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  1. #121
    Sexist Pig TURBO's Avatar
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    If Trout was a FA what would be his potential contract?

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    If Stanton produces in 2018-2020 as he is projected to in this article:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-...iring-stanton/

    He will be projected to produce $258M in value in his age 31-37 seasons. In that case, he will opt out and be looking for something along the lines of $250M-$300M over 7-8 years, especially if he is on a team that isn't contending or he doesn't like for some other reason.
    As a baseball fan I hope he gets traded to an AL team and puts up three monster years so he can opt out

    30 years ago before the analytics craze GMs would be trading their first born for him. His baseball card stats are awesome. The marlins need a dinosaur organization to step up and make a trade.

  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by TURBO View Post
    If Trout was a FA what would be his potential contract?
    Dave Cameron answered exactly this question in his latest chat:

    12:46
    Hunky Dory: If Trout were a FA this winter (no extension), would he break $600MM? $700MM?
    12:46
    Dave Cameron: Depends on opt-outs and such. But yeah, over $600M.

    1:10
    Lawrence Summers: Trout gets more than $50m/12 years? Man I dunno…
    1:10
    Dave Cameron: More like 40 for 15.

    Let's perform a sanity check on that $600M+ number...

    Any team acquiring Trout would be projecting him to produce something like 80-90 wins over the rest of his career. That's $800M-$900M in value, which a team would spread out over as many years as possible to lower the AAV.

    Trout would almost certainly require at least 1, and probably 2 opt outs in his mega deal. According to this: https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/how-to-value-opt-outs/

    An opt out is worth approximately 10%-15% of the total deal, so each opt out would bring the total contract down by about $80M-$135M.

    So $800M-$900M minus 1-2 opt outs put a Trout mega contract right around $640M with 2 opt outs on the low end, and $765M with 1 opt out on the high end.

    The team would try to split that up over 15+ years to get the AAV into the $40M-$50M range, even though that means paying Trout well into his 40s.

    A team would need a $200M+ payroll to afford Trout and still avoid paying a single player 20%+ of their payroll, so this is a contract that is definitely doable for modern day baseball teams for a generational player like Trout.

    That kind of money means Mike Trout is essentially worth about half as much as an entire MLB franchise.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 11-15-2017 at 06:09 PM.

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  5. #124
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    Since everyone on the internet has a Stanton trade idea I will throw out mine.

    If the Nats can't resign Harper why not offer Harper straight up for Stanton. The Nats would get a big time player to replace Harper. The Marlins would certainly get a great return if they could trade Harper to a contender.

  6. #125
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    "One exec suggested that Miami would need to pay as much as $5MM annually in order to receive good prospect value."

    That's $50M total. Seems about right.

    If the Marlins can pay that $50M after the opt out (and therefore maybe pay nothing) and get a FV 60+ prospect (Top 25 overall) in exchange, I would consider that a win for the Marlins.

  7. #126
    Expects Huge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    "One exec suggested that Miami would need to pay as much as $5MM annually in order to receive good prospect value."

    That's $50M total. Seems about right.

    If the Marlins can pay that $50M after the opt out (and therefore maybe pay nothing) and get a FV 60+ prospect (Top 25 overall) in exchange, I would consider that a win for the Marlins.
    If they commit a potential $50M to insure against an event that has a 10-20% probability of happening and are able to parlay that into a significant better return they should do it.
    It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning. Senator Bob Corker

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    Isn't Stanton's contract now 10 years/295M? That's not even that bad. He will bring in a haul.
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  9. #128
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    A big market is the only place for Stanton or any other mega contract.

    Stanton seems like a lock to opt in only if you assume that his career year in a juiced ball season is the new normal. Id suggest that is not as likely as you think.

  10. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    "One exec suggested that Miami would need to pay as much as $5MM annually in order to receive good prospect value."

    That's $50M total. Seems about right.

    If the Marlins can pay that $50M after the opt out (and therefore maybe pay nothing) and get a FV 60+ prospect (Top 25 overall) in exchange, I would consider that a win for the Marlins.
    I wonder if a team trying to make a deal like that would ask for some sort of financial hedge in case Stanton does opt out? Like, the Marlins agree to 50 million post-option, but if he opts out the Marlins would still send 10 million to the team, just as an effort to balance out the value if Stanton does opt out. If they could figure out something like this, then the Marlins probably could fetch a pretty big return for Stanton. I don't know if what I just said made any sense at all lol

  11. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    I wonder if a team trying to make a deal like that would ask for some sort of financial hedge in case Stanton does opt out? Like, the Marlins agree to 50 million post-option, but if he opts out the Marlins would still send 10 million to the team, just as an effort to balance out the value if Stanton does opt out. If they could figure out something like this, then the Marlins probably could fetch a pretty big return for Stanton. I don't know if what I just said made any sense at all lol
    If Stanton opts out that means he likely produced $50M-$75M in surplus value from 2018-2020.

    If Stanton opts in, that likely means he is on track to produce negative value over the course of the entire contract.

    Those are the two possible outcomes...+$50M surplus value, or -$50M negative value. That's the power of the opt out for players, and why they are so incredibly valuable. They represent nothing but upside for the player, and downside for the team.

    If the Marlins wipe out all chance of Stanton being worth the negative value by picking up money after the opt out, he is worth the positive value in the opt out scenario. In that case he is easily worth a Top 25 prospect. Either way the Marlins dump the salary now, and if they luck out they get a stud prospect and don't have to pay a dime.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 11-16-2017 at 11:59 AM.

  12. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Isn't Stanton's contract now 10 years/295M? That's not even that bad. He will bring in a haul.
    Compared to what Harper and possibly Machado get, definitely not. I say possibly with Manny, because he had a "down year" and another down year might put him in the 250 million range, rather than the 300+million range.

  13. #132
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    The marlins can certainly move him by sending enough money. Thats never been a question.

    The question is whether it makes sense for the Marlins to sacrifice payroll now and possibly for a decade to pick up a few prospects. Given their history and their current needs the answer to that is almost certainly no.

    Their immediate need to shed payroll and the risk of being stuck with a destructive contract makes this an interesting bargaining ground.

  14. #133
    Expects Huge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    looks like the giants, cards and Red Sox are lining up to make offers...sometimes in these situations it's an under-the-radar team that swoops in
    It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning. Senator Bob Corker

  15. #134
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    Braves really need to go get Stanton so they don't alienate the fans...

    Before the whole Coppygate and the payroll stagnation/reduction, I felt strongly that the Braves would be players for Stanton because it's the kind of splash move that emerging teams want to make, grabbing the attention of the casual fan while adding to the chances for short term success of the team. But, given everything going on, I can't see it.

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