3B is one of the glaring needs for the Braves in 2018. It appears as if some form of a Ruiz/Camargo platoon is going to be used.
Let's try to figure out how good that combo can be. The methodology will be to look for similar batting seasons based on K%, BB% and ISO. From those similar seasons, we can get a feel for what to expect offensively from each player.
First, Rio...
There are 20 player seasons since 2000 that resemble Rio's optimistic range of K%, BB% and ISO:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leadersspli...sort=10,1&pg=0
The median batting line for this type of hitter is a .715-720 OPS.
According to the list of all 22 qualified players at 3B:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...rs=0&sort=10,d
That type of offensive production simply won't play at 3B. And that is with Rio almost always having the platoon advantage. I don't see Rio being any part of the solution in 2018, or ever.
On to Camargo...
Camargo's outlook all depends on how much you believe in his inflated ISO in AAA and MLB this season. If you believe he is the ~.115 ISO guy the projections suggest, he is similar to these 21 players:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leadersspli...sort=10,1&pg=0
The median line for those players is a .700 OPS. That guy is not playable at 3B either.
However, if you believe Camargo is actually the .150+ ISO guy he has shown to be this season, these are the comparable players:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leadersspli...sort=10,1&pg=0
The median line for that type of hitter is .750-.760. That is by no means a good offensive player at 3B, but at least now it falls in the range...even if it's in the bottom 5.
That player might be useful if he has excellent defense, and that is precisely what Camargo is at 3B. But how good? How much WAR can we expect from a glove-only guy at 3B?
Looking at the same group of qualified players at 3B sorted by the Defense portion of fWAR:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ers=0&sort=8,d
We see Camargo will probably fall into the 8-9 range with guys like Arenado and Seager. A zero for Offense plus 8-9 for Defense, plus 1 for League, plus 18 for Replacement gives a fWAR value of ~2.8.
It all depends on how much of Camargo's power is real. He is either a glove-only 2-3 WAR guy at 3B, or a utility player without enough bat to play every day at 3B and not enough range to play everyday at SS.
I think it's worth taking a look next year rather than acquiring a "sure thing" guy to post 2-3 WAR at 3B.
Ultimately, I think we see Camargo given a few hundred PAs to start the season and shows he is a utility guy. We will then see a revolving door at 3B with guys like Rio, Camargo and Adonis splitting time until Riley is given a shot late in the year. By the end of the year I expect 3B to still be a problem.
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