9/15 GDT

[nsacpi]

Assuming Newcomb can maintain his K rate, what does he have to get his BB rate down to be a likely success?

A difference of 5 between strikeout and walk rate equates to about a 2 WAR pitcher if he makes 30 or more starts. A difference of 6 is very good. A difference of 7 or better is elite. Need to make a small adjustment for the AL.

For reference Teheran was at 6 last year and is around 4 this year. Folty has hovered around 5 the last two years. Newcomb is around 4.5 so far in his major league career. When he first started his major league trial I thought the odds of his making it as a major league starter were around 40%. Now I think they are around 60%. He's made 17 starts (half of a full season) and both fangraphs and baseball reference have him at 1 WAR

[Enscheff]

Assuming Newcomb can maintain his K rate, what does he have to get his BB rate down to be a likely success?

If we define "success" as a consistent 3+ Win guy, Newk probably has to get into Gio range: 3.5-4 BB/9.

This assumes he continues to throw the change like he did last night...a fringe average pitch that keeps RHers honest against his 2 plus pitches.

If he reverts to being a 2-pitch guy he probably needs plus command...something like 2.5-3 BB/9.

[steveAKAslick]

If we define "success" as a consistent 3+ Win guy, Newk probably has to get into Gio range: 3.5-4 BB/9.

This assumes he continues to throw the change like he did last night...a fringe average pitch that keeps RHers honest against his 2 plus pitches.

If he reverts to being a 2-pitch guy he probably needs plus command...something like 2.5-3 BB/9.

Has Newcomb's Statcast numbers from last night been released yet? I know it's just one start but I'd like to know how last night's start compares to his others because he was noticeably better & was his best start of the year...

[BeanieAntics]

If we define "success" as a consistent 3+ Win guy, Newk probably has to get into Gio range: 3.5-4 BB/9.

This assumes he continues to throw the change like he did last night...a fringe average pitch that keeps RHers honest against his 2 plus pitches.

If he reverts to being a 2-pitch guy he probably needs plus command...something like 2.5-3 BB/9.

I haven't seen the statcast on it yet, but his changeup last night looked like a ML average pitch. It was really encouraging. But I agree that his command has to vastly improve if he is going to remain a starter.

[Enscheff]

Newk averaged 95.6 with the FA last night, and 86.9 with the change. He threw that 45 grade change almost 20 times to RHed hitters.

These are exactly the kinds of improvements he needs to make to stick as a #3 or better.

[msstate7]

Newk averaged 95.6 with the FA last night, and 86.9 with the change. He threw that 45 grade change almost 20 times to RHed hitters.

These are exactly the kinds of improvements he needs to make to stick as a #3 or better.

Is the change velocity the same as normal, but more effective bc of increase in fastball velocity?

[steveAKAslick]

Newk averaged 95.6 with the FA last night, and 86.9 with the change. He threw that 45 grade change almost 20 times to RHed hitters.

These are exactly the kinds of improvements he needs to make to stick as a #3 or better.

Thanks I was wondering about his spin rate and movement as well & if it had improved any