What's the best we could hope for in 2018?

[jimsnores]

Just a thought experiment... how good could the team be as currently constructed, and thus what would we need to do to get to 90 wins?

Here are what I think are attainable WAR totals next year (not necessarily likely, but possible).

Position - WAR (2017 WAR)
C - Flowers/Suzuki: 4 fWAR (4.7)
1B - Freeman: 6 (5.5)
2B - Albies: 4.5 (3.3)
3B - Ruiz/Camargo: 2 (0.4)
SS - Swanson: 2.5 (1.3)
LF - Adams/Markakis: 2 (-1.5)
CF - Ender: 3.5 (3)
RF - Acuna: 2.5 (0.8)

Total: 27 (17.5)


Improvement: ~9.5 WINS

Teheran: 2 (1.1)
Dickey: 1.5 (1.7)
Folty: 2 (1.8)
Newcomb: 2 (PACING 2.3)
Gohara: 3.5 (PACING 6)

Total: 11

Braves starting pitchers in 2017 = 8.2

Improvement: ~2.8 WINS


Not going to look at bench bullpen... but I project we could improve by ~1.5 WINS just with the bullpen additions of Winkler, Minter, etc.

So by my math, by simply dumping Kemp, our current roster stands to improve year over year by ~13-14 WINS.

This is assuming no regression... but it's not assuming wild predictions either.

So where does that leave us? Anywhere between 84-86 wins.

What do we need to get to 90? Where can we realistically improve?

We could probably pick up an extra win or two in the rotation by replacing Dickey with a Lance Lynn type.

We could potentially pick up a win by picking up a Todd Frazier at third.

We could potentially pick up a win by picking up a better player in left field.

If we did all of that, we get to the 88-90 range.

Is my math off here?

I wonder if any Twins fans did a similar exercise last year?

[50PoundHead]

I wonder if any Twins fans did a similar exercise last year?

Big difference with the Twins is that they had a slew of good-to-very good prospects (Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Vargas, Polanco, Berrios) that had recently graduated to the major leagues. I'm probably one of the few people in America who isn't all that surprised by their being in the playoffs. Their pitching is really shaky after Santana and Berrios, but their young core of position prospects is pretty solid. We simply don't have a cadre of young veterans like the Twins. I expect our younger guys to be up-and-down next year the same way the Twins' guys were last year and the year before.

I think we can be a .500 team next year if everything falls right.

[NinersSBChamps]

Big difference with the Twins is that they had a slew of good-to-very good prospects (Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Vargas, Polanco, Berrios) that had recently graduated to the major leagues. I'm probably one of the few people in America who isn't all that surprised by their being in the playoffs. Their pitching is really shaky after Santana and Berrios, but their young core of position prospects is pretty solid. We simply don't have a cadre of young veterans like the Twins. I expect our younger guys to be up-and-down next year the same way the Twins' guys were last year and the year before.

I think we can be a .500 team next year if everything falls right.

Roasario was on a tear the last two months or so. Buxton was red hot too for awhile and he actually carried them for a bit. Personally I think this is a fluke and they come crashing back to earth next year. They are better than last year, but not 25 games better. Berrios was up and down, mostly down on the road. Think they need to add a legit 2/3 starter to have any chance of hanging around next season.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Answer to the original question is rather generic: we don't know right now

We have to see what happens in the offseason. What will the rotation look like? Who's in the bullpen? Who's on third? Markakis traded? Kemp (not likely)? What about the coaching staff? There's a lot of questions that will have to be answered between After tomorrow's game and when Spring Training opens in February

[50PoundHead]

Roasario was on a tear the last two months or so. Buxton was red hot too for awhile and he actually carried them for a bit. Personally I think this is a fluke and they come crashing back to earth next year. They are better than last year, but not 25 games better. Berrios was up and down, mostly down on the road. Think they need to add a legit 2/3 starter to have any chance of hanging around next season.

Their pitching is very thin (note Colon in the rotation), but I think Rosario is for real. Buxton has really shortened his swing and isn't getting killed by breaking stuff anymore. He still has holes in his swing and I don't think he'll ever be a top-tier offensive player, but he doesn't have to be with the rest of that line-up. Polanco is the guy who probably tails off.