Scouting the FA BP arms

[Enscheff]

MLBTR just did a similar article for BP arms as they did for SPs:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...ent-class.html

Here is every pitcher mentioned in those lists ranked by their xwOBA over the last 2 years:

1 Pat Neshek 0.239
2 Anthony Swarzak 0.249
3 Tommy Hunter 0.261
4 Brandon Morrow 0.261
5 Seung Hwan Oh 0.266
6 Greg Holland 0.268
7 Bryan Shaw 0.275
8 Yusmeiro Petit 0.277
9 Wade Davis 0.278
10 Addison Reed 0.28
11 Juan Nicasio 0.283
12 Fernando Rodney 0.284
13 Luke Gregerson 0.284
14 Boone Logan 0.286
15 Tony Watson 0.288
16 Peter Moylan 0.293
17 David Hernandez 0.295
18 Joaquin Benoit 0.297
19 Brandon Kintzler 0.298
20 Craig Stammen 0.3
21 Joe Smith 0.301
22 Matt Albers 0.311
23 Dustin McGowan 0.319
24 Bud Norris 0.32
25 Jake McGee 0.322
26 Dillon Gee 0.327
27 John Axford 0.329
28 Neftali Feliz 0.336
29 Jesse Chavez 0.339
30 Jeanmar Gomez 0.345
31 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.374

If the Braves want to add 1-2 BP arms, I would say anyone from Albers at #22 and up are options. With Freeman and Minter already in the fold, and Newk and Fried strong possibilities to end up in the BP, I would suggest they focus on RHers.

[chop2chip]

I could see us being the ones to overpay Greg Holland. Seems like our FO would want Proven Closer guy.

[nsacpi]

I am a big fan of converting "failed starters" to relievers. And would cite Brad Hand (claimed by the Padres after being waived by the Marlins) and Brandon Morrow (who signed minor league contracts in both 2016 and 2017) as exhibits A and B.

If someone like Scott Kazmir gets released, I would love to see him given a look as a reliever.

[jpx7]

I am a big fan of converting "failed starters" to relievers. And would cite Brad Hand (claimed by the Padres after being waived by the Marlins) and Brandon Morrow (who signed minor league contracts in both 2016 and 2017) as exhibits A and B.

If someone like Scott Kazmir gets released, I would love to see him given a look as a reliever.

Wade Davis falls in that boat of examples, as well.

[depley]

I like Brandon Kintzler for one, low walk rate, and a great ground ball rate, both of which play well in Sun Trust Park, plus he is only 26. Signed last year for 1 year 2.93m, so would a 3 year 15 million deal get it done? Or is 3 years too long?

[Horsehide Harry]

He's a lefty but I think Jake McGee will be much better out of Coors.

[thethe]

He's a lefty but I think Jake McGee will be much better out of Coors.

Either him or Reed are my targets. Reed will be expensive but his stuff is legit.

[Southcack77]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...ent-class.html

Some more sorting by Trade Rumors.

[clvclv]

I could see us being the ones to overpay Greg Holland. Seems like our FO would want Proven Closer guy.

Yeah, but they're all still making sunny statements about Jim Johnson having a big bounce-back season in 2018 too.

Selfishly I'd love to see them go get Greg since he's a personal acquaintance, but just don't see them spending big on a closer unless they were going to do it AFTER addressing 3B and adding at least one veteran arm to the rotation. I remember all but screaming for them to sign him to a three or more year deal last winter before he blew up again and drove his price through the roof. My guess is Borass' floor for an asking price is now at least what Melancon got from the Giants (4 years/$62 million), and I just don't see any way we go near that. Davis would obviously be my next preference, but I don't think he fits for the same reasons.

Out of the next group, I really love Reed and Kintzler. Both have extended experience at the back-end, and that would give you 4 guys that are proven (loosely including Johnson with Vizcaino and those two) plus two more I think are capable of handling the Closer role if needed in Ramirez and Minter. Freeman, Winkler (once his Active Roster obligation is met), Brothers, and Jackson can then all ride the SunTrust/Gwinnett shuttle depending on who's pitching well, plus you're liable to turn at least one or two of the starters into pen pieces as Allard/Soroka/Wright get closer to forcing their way into the rotation.

I know tons of folks hate it, but I'd really like to see Cobb or Lynn signed and Folty turned into a serious weapon at the back-end of the pen - that'd really eliminate the need for a higher-priced Closer for awhile.

[cajunrevenge]

I think the FO anticipates going after Kimbrel after 2018. The big market clubs should be busy with Harper/Machado/Donaldson that we know we won't sign. I think this is why JJ for 2 years. They were hoping he could bridge the gap. We should be prime playoff contenders by 2019 and the playoffs is where elite closers earn their money.

[Southcack77]

Just listened to a short interview with Coppy with Buster Olney.

Said that the Braves need 1 maybe 2 proven "7th, 8th or 9th inning guys"

That's pretty interesting statement and consistent with what he told Bradley.

[Enscheff]

He's a lefty but I think Jake McGee will be much better out of Coors.

xwOBA takes park factors out of the equation.

Basically, I'll take the guy who is on the Top 10 lists for most Ks, least BBs, and has a sub-.300 xwOBA who signs for the least money...preferably RHed. That leaves Morrow, Neshek, Hunter, and Smith on the edge.

Brandon Morrow is probably the arm I like most, but I think he will be too expensive. He also has injury issues in his recent past, so I would be hesitant to invest big money in him.

Give me Neshek on a 1 year deal, maybe with an option. He's an 8-9 K/9 guy, should be good for less than 2 BB/9, has the best xwOBA of all available BP arms, and shouldn't require a huge contract due to being advanced in age. Probably something like $7M for 1 year plus another $7M option with a $1M buyout.

I also like Tommy Hunter on a good value deal (~$4M with an option), with Joe Smith as Plan C.

I don't see the need for 2 BP arms in a system built around pitching prospects.

[Enscheff]

Yankees are almost certain to trade Betances this off season. He has 2 years of control remaining, and will make around $4.4M next year.

His xwOBA over the last 3 seasons:
2015: 0.249
2016: 0.236
2017: 0.260

His "down" 2017 was obviously due to his BB/9 rocketing up to 6+. Despite that astronomical BB rate he still would have been the 3rd best BP arm for the Braves behind Minter and Winkler.

If he bounces back to his career BB rate of ~4, he is a 70+ grade BP arm to pair with Minter to create an insanely nasty L/R combo at the back of the Braves BP. Add Winkler, Viz and Freeman...and the Braves have a legit playoff-level BP.

The cost in prospects will likely be too high for the Braves to consider, but he is definitely the highest quality BP arm the Braves can realistically afford.

[Enscheff]

The Braves are in hot pursuit of Peter Moylan.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2017/11/...lan-per-report

It looks like I may have been shooting too high with guys like Neshek and Hunter.

The Braves may have even less money to spend than I thought...

[Chico]

If he could be had cheap I'd love to have Moylan back.

[nsacpi]

ROOGY extraordinaire. Hopefully Snit keeps him away from the lefties.

[Enscheff]

If he could be had cheap I'd love to have Moylan back.

Agreed, just a bit underwhelming considering a BP arm was stated to be the main target this offseason.

[Chico]

Agreed, just a bit underwhelming considering a BP arm was stated to be the main target this offseason.

I wouldn't assume he'd be the only one. The cheap contracts are normally the ones doles out this time of year. If we can get any role players that fit our plans and provide depth on the cheap that won't affect future moves then it's good to look at.

I'm one who has 2 relievers in my pen right now and that's Minter and Winkler.

[Hudson2]

They’ll get one more good pen piece other than Moylan. It’s always nice having a cheap option like Moylan around. Our pen when we are serious contenders in 2019 could be elite if guys like Folty or Newcomb and say Touki are moved out there.

[Enscheff]

They’ll get one more good pen piece other than Moylan. It’s always nice having a cheap option like Moylan around. Our pen when we are serious contenders in 2019 could be elite if guys like Folty or Newcomb and say Touki are moved out there.

If you were going to sign an expensive player and a cheap player, why would you sign the cheap player first and risk not having that money available to win the bidding on the expensive player?

Whoever signs someone like Hunter is going to win the bidding by $1M-$2M dollars. By prematurely committing a couple million to Moylan they could very well miss out on a real upgrade for the BP.

I'm guessing the Braves are shopping in the discount basket for a BP arm because that's all they can afford. Hope I'm wrong.