees and is near the bottom in pitch framing. He's going to morph in to a DH who can catch some. Grandal could be a good get, but you don't hold a spot open for one possible FA.

    On the flip side of this coin one could list every OF'er we could go after this winter or next winter if we did not have Kemp. I won't do that cause I'm not even advocating making a trade for Martin, but you're reasoning for dismissing it doesn't add up to me.

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    I am so sick of seeing Kemp play the field that I would gladly swap him for Ellsbury If the Yanks would do it. The defense of Ellsbury/Ender/Acuna would be a beautiful sight after the current outfield.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    I am so sick of seeing Kemp play the field that I would gladly swap him for Ellsbury If the Yanks would do it. The defense of Ellsbury/Ender/Acuna would be a beautiful sight after the current outfield.
    Ellsbury would be tough. Adding in the 3rd year and $5M buyout for 2022 we'd be taking on 69M compared to the 39M for two years of Kemp. Ellsbury has a full no trade clause, and with the Yankees going young they actually don't have a ton of money on the books to get rid of. They could carry Ellsbury as a 4th OF/DH.

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    Honestly the best bet is just to ride Kemp out and try to limit his playing time intelligently. No need to kick the bad contract can down the road any longer than it already is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Honestly the best bet is just to ride Kemp out and try to limit his playing time intelligently. No need to kick the bad contract can down the road any longer than it already is.
    I still think Kemp can be effective if rested properly. Treat him like an elite catcher, limiting him to 130-140 starts in LF per year by not letting him play in day games after night games, and not letting him play more than 4 games in a row. Sub for him defensively (or pinch run for him) after his AB in the 7th inning or later if the Braves have the lead or the game is a blow out (4+ run differential).

    The Braves will get ~500 PAs out of Kemp rather than ~600 PAs, but I am confident those 500 PAs will be far more productive overall.

    There is no reason Acuna can't spend a full year in AAA. Shuttling him back and forth from AAA when Kemp or Markakis get injured will both reward him and give the Braves an additional year of control. This is typical of how young players are handled.

    This notion that it is impossible to keep Acuna down next year is baffling to me and reeks of impatience.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    I don't see how Martin would be getting in the way. Suzuki has stated a desire to play on the West Coast since his kids are in CA and his family in Hawaii. After the year he has had he should be able to get that, since we are not even offering a starting gig. Alex Avila has had his best year since 2011 at 30 years old. That's not a signing you make for future value.

    No way we go after Ramos. He's already 30, has 2 bad knees and is near the bottom in pitch framing. He's going to morph in to a DH who can catch some. Grandal could be a good get, but you don't hold a spot open for one possible FA.

    On the flip side of this coin one could list every OF'er we could go after this winter or next winter if we did not have Kemp. I won't do that cause I'm not even advocating making a trade for Martin, but you're reasoning for dismissing it doesn't add up to me.
    The problem I have with Martin is that he offers nothing for the same amount of money you're paying Kemp regardless of whether you plan to sign any of those Catchers I mentioned and you're apparently willing to kick in "additional value" for him. I can't fathom a bigger waste of $40 million over two years than a 35 year old Catcher - even Kemp.

    It's not about making a bad contract swap for me - I'd be just fine with simply cutting him loose or trading him for an absolute minimal return for even a little (and I mean a miniscule amount of) salary-relief rather than trading him for a major league piece to be honest (if the choice was made to hang onto Markakis instead and play him in LF). I just don't think the brass is willing to eat money on any contract that isn't within sight of the finish line. Colon was gone anyway. Dickey will be if his option is picked up - surely they at least had a nibble or two on him before the deadline the way he was pitching, he was better than Garcia. Markakis' salary won't kill them if they release him in June to make room for Acuna, and according to Heyman's contacts they're not even willing to eat any of it to move him rather than have it come to that.

    I just wouldn't want to add someone else that could actually get in the way somewhere else, and I definitely don't think Martin would be a happy camper when he's traded to a rebuilding club AND asked to become a part-timer on such a club, and there's just no way I'd decline Flowers' option to make him (Martin) anything more than that - Flowers couldn't have done more to have earned at least the same timeshare he's been in this season moving forward IMO, and I don't disagree with those who have mentioned offering to extend him for a couple years if it can be done reasonably.

    Again, I could care less if Kemp's kept at all - I'd just prefer to eat all the money and trade him for a veteran pen arm somebody doesn't want or a marginal "prospect" lottery ticket than someone that has to be on the roster. I'm pretty much in the same boat with Markakis too.
    Last edited by clvclv; 09-19-2017 at 12:52 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    The problem I have with Martin is that he offers nothing for the same amount of money you're paying Kemp regardless of whether you plan to sign any of those Catchers I mentioned and you're apparently willing to kick in "additional value" for him. I can't fathom a bigger waste of $40 million over two years than a 35 year old Catcher - even Kemp.

    It's not about making a bad contract swap for me - I'd be just fine with simply cutting him loose or trading him for an absolute minimal return for even a little (and I mean a miniscule amount of) salary-relief rather than trading him for a major league piece to be honest (if the choice was made to hang onto Markakis instead and play him in LF). I just don't think the brass is willing to eat money on any contract that isn't within sight of the finish line. Colon was gone anyway. Dickey will be if his option is picked up - surely they at least had a nibble or two on him before the deadline the way he was pitching, he was better than Garcia. Markakis' salary won't kill them if they release him in June to make room for Acuna, and according to Heyman's contacts they're not even willing to eat any of it to move him rather than have it come to that.

    I just wouldn't want to add someone else that could actually get in the way somewhere else, and I definitely don't think Martin would be a happy camper when he's traded to a rebuilding club AND asked to become a part-timer on such a club, and there's just no way I'd decline Flowers' option to make him (Martin) anything more than that - Flowers couldn't have done more to have earned at least the same timeshare he's been in this season moving forward IMO, and I don't disagree with those who have mentioned offering to extend him for a couple years if it can be done reasonably.

    Again, I could care less if Kemp's kept at all - I'd just prefer to eat all the money and trade him for a veteran pen arm somebody doesn't want or a marginal "prospect" lottery ticket than someone that has to be on the roster. I'm pretty much in the same boat with Markakis too.
    I can acccept that logic. I wouldn't eat all of the money though. I think we could flip him and get someone to pick up 2/16 where we're basically paying the HO contract off in 2 years as opposed to 3 years. I don't think we'll get much, but it can be done.

    I was on board with Kemp this offseason and I thought he was turning things around, but the weight gain has me over him. I'm in my late 30's. I get it. It's not like it was in your 20's. It's very easy to gain weight, and hard as hell to get it off, but you're an athlete you should take care of yourself if you're making 20M a year. I don't think that's too much to ask.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I still think Kemp can be effective if rested properly. Treat him like an elite catcher, limiting him to 130-140 starts in LF per year by not letting him play in day games after night games, and not letting him play more than 4 games in a row. Sub for him defensively (or pinch run for him) after his AB in the 7th inning or later if the Braves have the lead or the game is a blow out (4+ run differential).

    The Braves will get ~500 PAs out of Kemp rather than ~600 PAs, but I am confident those 500 PAs will be far more productive overall.

    There is no reason Acuna can't spend a full year in AAA. Shuttling him back and forth from AAA when Kemp or Markakis get injured will both reward him and give the Braves an additional year of control. This is typical of how young players are handled.

    This notion that it is impossible to keep Acuna down next year is baffling to me and reeks of impatience.
    At some point you have to promote a guy if he is leveling AAA. I do not think it is a guarantee that Acuna continues to do that next spring though. If he doesn't, you absolutely can keep him down.

    But if he's looking like the repeat minor league player of the year in all of baseball, you really shouldn't just leave him there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Kemp for Russell Martin makes some sense. I think though we would have to kick in some additional value.

    To play Martin as the primary catcher? I'm not sure about that.

    Basically the same contract, so not really helping the payroll situation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I still think Kemp can be effective if rested properly. Treat him like an elite catcher, limiting him to 130-140 starts in LF per year by not letting him play in day games after night games, and not letting him play more than 4 games in a row. Sub for him defensively (or pinch run for him) after his AB in the 7th inning or later if the Braves have the lead or the game is a blow out (4+ run differential).

    The Braves will get ~500 PAs out of Kemp rather than ~600 PAs, but I am confident those 500 PAs will be far more productive overall.

    There is no reason Acuna can't spend a full year in AAA. Shuttling him back and forth from AAA when Kemp or Markakis get injured will both reward him and give the Braves an additional year of control. This is typical of how young players are handled.

    This notion that it is impossible to keep Acuna down next year is baffling to me and reeks of impatience.
    For it to be a good decision to keep him down in AAA, you would have to be prepared to also keep him down into 2019. If you're moving him up and down based on injuries, then you have to move his debut in 2019 back even further. How many top prospects have we ever seen who spent close to 2 full years in AAA, especially when they're completely dominating?

    I just don't think that's realistic at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I still think Kemp can be effective if rested properly. Treat him like an elite catcher, limiting him to 130-140 starts in LF per year by not letting him play in day games after night games, and not letting him play more than 4 games in a row. Sub for him defensively (or pinch run for him) after his AB in the 7th inning or later if the Braves have the lead or the game is a blow out (4+ run differential).

    The Braves will get ~500 PAs out of Kemp rather than ~600 PAs, but I am confident those 500 PAs will be far more productive overall.

    There is no reason Acuna can't spend a full year in AAA. Shuttling him back and forth from AAA when Kemp or Markakis get injured will both reward him and give the Braves an additional year of control. This is typical of how young players are handled.

    This notion that it is impossible to keep Acuna down next year is baffling to me and reeks of impatience.
    Totally agree with everything you said about Kemp but I don’t think the FO will be patient enough to keep Acuna down and you can basically pencil him in...kinda understand it as well, not often do you see a guy dominate two straight years in AAA and never get the call...

    I’m perfectly content with not contending next year if the FO just lets the young guys develop and give them shots in the rotation when the time comes...not totally against signing a Lynn/Cobb type pitcher but I’m not on board with trading for a frontline starter, makes zero sense to me to draft “good” young pitching only to turn around and trade those pitchers for pitching
    Last edited by steveAKAslick; 09-20-2017 at 10:50 AM.

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    I think once Acuna is called up he will be there to stay. If necessary we either will move an outfielder or have a platoon of sorts at one of the outfield positions. But we're not going to yoyo Acuna between the majors and AAA, and he isn't going to be spending much time on the major league bench.
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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    For it to be a good decision to keep him down in AAA, you would have to be prepared to also keep him down into 2019. If you're moving him up and down based on injuries, then you have to move his debut in 2019 back even further. How many top prospects have we ever seen who spent close to 2 full years in AAA, especially when they're completely dominating?

    I just don't think that's realistic at all.
    Good or bad will always be the question, but this nugget was in Bowman's mailbag too...

    "But the current sense around the club is that the young phenom will most likely be in Atlanta's Opening Day lineup next year."

    Great for those of us who want to see him (service-time be damned) right out of the gate, but tends to at least point to the fact that someone talking to Mark is pretty confident that they'll be able to move Markakis without eating any money since we know they won't likely be able to move Kemp.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    At some point you have to promote a guy if he is leveling AAA. I do not think it is a guarantee that Acuna continues to do that next spring though. If he doesn't, you absolutely can keep him down.

    But if he's looking like the repeat minor league player of the year in all of baseball, you really shouldn't just leave him there.
    I suggested shuttling him between AAA and MLB as injuries warranted it. They could even bring him up to play the OF on road trips to AL parks. Then call him up when rosters expand. He would probably get 400 PAs in AAA, and 200 PAs at the MLB level, and the Braves would gain the extra year of control.

    That seems like a win/win/win scenario to me.

    There are several ways to play this. The least efficient way is to simply add him to the roster on opening day, but I have little doubt that's what will happen.

    Two weeks...two weeks in AAA is all that's needed to gain control over his age 26 season. Surely the Braves FO is intelligent enough to understand that 2 weeks in 2018 is a small price to pay for the entire 6 months of Acuna's age 26 season. Surely they can see how much more valuable 600 PAs of Acuna in 2024 is than 50 PAs of Acuna in 2018. It's really, really, really, simple.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 09-20-2017 at 11:35 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    For it to be a good decision to keep him down in AAA, you would have to be prepared to also keep him down into 2019. If you're moving him up and down based on injuries, then you have to move his debut in 2019 back even further. How many top prospects have we ever seen who spent close to 2 full years in AAA, especially when they're completely dominating?

    I just don't think that's realistic at all.
    The headlines this Spring for Kris Bryant was he got the largest one year pre-arb contract at $1.05M. $.05 more than Trout's $1m in 2014. Honestly this is the time the Cubs should be signing him to a long term extension, but since they played the 2 week game with him I highly doubt he's going to be giving any discounts. He'll want what's owed to him. He was very vocal about that his rookie campaign.

    I'm sure the FO has an actuary on staff who weighs these decisions. It's not like they don't have a copy of the MLB rule book and some financial risk software. They weigh businesss decisions factoring in gate, merchandise, time value of money etc...

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    I think Acuna would give us an Andruwesque discount.

    Simmons did and look how we treated him. :(
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forever Fredi View Post
    I think Acuna would give us an Andruwesque discount.

    Simmons did and look how we treated him. :(
    Contract extensions are usually fair. Most guys want to have the money in hand as long as it doesn't really hurt them. I think Latin players or players drafted in the later rounds would be more open to it since they didn't get a big boy signing bonus.

    There's no guarantee a player will give you a discoun just cause you treat him fairly. We didn't hold back Hewyard on opening day when he was ready and he still didn't sign an extension (thankfully). I do know that if you do pull the Kris Bryant treatment when it's painfully obivous to everyone what you're doing that you won't get a discount.

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    Quote Originally Posted by steveAKAslick View Post
    Totally agree with everything you said about Kemp but I don’t think the FO will be patient enough to keep Acuna down and you can basically pencil him in...kinda understand it as well, not often do you see a guy dominate two straight years in AAA and never get the call...

    I’m perfectly content with not contending next year if the FO just lets the young guys develop and give them shots in the rotation when the time comes...not totally against signing a Lynn/Cobb type pitcher but I’m not on board with trading for a frontline starter, makes zero sense to me to draft “good” young pitching only to turn around and trade those pitchers for pitching
    I think on some level it makes sense if the timing is right. For example, if we were competing and had a good, but not great, rotation with several of our prospects still down in the minors, I wouldn't be against packaging some of those guys for a tangible improvement. Especially if he were controllable. But I would also be okay with not doing that and keeping a pipeline of young, cheap, controllable starters coming through to possibly extend the window. I've always believed that if you are rebuilding, the longer you kick the can down the road the more likely the rebuild is to succeed. So I would probably favor the latter strategy, but I wouldn't hate it if we went another route. However right now is most definitely not the time to think about making these decisions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    Contract extensions are usually fair. Most guys want to have the money in hand as long as it doesn't really hurt them. I think Latin players or players drafted in the later rounds would be more open to it since they didn't get a big boy signing bonus.

    There's no guarantee a player will give you a discoun just cause you treat him fairly. We didn't hold back Hewyard on opening day when he was ready and he still didn't sign an extension (thankfully). I do know that if you do pull the Kris Bryant treatment when it's painfully obivous to everyone what you're doing that you won't get a discount.
    The Cubs have halfway tried to made it up to Bryant by giving him big Pre-ARB raise but not really the same.

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